..LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BUSY WEATHER DAY FOR NORTHERN TEXAS AND FLORIDA WITH AREA OF ENHANCED/SLIGHT RISK TODAY..

 

STORM PREDICITION CENTER

...FL Peninsula...
   Scattered, mainly afternoon to early-evening thunderstorms are
   expected across central and south FL, offering large hail and
   isolated damaging to severe gusts.  The greatest convective coverage
   potential and most-favorable environmental parameter space for
   significantly severe hail appears to be over portions of central/
   east-central FL this afternoon, where supercells with significant
   hail (2+ inches diameter) may occur.  Isolated damaging/severe
   downbursts also may occur, and a tornado is possible with help from
   storm-scale/boundary processes.

BUSY WEATHER DAY IN STORE FOR TEXAS AND FLORIDA WITH AN ENHANCED/ SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.  STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR UPDATES TO THEIR GRAPHICS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

RTW

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT:

ENHANCED RISK: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

SLIGHT RISK: Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Shreveport, LA...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...

MARGINAL RISK: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT:

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Irving, TX...Grand Prairie, TX...

10% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Irving, TX...Grand Prairie, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Abilene, TX...Richardson, TX...Killeen, TX...

2% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS:

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Irving, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Fort Worth, TX...Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...Shreveport, LA...

5% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING HAIL:

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...

5% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Austin, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...

NATIONAL FORECAST CHART FROM WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER.

..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY APR. 25, 2023...

 

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK.  SEE THE RISK AREAS BELOW.  SOUTHEAST FLORIDA HAS A MARGINAL RISK AS WELL TODAY.

CHECK STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY:

SLIGHT RISK: Austin, TX...Waco, TX...Abilene, TX...Killeen, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...

MARGINAL RISK: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADO TODAY:

5% PROBABILITY: Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...San Angelo, TX...Altus, OK...Brownwood, TX...

2% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR HAIL TODAY:

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...San Angelo, TX...Kerrville, TX...Altus, OK...

10% PROBABILITY: Austin, TX...Waco, TX...Abilene, TX...Killeen, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS TODAY:

5% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...

NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS FROM WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER.

FRONT ANALYSIS MAP FROM WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER.

..TODAY'S SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVERE STORMS..

 

TODAY'S SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK AND THERE IS ALSO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT THIS AREA AS WELL.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP TODAY.

GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN PRODUCE FLOODING AND HAIL POSSIBLE.  WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS YOU CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

STAY ALERT AND BE STORM READY.  

RTW

AREAS AT RISK FOR TODAY:

SLIGHT RISK: Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...Coral Springs, FL...

MARGINAL RISK: Miramar, FL...Brandon, FL...Deltona, FL...Carol City, FL...Country Club, FL...

TORNADO PROBABILITY AREAS:

2% PROBABILITY: Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...Coral Springs, FL...

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY AREAS:

15% PROBABILITY: Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...Coral Springs, FL...

5% PROBABILITY: Miramar, FL...Brandon, FL...Deltona, FL...Carol City, FL...Country Club, FL...

HAIL PROBABILITY AREAS:

15% PROBABILITY: Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...Coral Springs, FL...

5% PROBABILITY: Miramar, FL...Brandon, FL...Deltona, FL...Carol City, FL...Country Club, FL...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 165
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   235 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Central and South Florida
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly intensify this
   afternoon across the watch area as an upper trough approaches.  The
   strongest storms will pose a risk of hail and damaging wind gusts.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest
   of Melbourne FL to 45 miles south of West Palm Beach FL. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   28025.

   ...Hart

..DAY 1 MONDAY APRIL 24, 2023 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK, AND MORE..

 

TODAYS SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA.  CHECK AREAS THAT COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY ON BELOW STORM PREDICITION CENTER CHARTS.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS:

MARGINAL RISK: Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...Coral Springs, FL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS:

Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...Coral Springs, FL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR HAIL:

Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...Coral Springs, FL...

THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY:

DAYS 1-3 NATIONAL FORECAST CHART FROM WEATHER PREDICITION CENTER.

FRONT ANALYSIS CHARTS FROM WEATHER PREDITION CENTER.  THIS FORECAST IS VALIID FROM APR 24 THROUGH MAY 1.

DAYS 1-3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.

RAINFALL OUTLOOK FORECAST VALID APRIL 24-APRIL 27

..TODAYS THURSDAY APRIL 20, 2023 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK..

 

TODAYS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR SLIGHT TO A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVRE STORMS, PER STORM PREDICITION CENTER.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS:

SLIGHT RISK: Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...

MARGINAL RSIK: Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Laredo, TX...Springfield, MO...Cedar Rapids, IA...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADO:

5% PROBABILITY: Madison, WI...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Naperville, IL...Joliet, IL...

2% PROBABILITY: Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Milwaukee, WI...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS:

15% PROBABILITY: Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Milwaukee, WI...

5% PROBABILITY: Madison, WI...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Naperville, IL...Joliet, IL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING HAIL:

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Corpus Christi, TX...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Milwaukee, WI...

5% PROBABILITY: Chicago, IL...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Laredo, TX...Springfield, MO...

..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY APRIL 19, 2023..

 TOMORROW WEDNESDAY APRIL 19, 2023 THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS PER THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER.

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT RISK: Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...

MARGINAL RISK: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Madison, WI...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL..

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

5% PROBABILITY: Wichita, KS...Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Derby, KS...

2% PROBABILITY: Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Topeka, KS...Lawton, OK...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

15% PROBABILITY: Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...

5% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Madison, WI...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING HAIL.

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Lawton, OK...Council Bluffs, IA...

15% PROBABILITY: Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...

5% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Madison, WI...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...

..MESO DISCUSSION 551 ISSUED BY STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA..

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0551
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1009 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

   Areas affected...south Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171509Z - 171645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A storm or two may briefly become severe across the
   southern Florida Peninsula over the next few hours. Strong
   thunderstorm gusts or a brief tornado are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing late this morning both along the
   southwest FL coast and near the southeast coast. An isolated
   supercell west of FLL is likely occurring near an outflow boundary
   and low-level confluence zone. Though both areas of convection are
   being supported by modest large-scale ascent due to a passing weak
   shortwave impulse in southwesterly deep-layer flow. The 12z RAOB
   from MFL indicates steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally
   moist boundary-layer. This is contributing to moderate instability
   across the region. Latest VWP data suggests vertical shear has
   decreased from the time of the morning RAOB, but is likely still
   sufficient for at least transient organized convection, especially
   near the outflow boundary where backed low-level winds will result
   in enhancement of shear. Overall peak in limited severe potential is
   expected over the next couple of hours before the threat diminishes
   through the afternoon. A couple of strong thunderstorm gusts, small
   hail or a brief tornado may accompany this activity in the near
   term. Given the limited potential and short-duration of the threat,
   a watch is not expected at this time.

   ..Leitman/Grams.. 04/17/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26158190 26648129 26698006 26557979 25707984 25288004
               25108044 25198080 25398133 25558169 26158190