RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 24, 2021

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center has issued the last Public Advisory 
on Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri, moving offshore of eastern 
Massachusetts.

1. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles 
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Little development 
of this system is expected during the next day or two due while 
it moves northwestward at about 15 mph over marginally conducive 
ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds.  
Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could 
form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over 
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days from a tropical wave 
currently located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low, 
and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend 
while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located 

about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms.  Some 
development of this system is possible over the next several days 
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 
mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.  Upper-level winds are 
forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri can be found under AWIPS header 
TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Berg 

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 02:16 PM EDT

 ANOTHER STORM INVEST ADDED TO THE ATLANTIC WAVES.  BOTH OF THESE MOVE INTO DRY AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS.

RTW

188 
ABNT20 KNHC 231749
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on 
Tropical Depression Henri, located inland over southern New 
England.

A broad low pressure system is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic more than 700 miles 
west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Little development is expected  
during the next couple of days due to only marginally conducive 
ocean temperatures.  Thereafter, however, some gradual development 
will be possible through the end of the week while the system moves 
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected 
to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean 
Sea by late week.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast 
to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves 
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another area of disturbed weather has developed in association with 
a low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic 
more than 500 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some 
slow development will be possible over the next several days while 
the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at around to 
15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Henri can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3,
WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Stewart 

RTW TRACK THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 21, 2021 10:38 AM EDT

 

STORM INVEST OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SAHARA DRY AIR/ DUST AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ANY CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC EAST OF BERMUDA.  CHANCE FOR FORMATION LOW 0-30%

STORM INVEST IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS TO MOVE THROUGH SOME SHEAR AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FORMATION WOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  CHANCE FOR FORMATION LOW 0-30%

THE GFS SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE A BREEDING GROUND FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES.  I THINK ITS A BIT OVER DOING IT, BUT I WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE IN THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE COMING WEEKS.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231123
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on 
Tropical Depression Henri, located inland over southern New 
England.

A broad low pressure system is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic more than 700 miles 
west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Little development is expected  
during the next couple of days due to only marginally conducive 
ocean temperatures.  Thereafter, however, some gradual development 
is possible by the middle to latter part of the week while the 
system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected 
to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean 
Sea by late week.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast 
to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves 
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Henri can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3,
WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Stewart

STORM IVESTIGATION IN THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC

THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER OF THOSE ATLANTIC STORMS THAT MEANDERS OF NORTH ATLANTIC.

RTW

NHC TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 222348
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
downgraded Tropical Depression Henri, located inland over 
Connecticut.

Disorganized shower activity over the eastern tropical Atlantic is 
associated with a broad area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Little, if 
any, development is expected to occur during the next couple of 
days.  Some gradual development, however, is possible by the middle 
to latter part of the week as the system moves northwestward at 
10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

...HENRI MAKES LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM...

 

...TROPICAL STORM HENRI MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF RHODE ISLAND NEAR WESTERLY...

---

12:30 PM EDT Sun Aug 22
Location: 41.3°N 71.8°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

 

HENRI 0200 AM EDT UPDATE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...HENRI HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING THIS MORNING...

---

2:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 22
Location: 39.3°N 71.0°W
Moving: N at 21 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

 

...HURRICANE HENRI NOT A WELL ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM...NON THE LESS YOU MUST BE PREPARED FOR STORM SURGE FLOODING AND POWER OUTAGES...

 

HENRI AN UGLY LOOKING STORM SYSTEM AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STORM.  HENRI NOT LOOKING MUCH LIKE A HURRICANE, HOWEVER, NEITHER WAS SANDY AS THE STORM APPROACHED THE COAST.  

• A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS DIGGING SOUTH AND EAST WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH AHEAD OF FRONT USHERS IN DRY AIR AND SOME WIND SHEAR.  

• SEA SURFACE TEMPS AHEAD OF HENRI GOES FROM FAVORABLE TO LESS FAVORABLE AS THE STORM NEARS THE COAST.  WATER TEMPS ARE IN THE 70'S AND 50'S FURTHER NORTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND AREA.

• REGARDLESS OF THE HENRI WILL PUSH OCEAN WATER ON SHORE PRODUCING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE FLOODING FOR THIS REGION.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...HENRI MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...

---

5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 21
Location: 36.3°N 71.4°W
Moving: NNE at 18 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

 

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