..TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 26, 2024 1009 PM EDT..

 

Ensemble sending out smoke signals that September could be active.  So we wait and see  as always.

330 
ABNT20 KNHC 262333
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the 
Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of 
this system by this weekend into early next week as it moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

-------------------------------------------------------------------

259 
ACCA62 KNHC 262334
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 PM EDT lunes 26 de agosto de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Atlántico Tropical Central: Un área de baja presión podría formarse
en la porción central del Atlántico Tropical en unos pocos días. A
partir de entonces, las condiciones ambientales parecen generalmente
favorables para algún desarrollo lento de este sistema para este fin
de semana hasta principios de la próxima semana a medida que se
mueve hacia el oeste a oeste-noroeste a 10 a 15 mph.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...cerca del 0 por
ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...20 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Papin

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..ERNESTO UPDATE 0800 AM EDT AUG 16, 2024..

 

Good morning, This morning I reviewed the water vapor satellite and upper-level forecast and have noticed that Hurricane Ernesto's west quadrant storm structure, including the western eyewall, is disrupted. At this time, an upper-level forecast map courtesy of  UW-CIMSS shows Ernesto is being shear along the west quadrant but also has dry air intrusion getting in through the storms inflow. However, recon flight from this morning said that although Ernesto is going through a hostile environment, it has managed to hold intensity at 100 mph sustain winds. So for now, the strengthening has stopped. Let's hope that the wind shear and the dry air will weaken Ernesto before passing near Bermuda. Also I noticed that Ernesto's track has shifted to the right of previous track and this would keep the center of Ernesto to the east of Bermuda. However, a slight wobble back to the west, then the center would pass directly over Bermuda.  Being the the west quadrant is being disrupted it would be beneficial that Ernesto would stay to the east of Bermuda.

RTW

...ERNESTO APPROACHING BERMUDA, WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING STARTING LATER TODAY...

8:00 AM AST Fri Aug 16 Location: 28.9°N 66.5°W Moving: NNE at 13 mph Min pressure: 968 mb Max sustained: 100 mph

..HURRICANE ERNESTOR HEADING TOWARD BERMUDA.. ..HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.. ..AUG 15, 2024 1150 AM EDT..

 

I just noticed that Ernesto is in a marginally favorable environment and soon a hostile upper-level environment with increasing wind shear.  Lets hope it weakens the storm some before reaching Bermuda.

RTW

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... ...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND...

11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 15 Location: 25.0°N 69.2°W Moving: N at 14 mph Min pressure: 975 mb Max sustained: 85 mph

..ERNESTO IS NOW A HURRICANE AND DRENCHING PUERTO RICO WITH HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODS.. ..NEXT STOP FOR ERNESTO IS BERMUDA 1100 AM EDT AUG 14, 2024..

 

Ernesto took a track further to the west and all of the bulk of the rains from Ernesto shifted west over the island of Puerto Rico, causing flash flooding and landslides in some areas. Reports from emergency managers of trees blocking roads and businesses. Also snapped poles with down power lines. Bands of heavy rains with gusty winds continue to train over the same areas, and flash flood warnings are in effect for some areas that are affected by these torrential downpours. Next stop for Ernesto Bermuda.

 

RTW

...ERNESTO BECOMES A HURRICANE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO... ...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS HEAVY RAINS PERSIST...

11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 14 Location: 20.5°N 67.6°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 991 mb Max sustained: 75 mph