..TROPICAL OUTLOOK SEPT. 13, 2024..

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Seven, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. 
The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical 
Cyclone Francine, located inland over northeastern Arkansas.

1. Northern Leeward Islands (AL94):
Surface observations indicate a small area of low pressure is 
located over the northern Leeward Islands. The system continues to 
produce showers and thunderstorms this morning, but they have not 
become any better organized. Environmental conditions, including the 
proximity of dry air, do not favor development of this system while 
it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible 
across the northern Leeward Islands today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal 
boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline 
this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development 
is possible during the early part of next week while the system 
moves generally northwestward toward the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

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408 
ACCA62 KNHC 131136
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT viernes 13 de septiembre de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Sistemas Activos: El Centro Nacional de Huracanes está emitiendo
advertencias sobre la Depresión Tropical Siete, ubicada sobre el
Océano Atlántico tropical central. El Centro de Predicción del
Tiempo está emitiendo advertencias sobre el Ciclón Pos-Tropical
Francine, ubicado tierra adentro sobre el noreste de Arkansas.

Islas de Sotavento Norte (AL94): Las observaciones de superficie
indican que una pequeña área de baja presión se localiza sobre las
Islas de Sotavento del norte. El sistema continúa produciendo
aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas esta mañana, pero no se han vuelto
mejor organizados. Las condiciones ambientales, incluyendo la
proximidad del aire seco, no favorecen el desarrollo de este sistema
mientras se mueve hacia el oeste-noroeste a aproximadamente 15 mph.
Independientemente del desarrollo, son posibles lluvias localmente
fuertes y vientos ráfagas a través de las Islas de Sotavento del
norte hoy
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...20 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...20 por ciento.

Mar adentro el Sureste de los Estados Unidos: Una área no tropical
de baja presión podría formarse a lo largo de un límite frontal a
unos pocos cientos de millas de la costa sureste de los Estados
Unidos este fin de semana. A partir de entonces, es posible algún
desarrollo subtropical o tropical durante la primera parte de la
próxima semana mientras el sistema se mueve generalmente hacia el
noroeste hacia la costa.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...cerca del 0 por
ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...30 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Kelly

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...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GORDON...
11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 13
Location: 19.4°N 38.6°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

Where 94L is moving through upper level winds seem to be favorable for development with decreasing upper level winds.  The only thing hindering this system at this time is a bit of dry air in the area and the proximity to the northern Leeward Islands.  None of the models are hinting development so I will just watch for now.

I will be keeping an eye on the northwest Caribbean as the ensemble show possible development by the last week of September possibly tracking north into the Gulf and may be even Florida.

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK SEPT 12, 2024..

 

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 12 Location: 17.8°N 34.6°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 1007 mb Max sustained: 35 mph

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121152
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Francine, located inland over south-central Mississippi, 
and on Tropical Depression Seven, located over the eastern Atlantic 
Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): 
A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of 
the Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm 
activity. Development of this system is not expected while it moves 
westward at around 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have become a bit more concentrated in 
association with a small area of low pressure located a few hundred 
miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, the proximity of dry 
air near the system is expected to limit additional development 
over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected 
to become even less conducive over the weekend while the system 
moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along 
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern 
U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development 
is possible during the early part of next week while the system 
drifts to the north or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

NORTHERN LEEWARD PURTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. THERE AFTER MAYBE THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA MIGHT HAVE TO MONITOR AS WELL IF THIS SYSTEM STAYS WEAK AND CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK.

..HURRICANE FRANCINE UPDATE SEPT 11, 2024..

 

...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...

10:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 Location: 28.0°N 92.7°W Moving: NE at 13 mph Min pressure: 976 mb Max sustained: 90 mph

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Francine Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Francine has changed little in intensity during the
last several hours.  Flight-level winds from the aircraft 
and a northwest eyewall dropsonde suggest that the maximum 
sustained surface winds are near 80 kt, and the central pressure is 
near 976 mb.  The aircraft have been reporting a large elliptical 
eye open to the south, which matches the depiction of the eye in 
WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Lake Charles.  Satellite imagery 
does show that the cloud pattern is becoming elongated from 
northeast to southwest due to the increasing effects of 
southwesterly shear.

The initial motion is now 040/10 kt. A slightly faster northeastward 
motion is forecast this afternoon and tonight as the hurricane 
becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas. This 
will bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast, with 
landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this 
afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the 
north will bring the center of Francine across southeastern 
Louisiana and southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. 
After that, a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is 
expected until the cyclone dissipates. There is little change to 
either the track guidance or the track forecast from the previous 
advisory.

Due to the increasing shear and the possibility that drier air will 
wrap around the south side of the center, little change in strength 
is expected before landfall.  However, Francine will continue to 
pose a significant risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging 
winds to locations in the warning areas. Once inland, Francine is 
expected to quickly weaken while also losing tropical 
characteristics. Transition to an extratropical cyclone is expected 
to be complete by Friday morning.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today for the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is
in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow 
advice given by local officials.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana later today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location before the 
onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 28.0N  92.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 29.5N  91.5W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST
 24H  12/1200Z 31.8N  90.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  13/0000Z 34.1N  90.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  13/1200Z 35.2N  90.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  14/0000Z 35.7N  90.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven