..TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 IS NOW TROPICAL STORM MILTON.. ..STAY TUNED FLORIDA WEST COAST AND BE HURRICANE READY..

 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...

12:25 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 Location: 22.3°N 95.3°W Moving: NNE at 3 mph Min pressure: 1006 mb Max sustained: 40 mph

THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST SO INTEREST ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR AND ALWAY BE STORM READY!

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA STATING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF MILTON WILL ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  STAY TUNED TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR UPDATES.

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE OCT 5, 2024..

 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 050547
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on 
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic 
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low 
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is broad and 
ill defined, but it is producing winds just below gale force.  
Development of this system is expected, and a tropical or 
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or 
early next week while moving eastward or northeastward across the 
Gulf of Mexico.  Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the 
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas 
should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of tropical 
or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over 
portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of 
Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE OCT 4, 2024..

 

Well, finally, we are seeing more consistency with the forecast models. It is looking like a sub-tropical to even tropical cyclone moving over Florida by the middle of next week. Some models hint at a depression to a tropical storm, but you can't rule out a Cat-1 hurricane, if conditions are favorable. So we stay alert and monitor NHC updates, and I will post here on the blog, Facebook, and on X (twitter) over the weekend.

A broad area of low pressure will develop over the central Gulf as a frontal boundary drops south over the state of Florida. This will be a slow-moving front and will become nearly stationary, preventing any northward track of any system that develops in the Gulf. This stationary will induce an eastward track toward Florida, enhancing rains and storms across the northern Yucatan and Florida beginning Tuesday and Wednesday. This low could bring strong gusty winds over Florida as well, depending on the intensity and where this low tracks over.

RTW

..TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 3, 2024..

 000

ABNT20 KNHC 031734
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on 
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic 
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of 
Mexico are associated with a surface trough.  A broad area of low 
pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend 
or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical 
development could be limited by the system's potential interaction 
with a frontal boundary.  Regardless of development, locally heavy 
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days 
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend 
into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven