..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE NOVEMBER 13, 2023..

 

The ensemble models show the storm investigation in the Caribbean, tracking northeast as a frontal boundary tracks east and the high to the northeast weakens and allows this system to track out over the Atlantic. However, Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this developing weather system.

The second system I am monitoring is a low attached to a cold front over the western Gulf. Most of the models suggest that this winter-type low will track east and drag the low and a cold front across Florida. This system will be accompanied by gusty winds and storms by Wednesday or Thursday. So far, it does not look like this will be tropical in nature, but it could intensify as it tracks northeast over the Atlantic.

This is typical EL Niño conditions and what to expect this winter.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development of 
this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could 
form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward 
across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Papin

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE 0108 AM EST NOVEMBER 12, 2023..

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea around the middle of the week. Thereafter, 
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, 
and a tropical depression could form late this week while the 
system drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake

..TRACKING THE TROPICS 0100 PM EST UPDATE NOVEMBER 10, 2023..

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system 
while it drifts slowly, remaining in the Caribbean Sea through the 
latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE NOVEMBER 10, 2023..

 

So I continue to monitor a surface trough in the southern Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation. The National Hurricane Center now has a storm investigation area in the Southern Caribbean, with a low 20% chance that low pressure will form in this area during the next few days or into early next week.

The track of this system is still uncertain, as there is no center to track at this time. However, most of the ensemble models have this system tracking northeast. I will keep monitoring and reporting on this blog daily.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure could form in the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.  Some gradual development 
of this system is possible thereafter while it moves little. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
 

Forecaster Cangialosi

  

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE NOVEMBER 9, 2023..

 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091128
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin