ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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We are in a brief lull from storm development. This gives you a sense that hurricane season is over, but in reality, it is not as the Climate Prediction Center (Global Tropics Hazard Outlook) map has been suggesting. This brief lull comes to an end early next week.
The GEFS and GEPS ensembles show a probability of low pressure forming in the southern and central Caribbean. The EPS (EURO) ensemble is not yet on board with development, but that does not mean it won't show development in the coming model runs.
So we relax for now and will begin to monitor next week as we enter a short peak in mid-November for possible development. I will keep you posted in the coming days and into next week.
So far, high pressure has been in control and protecting us, and I hope that continues. I do see another strong, high-pressure ridge building over the east and southeast by Monday and Tuesday of next week. This will once again produce a strong pressure gradient, with strong gusty winds and rough surf next week. This has been the pattern, but if this low or storm lingers to the south and the high weakens, the low or storm could track north or north-northeast if another front moves in. Lets be vigilant and storm ready as we have been this season.
RTW
000 ABNT20 KNHC 071120 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Papin
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Mon Nov 6 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Showers and storms have developed along the tail end of a stationary frontal boundary that extends into the northwest Caribbean. The front and a surface trough are interacting, and strong storms with heavy rains, gusty winds, and lightning have developed east of Yucatan. This area is also being enhanced by Invest 97L moisture, which will be spreading heavy rains over central America over the night and on Saturday. The Yucatan may see these storms move inland over night and Saturday if they hold together.
RTW
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Western Caribbean Sea (AL97): A broad area of low pressure continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea. Further development of this system appears unlikely before it moves inland over Central America tonight or on Saturday. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rains over portions of Central America through the weekend. This rainfall could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi
High pressure remains in control keeping any Caribbean development south and tracking west to southwest. The 2023 season also seems to be winding down, with some probabilities that something could develop according the the Climate Prediction Center (Global Tropics Hazards Outlook).
RTW
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Caribbean Sea (AL97): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the central and western Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur before it moves inland over Central America on Saturday. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of Jamaica through tonight and across Central America on Friday and over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi
