RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS...INVEST 93L, AND FUTURE STORM INVEST...SEPT 11, 2021

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the Labrador Sea. 

1. A tropical wave and an upper-level trough are producing a large area 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central 
America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico.  Although 
upper-level winds are not conducive for development currently, they 
are expected to become more favorable for the system during the next 
day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or 
Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward 
near the coast of northeastern Mexico.  Further development will be 
possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, 
and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should 
monitor the progress of this system. 

Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce 
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan 
Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and 
mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach 
portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and 
Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant 
rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of 
flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave continues to produce a concentrated area of showers 
and thunderstorms just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the 
far eastern Atlantic.  Regardless of development, this system is 
likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo 
Verde Islands later today and tonight.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of 
Africa in a few days.  Some development of this system will be 
possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward 
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi 

STORM INVESTIGATION 94L 

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...SEPT 10, 2021...09:53 AM EDT

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101116
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles 
southwest of Newfoundland, Canada. 

The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea, 
and portions of the Yucatan peninsula.  This system is forecast to 
move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface 
trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support 
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
Sunday or Monday before the system moves onshore along the western 
Gulf of Mexico coast.  Regardless of development, this disturbance 
is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Central 
America through Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast 
of Africa by tonight.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as 
the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic 
near the Cabo Verde Islands.  Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands 
should monitor the progress of this system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...SEPT 9, 2021...03:32 PM EDT

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091803 CCA
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

Corrected position reference for Larry and Mindy.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles 
east-northeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression Mindy, 
located offshore the southeast coast of the United States. 

The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western 
Caribbean Sea.  This system is forecast to emerge over the southern 
Bay of Campeche on Saturday.  Environmental conditions are expected 
to be conducive to support some gradual development of this 
disturbance before it moves over mainland Mexico early next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast 
of Africa Saturday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression 
could form late this weekend or early next week as it moves 
west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde 
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Mindy are issued under WMO 
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Mindy are issued under 
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...SEPT 9, 2021...10:16 AME EDT

 

NEW INVEST /TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA HAS A 50% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  AT THIS TIME AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  IF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WEST THEN TEMPS ARE WARMER AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR THE INVEST OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE TEMPS ARE OCEAN TEMPS ARE FAVORABLE.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091146
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression Mindy, 
located inland over southeastern Georgia. 

The northern portion of a tropical wave over northeastern 
Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea is forecast to emerge over 
the southern Bay of Campeche on Saturday.  Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive to support some gradual development of 
the system before it moves over mainland Mexico early next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast 
of Africa on Saturday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression 
could form by early next week as it moves west-northwestward over 
the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Mindy are issued under WMO 
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Mindy are issued under 
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

 

...TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORMS IN THE NORHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

 

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

---

4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 8
Location: 29.0°N 86.3°W
Moving: NE at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

 

...SPECIAL UPDATE...91L CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AS MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING EAST OF A BROAD CIRCULATION...WE COULD SEE A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM FORM AT ANYTIME...

 

SPECIAL UPDATE...INVEST 91L CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS NORTH EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA.  WE COULD SEE A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANYTIME.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE COAST.

RTW

 

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen, located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

Special Message from NHC

Issued 8 Sep 2021 20:07 UTC

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081919
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
320 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in 
the Gulf of Mexico. 

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda.

Updated:  Satellite and radar data indicate that shower and 
thunderstorm activity continues to gradually become better organized 
in association with an area of low pressure located about 115 miles 
southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. In addition, satellite-derived 
wind data indicate that the circulation has become somewhat better 
defined today. If these development trends continue, advisories will 
likely be initiated on this system as a tropical depression or 
tropical storm later this afternoon, and tropical storm warnings 
could be required for portions of the coast of the Florida 
Panhandle. After reaching the Florida Panhandle tonight, this system 
is expected to move across the southeastern United States and emerge 
over the western Atlantic by late Thursday, where environmental 
conditions appear unfavorable for additional development.  
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across 
portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through 
Thursday, with localized flooding possible. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western coast of 
Africa in a few days.  Some development of this system is possible 
thereafter as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern 
Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Papin

...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 8, 2021...02:41 PM EDT...91L A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA...

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081742
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles
east-southeast of Bermuda.

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
today in association with a surface trough and an upper-level
disturbance over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. In addition,
recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a broad area of low
pressure may be forming. The system is expected to move
northeastward through this evening, and a tropical depression could
form before it reaches the northeastern Gulf coast tonight or early
Thursday. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern
United States and emerge over the western Atlantic late this week,
where environmental conditions appear unfavorable for additional
development. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are
likely across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia
through Thursday, with localized flooding possible.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western coast of
Africa in a few days.  Some development of this system is possible
thereafter as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE... SEPT 8, 2021...10:01 AM EDT

 

HEAVY RAINS MOVING NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 91L.  NEW INVEST FOR A WAVE OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081154
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles 
southeast of Bermuda.

Disorganized cloudiness and a few thunderstorms over the central 
and eastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough 
and an upper-level disturbance.  The system is expected to move 
northeastward over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later today.
Upper-level winds could become slightly more favorable to support 
some tropical or subtropical development as the system nears the 
northern Gulf coast tonight or early Thursday.  The disturbance is 
then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some 
additional development will be possible after it emerges off the 
southeastern United States coast late this week.  Regardless of 
development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across 
portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through 
Thursday, with localized flooding possible.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western coast of 
Africa in a few days.  Some development of this system is possible 
thereafter as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern 
Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto