..TROPICAL STORM BERYL UPDATE JUNE 28, 2024 1120 PM EDT..

Tropical depression two upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl earlier this evening. Since Beryl is tracking in the lower latitudes, it has taken advantage of favorable atmospheric conditions in the upper levels and avoided the Saharan dust and dry air. 

Conditions north of 10°North and between 60°West and 50°West are presently not favorable in the upper-levels; however, they are forecast to become somewhat favorable for further strengthening, and Beryl is forecast to be a hurricane when crossing the Windward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for a Cat 2 hurricane, but some intensity models show Cat 3 or 4.

So far, models are tracking Beryl Westward and are expected to turn Beryl more to the west-northwest across the Caribbean and not Florida. I will continue to monitor, but so far it looks like a Lesser Antilles threat, followed by Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and possibly Yucatan. 

RTW

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BERYL... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

11:00 PM AST Fri Jun 28 Location: 9.3°N 43.6°W Moving: W at 18 mph Min pressure: 1006 mb Max sustained: 40 mph

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Total Precipitable Water

Upper-Level Winds

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE JUNE 27, 2024 10:18 AM..

 

Storm Invest 95L has dry air and upper-level conditions to the north of its location.  This will some what hinder development as it tracks west-northwest and gains latitude.

Model ensemble are in agreement with a west-northwest track until it reaches the eastern Caribbean and then they begin to spread outward due to errors.  The black mean line is what you should monitor.

The Intensity models are hinting at a cat-2-3 in the storm in the Caribbean so folks who live in the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean Islands like Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should continue to monitor the progress of 95L.

Monitor NHC for the latest updates on 94L and 95L.

RTW

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea is producing 
widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity while 
it moves westward at around 20 mph.  Some development of 
this system is possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or 
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive, and development of this system is anticipated.  A 
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form this weekend 
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system 
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


Forecaster Pasch

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050 
ACCA62 KNHC 271311
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT jueves 27 de junio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Caribe Occidental/Suroeste del Golfo de México (AL94): Una onda
tropical sobre el oeste del Mar Caribe está produciendo actividad
generalizada pero desorganizada de aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas
mientras se mueve hacia el oeste a alrededor de 20 mph. Es posible
algún desarrollo de este sistema sobre el noroeste del Mar Caribe o
sobre el suroeste del Golfo de México durante los próximos días.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...30 por ciento.

Atlántico Tropical Este (AL95): Una onda tropical localizada varios
cientos de millas al oeste-suroeste de las Islas de Cabo Verde
continúa produciendo actividad de aguaceros desorganizados y
tormentas eléctricas. Se pronostica que las condiciones ambientales
serán propicias y se anticipa el desarrollo de este sistema. Es
probable que una depresión tropical o tormenta tropical se forme
este fin de semana varios cientos de millas al este de las Islas de
Barlovento mientras el sistema se mueve hacia el oeste a 15 a 20
mph.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...media...40 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...alta...70 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Pasch

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

The black mean line is the most likely track for 95L so we monitor for deviations.

Euro spreads out around the Central Caribbean.

Ensemble have a wide spread beyond 5-days.

Upper-Level winds northwest of 95L remains unfavorable at this time.  

Dry air and Saharan dust north of where 95L is located,

and lacking thunderstorms in this animation.

..TRACKING THE TROPICS JUNE 26, 2024 10:07 PM EDT..

 

In the Sahara dust satellite, you can see that Storm Investigation 95L is rapped in dry air and dust by July 29, 2024. The dust and upper-level winds will slow down development. However, the ship model suggests that 95L will develop. Once again, it is too soon to say that this system will develop; however, the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of 95L.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 262322
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A tropical wave over the west-central Caribbean Sea is producing 
widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity while 
it moves rapidly westward at around 25 mph.  Environmental 
conditions could become more conducive for some gradual development 
later this week over the western Caribbean Sea or over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite images indicate that a tropical wave located several 
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better 
organized since yesterday with a more concentrated area of 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
unusually conducive for late June across the central and western 
tropical Atlantic, and further development of this system is 
anticipated.  A tropical depression or tropical storm could form 
this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands 
while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

---------------------------------------------------------------------

620 
ACCA62 KNHC 262323
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 PM EDT miércoles 26 de junio de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Caribe Occidental/Suroeste del Golfo de México (AL94): Una onda
tropical sobre el centro oeste del Mar Caribe está produciendo
actividad generalizada pero desorganizada de aguaceros y tormentas
eléctricas mientras se mueve rápidamente hacia el oeste a alrededor
de 25 mph. Las condiciones ambientales podrían volverse más
propicias para algún desarrollo gradual más tarde esta semana sobre
el oeste del Mar Caribe o sobre el suroeste del Golfo de México
durante el fin de semana.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...20 por ciento.

Atlántico Tropical Este (AL95): Las imágenes de satélite indican que
una onda tropical localizada varios cientos de millas al suroeste de
las Islas de Cabo Verde se ha vuelto mejor organizada desde ayer con
un área más concentrada de tormentas eléctricas. Se pronostica que
las condiciones ambientales serán inusualmente propicias para fines
de junio a través del Atlántico tropical central y oeste, y se
anticipa un mayor desarrollo de este sistema. Una depresión tropical
o tormenta tropical podría formar este fin de semana varios cientos
de millas al este de las Islas de Barlovento mientras el sistema se
mueve hacia el oeste a 15 a 20 mph.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...30 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...media...60 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Blake

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***