I AM NOT LIKING WHAT I SEE, AND I HOPE THE 3 MODEL ARE WRONG, DEVELOPMENT IN GULF 2 OR 3RD WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODELS FOR PERSISTENCE.
RTW
NHC TROPICAL OUTLOOK
344 ABNT20 KNHC 311739 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Kate, located over the central tropical Atlantic. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ida, located near the Alabama/Tennessee border. Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a well-defined low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic, a few hundred miles west of the coast of Guinea. If these development trends continue, a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high..90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad area of low pressure is producing some disorganized shower activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central America. Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further development of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Tropical Depression Ida can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Reinhart
CANADIAN MODEL
EURO MODEL
GFS AMERICAN MODEL ( MOST ACCURATE THIS SEASON)
NAVGEM NAVY MODEL
