HURRICANE IRMA 0500 PM EDT FORECAST INFO

...IRMA MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 022045 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  14...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

Corrected to add west in motion paragraph

...IRMA MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 44.6W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Irma.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 44.6 West. Irma is moving a
little south of due west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Irma is currently a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 70 miles
(110 km). However, the hurricane is expected to grow in size during
the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven 

 Note red line is latest NHC forecast track. The others are previous from the morning.  You can see the NHC has had to adjust their track further to the south or left of previous track.  This is due to the high pressure ridge to Irma's north curving southwestward and this forces the storm to track West of due South.  That will have to watched closely, because this could change forecast for the Northern Leeward Islands and put then in harms way.  This also changes the tracks further west.  Keep monitoring closely and Leeward Island be ready for a hurricane if it does not shift northward...RTW

RTW TROPICAL UPDATE 0328 PM EDT SEPT 2 2017

I'm not saying this will be there when Irma gets east of the Bahamas but the low pressures and weak front moving of the coast may leave a weakness between the east coast and the Bermuda High.  Of course this would mean a less chance of a South Florida landfall and an increased chance for our friends to our north.  Please note this is not a forecast only my observation I can be wrong, so please keep monitoring NHC forecast closely...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

IRMA 12Z MODEL RUN AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MODELS GFS AND CMC MODEL RUN FROM TROPICALTIBITS

I  continue to see that northward trend in the models it has been persistent and can't be ignored for those who live along the East coast.

HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 1100 AM EDT SEPT 2, 2017

...IRMA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AS A SMALL HURRICANE...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 021454
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

...IRMA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AS A SMALL HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 43.3W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 43.3 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a turn toward the west-southwest
at a slightly slower rate of speed during the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Irma is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea 

I added this morning 05AM track along side this morning 11AM NHC forecast track red line.  Just a tad to the left of previous  05AM.  If this track were to stay as is, it would make landfall anywhere from Central Florida to Florida/ GA border.  These tracks will continue to change and we just need to keep watching.  The Islands need to be ready in case high pressure builds over the cyclone and forces Irma into the Caribbean...RTW

06z MODEL GUIDANCE AND INTENSITY MODEL 0258 AM EDT SEPT 2 2017

IRMA'S FUTURE WIND SWATH AS OF 11 PM EDT SEPT 1, 2017

THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT WITH ARE RECENT NHC FORECAST TRACK

I ran all previous tracks that the National Hurricane Center issued since they initiated the first advisory on Irma and noticed that the present forecast in red has shift further to the right.  Doesn't say much at this time, it is just an observation...RTW

HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 11 PM EDT SEPT 1, 2017

...IRMA FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY BUT STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 020242
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

...IRMA FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY BUT STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 40.5W
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 40.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward the west-southwest
is expected on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky 

00z MODEL RUN 0927 PM EDT SEPT 1, 2017

Not much change in this model run.  Air Force Recon have flight scheduled for this weekend.  May be the models will cluster together a bit tighter and give us a better idea of where this dangerous storm is headed...RTW

 

IRMA STRONGER AS IT TRACK MORE WEST 0507 PM EDT SEPT 1, 2017

...IRMA TURNS WESTWARD WITH 120-MPH WINDS...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 012049
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

...IRMA TURNS WESTWARD WITH 120-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 39.1W
ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 39.1 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the west-southwest
is expected tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake 

18z MODEL RUN FORECAST GUIDANCE AND INTENSITY MODEL 0351 PM EDT SEPT 1, 2017

Guidance models have shifted a tad toward the left of previous model run.  This flip flopping back and forth will happen many times more before we can stat getting tighter and more persistent run.  Keep monitoring NHC updates and be ready in case this storm heads your way.  Still to far and very uncertain to where it will go....RTW

Intensity model still holding this storm as a cat 4 and I we can't rule out a cat 5...RTW

FOOD FOR THOUGHT!

Bryan Norcross‏ @TWCBryan 16h16 hours ago

All of the hurricanes within 75 mi of the NHC 5-day position. The purple ones are Cat 4s: Donna, 1947 Ft. Lauderdale/NOLA, & 1928 Okeechobee

IRMA 11 AM EDY SEPT 1, 2017 PUBLIC ADVISORY AND FROECAST MAPS

...IRMA FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR DAYS...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 011449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

...IRMA FORECAST TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 37.8W
ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 37.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the west is
expected by tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during
the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

12z MODEL RUN SEEMS TO BE TRENDING NORTHWARD WHILE NHC FORECAST TRACK LEFT OF THE OTHER MODELS

I not going to sit here and speculate where IRMA will end up because its still to far out at sea and there are to many uncertainties.  We need to wait until Monday to get a better idea of where this storm may head.  As it is now high pressure continues to steer this system west-northwest.

Relax and just think over what you need in your kits, and go over your prep plan with the family in the event a hurricane strikes your area...RTW

IRMA PUBLIC ADVISORY AND FORECAST MAPS 1051 PM EDT AUG 31, 2017

...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010239
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IRMA ENDS FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 35.6W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 35.6 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward the west
is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest
on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are
possible during the next several days, but Irma is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net