Thursday, August 24, 2017
HARVEY UPDATE 0500 PM EDT 08/24/17
000 WTNT34 KNHC 242045 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 ...HARVEY HEADED TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 93.9W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended northeast of Matagorda to Sargent Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Sargent to High Island Texas * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 93.9 West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected this evening, and Harvey's forward speed is forecast to slow down during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data released by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over through central and southwest Louisiana, with accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause devastating and life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Wednesday, August 23, 2017
SOUTH FLORIDA FLOOD POTENTIAL
WPLG Local 10 NewsVerified account @WPLGLocal10
1h1 hour ago
Off & on rain will "add up" over the next several days. An additional 2-5" could accumulate through Sunday. #SoFlo
HARVEY A FLOOD THREAT FOR TEXAS 0500 PM EDT AUG 23, 2017
000 WTNT34 KNHC 232036 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 ...HARVEY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS FOR THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 92.6W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas * North of San Luis Pass to High Island A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A track toward the northwest or north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey could become a hurricane on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning. Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could cause life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
EYES ON THE TROPICS 0500 PM EDT AUG 23, 2017
Sorry for the late updates home sick with a nasty cold been home in bed most of the day here is my latest update.
RTW: Review of the Tropics
1. INVEST 92L POSSIBLE FLOOD THREAT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNSTABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS AS IT DRIFTS NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...RTW
2. HARVEY IS BACK AND IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. HARVEY IS A FLOOD THREAT FOR TEXAS WITH STORM SURGE AND THE HEAVY RAINS. HARVEY'S FORECAST TRACK IS NOT LOOKING EASY AS SOME OF THE MODELS LOOP THIS SYSTEM AROUND AND BACK OUT TO THE GULF. BELOW I POSTED DAY1-3 RAINFALL PROBABILITIES LOOKING A 5 PLUS INCHES AT RAIN. LOUISIANA MAY SEE SOME FLOODING AS WELL BUT THAT WILL DEPENDS ON HARVEY'S FUTURE TRACK. HARVEY LOOPING FORECAST MAY BE DUE TO A WEAK STEERING CURRENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE. STAY TUNED TO NHC FOR UPDATES AND LOCAL MEDIA...RTW.
VISIT MY SITE: http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
2. HARVEY IS BACK AND IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. HARVEY IS A FLOOD THREAT FOR TEXAS WITH STORM SURGE AND THE HEAVY RAINS. HARVEY'S FORECAST TRACK IS NOT LOOKING EASY AS SOME OF THE MODELS LOOP THIS SYSTEM AROUND AND BACK OUT TO THE GULF. BELOW I POSTED DAY1-3 RAINFALL PROBABILITIES LOOKING A 5 PLUS INCHES AT RAIN. LOUISIANA MAY SEE SOME FLOODING AS WELL BUT THAT WILL DEPENDS ON HARVEY'S FUTURE TRACK. HARVEY LOOPING FORECAST MAY BE DUE TO A WEAK STEERING CURRENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE. STAY TUNED TO NHC FOR UPDATES AND LOCAL MEDIA...RTW.
VISIT MY SITE: http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Tuesday, August 22, 2017
INVEST 92L FIRING UP STORM OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA 1111 PM EDT AUG 22, 2017
Latest satellite imagery show a ball of convection off the southwest coast of Florida. Invest 92L is almost off the coast or is already off the coast and this could be the beginning of some organization with this system. Some of the previous model run showed this system organizing slightly off the southwest coast then track northeast across Florida a nd strengthening to a tropical cyclone east of GA and the Carolinas. Even if it doesn't organize it would have the potential for heavy over Southern Florida during the next few days. Flood potential for the state so stay tuned to local media and the National Weather Service in Miami....RTW
MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST 0419 PM EDT AUG 22, 2017
Tonight Aug 22, 2017
Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around
81°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent.
Wednesday Aug 23
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. Southeast wind 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent.
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows
around 81°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent.
Thursday Aug 24
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. South southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows
around 81°F. South wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70
percent.
Friday Aug 25
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs
around 88°F. Southwest wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows
around 81°F. West southwest wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Saturday Aug 26
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs
around 88°F. West southwest wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 17 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent.
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows
around 81°F. West wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Sunday Aug 27
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs
around 88°F. West wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows
around 81°F. West northwest wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent.
Monday Aug 28
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the Day: Highs
around 88°F. West northwest wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent.
Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the Night:
Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. North northeast wind to 10 MPH.
Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI, FLORIDA
EYES ON THE TROPICS 0301 PM EDT AUG 22, 2017
1. INVEST92L...Models continue to suggest weak development off the southeast coast of Florida and a track toward the northwest then northward or northeast. Some models tracks this system across Southern Florida and the Gulf then back across Florida and a track toward the northeast, and possibly strengthen into a tropical cyclone east of the eastern seaboard. We will just have to wait and see if this system does mature into a tropical entity. Showers and storms are accumulating this afternoon over the Bahamas and are tracking westward. As this system attempts to get its act together it will more than likely produce a wet environment over Southern Florida. So the next few days are looking very wet. You can't rule out localized flooding as this system tracks slowly northwest...RTW
2. INVEST 91L HARVEY continues to organize and now has a high chance for development 90% within 48 hrs. and a 100% within 5-days. Harvey is a threat for Texas and possibly Louisiana. models are all over the place but Texas seems to be Harvey's prime target for now...RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
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