...BONE CHILLING COLD FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND...

 

THE ARCTIC COLD AIR WILL INVADE MOST OF THE COUNTRY THIS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPS COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

FOR SOUTH FLORIDA MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD WE ARE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 40 TEMPS, COMBINE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IT WILL FEEL COLDER.

TRAVEL DISRUPTION IS ALSO LIKELY SO CHECK WITH AIRPORTS FOR ANY CANCELATIONS OR DELAYS.

BLIZZARD CONDITION FOR SURROUNDING STATES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS AS WELL.

RTW

EURO AIR TEMPS MODEL

CMC  AIR TEMP MODEL

GFS AIR TEMP MODEL

EURO NATIONAL AIR TEMP MODEL

CMC NATIONAL AIR TEMP MODEL

GFS NATIONAL AIR TEMP MODEL

2M AGL WIND CHILL NATIONAL MODEL

PRESSURE 10M AGL WIND MODEL

...A LOOK AT THE UPCOMING ARCTIC STORM...A LOOK AT THE FORECAST MAPS...A LOOK AT THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...

 

GFS A BIT COLDER 39 DEGREES ON CHRISTMAS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EURO TRENDNG IN THE 40s.  THE CMC ALSO TRENDING IN THE 40s. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE GREAT LAKES AREA.  

• DANAGEROUS TEMPS WILL SPREAD OVER THE U.S. SO TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY AND MAKE SURE TO BRING IN YOU PETS.

• TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS SO IF YOUR TRAVELING BY VEHICLE AND YOU CAN LEAVE EARLY DO SO.  HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES NEED TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING OVER BRIDGE AND WIDE OPEN AREAS AS WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TOPPLE A TRUCK.

• KEEP SPACE HEATERS AWAY FROM CURTAINS AND BLANKETS TO PREVENT THEM CATCHING ON FIRE.  

STAY SAFE AND ENJOY HAVE A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS!

RTW

GFS AIR TEMPERATURE FOR DEC 25 12Z

GFS AIR TEMP CONUS MAP 12Z

EURO AIR TEMP FOR DEC 25 12Z

EURO AIR TEMP CONUS MAP 12Z

CMC AIR TEMP FOR DEC 25 12Z

CMC AIR TEMP CONUS MAP 12Z

STORM PUBLIC INFORMATION WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

EXCESS RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAYS 1 AND 3 (ANIMATED)

FRONT CHARTS ANIMATED

DAY 1-3 NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS

...STILL MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT IS FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY...

 

WELL WE STILL KNOW THAT IT WILL BE FRIGID COLD FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY.  HOWEVER AS FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA THAT SEEMS TO BE FLIP FLOPPING OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EURO MODEL ON CHRISTMAS MORNING SHOWING 40s TO 50s.  

LAST WEEK THE EURO WAS SHOWING 30s AND NOW THE CMC IS STILL SHOWING UPPER 30S FOR THE BOWARD COUNTY AREA.  

REGARDLESS OF THE TEMPS, THERE WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS THAT WILL MAKE THE TEMPS FEEL COLDER THAN THEY ARE SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.  MOST DEFINITELY IT WILL BE THE COLD CHRISTMAS SO THOSE OF YOU THAT LIKE COLD WEATHER IN ENJOY!

STAY TUNED DURING THIS WEEK FOR MORE UPDATES.

RTW

GFS AIR TEMP MODEL

EURO AIR TEMP MODEL

CMC AIR TEMP MODEL

8 DAY FRONT CHARTS (ANIMATED)

3 DAY NATIONAL FORECAST CHARTS (ANIMATED) 

...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL TRACK SOUTH AND EAST THIS COMING WEEK BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND BITTER COLD TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY...

 

A POTENT ARCTIC TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO UNLEASH BITTER COLD AIR FOR MOST OF THE U.S. BY FRIDAY OF THIS COMING WEEK.  BITTER COLD TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MINUS IN THE NORTH AND TWENTIES AND 30S FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY. 

POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY.  A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.  EXPECT POWER DISRUPTION AS THESE WINDS TRACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY.  TRAVEL WILL ALSO BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR MANY.  IF YOU CAN LEAVE EARLIER THE BETTER, SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY. 

HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM BUT THOSE EXPECTING A WHITE CHRISTMAS, THE SNOW WILL START EARLY AND MOVE UP INTO CANADA BEFORE CHRISTMAS DAY.  HOWEVER, THAT COULD CHANGE SINCE THESE MODELS ARE NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE SO, STAY TUNE TO YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS WINTER STORM.  

