Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

Saturday, August 3, 2024

..TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AUG 3, 2024 0500 PM EDT..

EVEN THOUGH DEBBY CENTER WILL NOT PASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WE ARE ON THE DIRTY SIDE OF THIS STORM, AND THAT IS WHERE THE HEAVY RAINS DEVELOP IN BANDS.

SATELLITE THAT THE CENTER OF DEBBY IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST GULF, THE MOISTURE IS BUILDING OVER THE OUTER BANDS OF THE STORM, AND FILLING IN OVER FLORIDA. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER NIGHT AS THESE CELLS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. DEBBY IS A SLOW MOVER, SO PREPARE FOR PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINS, GUST IN SQUALLS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

RTW

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DEBBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA...
5:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 Location: 23.9°N 83.2°W Moving: NW at 15 mph Min pressure: 1007 mb Max sustained: 40 mph

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE CUBAN COAST 1100 PM EDT UPDATE..

DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE CUBAN COAST

There are some bands of strong storms moving through the Florida straits and could affect the lower keys over night. I am not seeing as many thunderstorms as there were earlier today, but that is probably due to the interaction with land.

I am reporting from Naples Beach, Florida. I will be off and on via phone and on my laptop at night.

RTW

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY...
11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 Location: 21.4°N 79.7°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 1010 mb Max sustained: 30 mph

Friday, August 2, 2024

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 2, 2024.. ..WATCH AND WARNINGS MAYBE GOING UP FOR A PORTION OF FLORIDA WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON..

Invest 97L is partially over Northeast Cuba but it is looking well organized. So Florida Florida Key and the Florida west coast needs to continue monitoring NHC updates through the day I am heading out of town so I will do updates from phone and laptop at times.

Southeast Florida will experience some outer bands from this system as it tracks east of the Southwest Florida coast. Strong Gusty winds and brief heavy rains, are possible and localized flooding is also possible if the bands of storms train over the same area for a period of time. We will be on the dirty side of this system so this is something to be aware of on Saturday. This is the Hwrf models forecast and that will change in time. So this is just a heads up, if this model is correct you know what to expect. Be storm ready!

And remember to monitor The National Hurricane Centers updates!

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the 
southeastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and the adjacent waters of the 
southwestern Atlantic.  The wave is expected to move near or over 
Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida 
tonight or Saturday.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of 
Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.  
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of 
Florida later today.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash 
flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend, 
and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the 
progress of this system.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi

-----------------------------------------------------------------

845 
ACCA62 KNHC 021130
TWOSAT
ACCA62 KNHC 021130
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT viernes 2 de agosto de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Estrechos de Florida y este del Golfo de México (AL97): Una onda
tropical bien definida está produciendo una gran área de aguaceros y
tormentas eléctricas mal organizadas sobre el este de Cuba, La
Española, el sureste de Bahamas y Jamaica, así como las aguas
adyacentes del Atlántico suroeste y el Mar Caribe. Se espera que la
ola se mueva cerca o sobre Cuba durante el día y luego emerja sobre
los Estrechos de Florida esta noche o el sábado. Se espera que las
condiciones ambientales sean propicias para un desarrollo adicional
después de ese tiempo, y es probable que se forme una depresión
tropical este fin de semana sobre el Estrecho de Florida o el este
del Golfo de México cerca de la Península de Florida. Podrían
requerirse vigilancias o avisos de tormenta tropical para porciones
de Florida más tarde hoy.

Independientemente del desarrollo, las fuertes lluvias podrían
causar áreas de inundaciones repentinas a través de Florida, Cuba y
las Bahamas hasta el fin de semana, y los intereses en estos lugares
deben continuar monitoreando el progreso de este sistema. Un avión
Cazahuracán de la NOAA está programado para investigar este sistema
más tarde hoy.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...medio...60 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...alta...90 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Beven

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

Thursday, August 1, 2024

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 1, 2024 0200 PM EDT..

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded formation chance to LOW 30% within 48 hours and high 70% formation chance through 7 days. So the likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the eastern Gulf is increasing. Stay alert and ready in case your area is threatened by this slow-developing tropical system.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, 
the Southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters of the 
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of 
this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while 
it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles. 
However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive 
for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next 
week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. 
Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida 
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


Forecaster Beven

--------------------------------------------------------------------

979 
ACCA62 KNHC 011735
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
200 PM EDT jueves 1 de agosto de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Atlántico suroeste y este del Golfo de México (AL97): Una onda
tropical bien definida está produciendo una gran área de aguaceros y
tormentas eléctricas desorganizadas sobre La Española, Puerto Rico,
el sureste de Bahamas y las aguas adyacentes del Atlántico suroeste
y el noreste del Mar Caribe. El desarrollo de este sistema debe ser
lento durante el próximo día más o menos mientras se mueve hacia el
oeste-noroeste sobre porciones de las Grandes Antillas. Sin embargo,
se pronostica que las condiciones ambientales serán más propicias
para el desarrollo después de que la ola pase por las Grandes
Antillas, y es probable que se forme una depresión tropical este fin
de semana o a principios de la próxima semana sobre el Golfo de
México cerca de la Península de Florida. Los intereses a través de
las Grandes Antillas, las Bahamas y Florida deben continuar
monitoreando el progreso de este sistema.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...30 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...alta...70 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Beven

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***