DAY 1-3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
(CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS)
SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK DAY 4-8 ANIMATION
NOTE DAYS 6-7 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NEED TO KEEP MONITORING IN THE COMING WEEK!
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
(10%-40%)
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
DAY 1-3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
(CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS)
NOTE DAYS 6-7 SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NEED TO KEEP MONITORING IN THE COMING WEEK!
(10%-40%)
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 830 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development over the central Atlantic. 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 900 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become somewhat better organized this morning, though frontal features remain attached to the low. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form within the next day or so. By Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting the chance for additional subtropical or tropical development of the system. Additional information on this low, including warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EST Wednesday, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Papin
DAY 1 HAIL OUTLOOK LESS THAN 5% ALL AREAS
DAY 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK
INVEST 99L WILL BE MOVING INTO A COOLER WATERS BUT MOST OF THE MODELS STILL INSIST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST .
EURO AND GFS ARE HINTING THAT 99L COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS NOT A THREAT TO THE U.S..
RTW
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 845 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic. 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting subtropical or tropical development of the system. Additional information on this low, including warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EST tonight, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
EXCESSIVE RAINFLL OUTLOOK DAYS 1-3 ANIMATION AND NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST MAP.
RTW
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAYS 1-3
NATIOANL FORECAST MAP
A DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC THAT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS IN THIS AREA DURING A DAY OR SO, BEFORE IT MAKES A COMPLETE COUNTER CLOCKWISE LOOP, AND BEGINS A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO MODEL ARE FORECASTING A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AS IT TRACKIS NORTHEAST IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH SEAS AND LARGE SWELLS WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THE SHIPPING LANES.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AND WILL NOT BE A THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST, BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, OR THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE AZORES ISLANDS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY, S IT WILL HAVE A LARGE WIND FIELD RADIUS..
RTW
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
900 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.
1. A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic about 750 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some
subtropical characteristics while it drifts northeastward during the
next few days. By Thursday night or Friday, however, the low is
expected to move over cooler waters, ending its chances of becoming
a subtropical cyclone. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EST today or
earlier.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Forecaster Cangialosi/Pasch
A LOOK AT WHAT EURO SUGGEST IT WILL LOOK LIKE BY THIS SATURDAY.