REMEMBER THESE ARE FORECAST MODELS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE, SO CHECK BACK DAILY. 

RTW

GFS SNOW MODEL

CMC SNOW MODEL

ICON SNOW MODEL

GFS TEMP MODEL CHRISTMAS MORNING

EURO TEMP MODEL CHRISTMAS MORNING

CMC TEMP MODEL CHRISTMAS MORNING

WIND MODELS SHOW HAULING WINDS STARTING MID WEEK TO FRIDAY

WIND CHILL TEMPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CHRISTMAS EVE!

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY THURSDAY 15, 2022...

TODAYS SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK MARGINAL AND A SLIGHT RISK!

FOR THE LATEST ON SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK VISIT:

STORM PREDICITION CENTER

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK (SLIGHT RISK) AREAS

Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Savannah, GA...

DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK MARGINAL RISK AREA:

Jacksonville, FL...Fayetteville, NC...Wilmington, NC...Greenville, NC...Jacksonville, NC...

DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY 

A 5% RISK FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Gainesville, FL...Clearwater, FL...

A 2% RISK FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Jacksonville, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Palm Bay, FL...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

A 15% RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Savannah, GA...

A 5% RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Jacksonville, FL...Fayetteville, NC...Wilmington, NC...Greenville, NC...Jacksonville, NC...

IMPORTANT!

...Some increase in the tornado threat is expected through
   late morning as stronger storms move onshore...

Mesoscale Discussion 2045

Mesoscale Discussion 2045
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0915 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of the FL Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 591...

   Valid 151515Z - 151645Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 591 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some increase in the tornado threat is expected through
   late morning as stronger storms move onshore.

   DISCUSSION...At 1515 UTC, a thunderstorm cluster is beginning to
   move onshore near and north of the Tampa Bay vicinity. Embedded
   supercells within this cluster have occasionally shown moderate
   low/midlevel rotation over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Rich
   low-level moisture, MLCAPE gradually increasing into the 500-1000
   J/kg range, and 0-1 km SRH around 300 m2/s2 (per KTBW VWP) will
   support a tornado threat with any embedded supercells as this
   cluster of convection moves onshore through late morning. Strong
   low-level flow will also support the potential for locally
   strong/damaging gusts with the more intense cells and bowing line
   segments. 

   Maintenance of favorable wind profiles and gradual
   heating/moistening will support an expansion of the tornado and
   damaging-wind threat across the FL Peninsula with time, though
   widespread cloudiness and generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates
   may tend to temper the threat to some extent as convection spreads
   eastward.

   ..Dean.. 12/15/2022

URGENT BROADCAST SPC 

TORNADO WATCH 591

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 591
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   800 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central and north-central Florida
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 800 AM until
     400 PM EST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds and a tornado or two should
   increase through the remainder of the morning and linger through at
   least midafternoon, with a band of thunderstorms moving eastward
   from the Gulf across the watch area.  Isolated supercells ahead of
   the main convective band also may pose a tornado hazard, especially
   over western areas.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   either side of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Saint
   Petersburg FL to 30 miles north northeast of Melbourne FL. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 25030.

   ...Edwards

...DAYS 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...

 

TODAY THERE IS A MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK FOR STORMS AS THIS WINTER STORM TRACKS EAST.  TOMORROW THE SEVERE WEATHER BECOMES MORE SERIOUS AS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  

• STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICTION CENTER UPDATES AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

• MAKE SURE YOU HAVE FRESH BACKUP BATTERIES IN YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO, AND THAT IT IS PROGRAMED FOR YOUR SPECIFIC AREA.

• ALSO MAKE SURE YOUR CELL PHONE, AND PORTATBLE CHARGERS ARE FULLY CHARGED AND READY IF YOU LOOSE POWER.

• MAKE SURE YOU HAVE EXTRA BATTERIES FOR YOUR FLASHLIGHTS.

• HAVE BIKE HELMETS READY TO COVER YOUR HEAD IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.  BE STORM READY!

RTW

DAYS 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK

A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

 ...Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...

A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS: 

Fort Worth, TX...Wichita, KS...Abilene, TX...Denton, TX...Lewisville, TX...

DAY 1 TORNADO OUTLOOK

 A 5% TORNADO RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Duncan, OK...

A 2% TORNADO RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...

DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK

A 15% DAMAGING WIND RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK

A 5% DAMAGING WIND RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

Fort Worth, TX...Wichita, KS...Abilene, TX...Denton, TX...Lewisville, TX...

DAY 1 HAIL OUTLOOK

A 5% HAIL RISK FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA:

Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...North Platte, NE...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (ANIMATED)

DAYS 1-3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ANIMATED)