EYES ON THE TROPICS INVEST 92L AND INVEST 91L HARVEY UPDATE 1216 PM EDT AUG 21, 2017

RTW: Review of the Tropics

1. Not much change with this tropical wave.  Atmospheric not favorable for tropical cyclone formation.

2. INVEST 92L Models still insisting on weak depression or tropical storm and even a cat. 1 hurricane at some point with this disorganized system.  If it does develop into a hurricane it would be after it tracks over Florida and then back out over the Atlantic waters east of GA. 

The EURO model also suggest a track toward Florida and then out over the Atlantic as it tracks back toward the northeast but as a weaker system.  

06z Intensity model calls for a tropical storm or even a Cat.1 hurricane to form from this weather system.  Not saying this will be a significant event but we always need to be ready just in case..RTW

3.INVEST 91L HARVEY remnants is looking better every hour.  We may see a tropical storm develop as it tracks toward the Yucatan and anyone from Mexico to Texas should closely monitor this storm system...RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 Harvey's remnants looking better every hour.

...HARVEY DEGENERATES TO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...THIS IS THE LAST UPDATE...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 200232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Harvey Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 71.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM N OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of the
remnants of Harvey.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Harvey were located near
latitude 14.3 North, longitude 71.8 West.  The tropical wave
associated with Harvey's remnants is moving quickly toward the west
near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion will continue for the
next day or two.  The remnants are expected to move westward across
the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday and across the western Caribbean
Sea toward Central America on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system unless regeneration occurs or if tropical
cyclone watches or warnings are required for land areas.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg

 http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TRACKING THE TROPICS 0946 PM EDT AUG 19, 2017

000
ABNT20 KNHC 192319
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Harvey, located over the central
Caribbean Sea.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized near a trough of low
pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the northern
Leeward Islands.  Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for development of this system during the next couple of
days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  Conditions
could become slightly more conducive for development once the system
is near the northern Bahamas or Florida around the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about a thousand miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing a large area of cloudiness but limited
showers and thunderstorms.  The wave is currently embedded in a
dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too
strong to support development in a couple of days.  Therefore,
tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 192033
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 70.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF CURACAO
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey.  Watches may be
required for portions of these areas tonight.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey
was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 70.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Sunday.  A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the
central and western Caribbean Sea through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible during the next couple of days,
and Harvey could regain tropical storm status Sunday or Sunday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

TRACKING THE TROPICS 0433 PM EDT AUG 19, 2017

RTW: Review of the Tropics

1. Not much change with this tropical wave.  This system is lacking convection (thunderstorms) and is also struggling to develop.  Atmospheric conditions are slowly becoming some what favorable for development during next week.

2. INVEST 92L is still moving through dry air and some westerly shear.  There is another upper low to the northwest of 92L that could also interfere with development.  Wind shear ahead of 92L a this time is marginal, and dry air is present.  

18z Intensity model calls for a tropical storm or even a Cat.1 hurricane to form from this weather system.  

As for the guidance models I have been seeing a trend toward the north and northeast.  But a few still take this system toward the west-northwest and Florida.  I am not real excited with this system, but I will continue to monitor it...RTW

3. For latest updates on HARVEY click here>> The National Hurricane Center...RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

HARVEY AND INVEST 92L UPDATE 1243 PM EDT AUG 19, 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 191447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017

...HARVEY STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT LESS ORGANIZED THAN
YESTERDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 68.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern
Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey.  Watches may be
required for portions of these areas later today.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 68.1 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through Sunday.  A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey will move across the central and western
Caribbean Sea over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Harvey is currently poorly organized,
and only slow strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the northwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
data and data from NOAA buoy 42059 is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Locally heavy rain could occur today over Aruba, Bonaire,
and Curacao.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

RTW: Review of the Tropics

1. Not much change with this tropical wave.  This system is lacking convection (thunderstorms) and is also struggling to develop.

2. INVEST 92L is still moving through dry air and some westerly shear.  There is another upper low to the northwest of 92L that could also interfere with development.  Wind shear ahead of 92L a this time is marginal, and dry air is present.  Intensity model call for a tropical storm to form from this system.  As for the guidance models I have been seeing a trend toward the north and northeast.  But a few still take this system toward the west-northwest and Florida.  I am not real excited with this system, but I will continue to monitor it...RTW

3. For latest updates on HARVEY click here>> The National Hurricane Center...RTW

HARVEY AND INVEST 92L UPDATE 1135 PM EDT AUG 18, 2017

RTW: Review of the Tropics

1. Not much change with this tropical wave.  Forecast call for some what favorable conditions for may be some development next week.

2. INVEST 92L is having a difficult time developing with 91L has been under the influence dry air and upper level shear north of this system.  Conditions ahead of 92L are not looking any better so it will continue having a hard time developing.  In fact most of the models like the GFS and the EURO model suggest a tropical wave as it approaches the Bahamas.  However, disturbance that come from that direction will be monitored closely.

3. For latest updates on HARVEY click here>> The National Hurricane Center...RTW
 http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 190233
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...HARVEY CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 64.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central America and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 64.1 West.  Harvey is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  An even faster
motion toward the west is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg 

STORM DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY 0422 PM EDT AUG 18, 2017

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located just west of the Windward Islands.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 600 miles east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization.  However,
upper-level winds are becoming less favorable, and the chances for
a tropical cyclone to form are diminishing.  The low is expected to
move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days,
and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A tropical wave is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more favorable for some
development early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven 

TROPICAL UPDATE 0305 PM EDT AUG 18, 2017

Review of Invest 92L via visible satellite shows that this system is encountering upper level shear from a mid to upper level low to the north of of 92L.  Also 92L is moving through dry air and this is also hindering rapid development.  High pressure steering currents are strong and pushing this system toward the west to west-northwest.  We must continue to monitor this one closely.

Forecast guidance models still track 92L toward the west-northwest around the periphery of the high pressure ridge and toward the Bahamas and Florida.  I am now seeing a turn toward the north with some of the models you can see it on this mornings 12z model run and now on the latest 18z model run.  Disregard the CLP5 that is a historical model.  I will keep monitoring that turn toward the north for a trend, but as you still see some say Florida. There are some short run that suggest weakening of this system.

As for the intensity models a few suggest a tropical storm to a cat 1 hurricane at some point then they weaken it to a depression or below that status.  I will keep a close watch on it.   I will post on Harvey later that storm will strengthen some as it enters the eastern Caribbean.

ABSENSE OF BLOGS! AUG 18, 2017

Wasn't feeling all that great over night stayed home from work feeling a bit better now. I just got up out of bed for those of you wondering why I have not posted any blog updates or website updates. I will try to get some of it done in a bit.  

NOTE SITE BUILDER IS DOWN I BEEN TRYING TO CONNECT TO UPDATE MY WEBSITE AND THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG WITH THEIR SERVERS.  I WILL KEEP TRYING EVERY SO OFTEN.  FOR NOW i WILL POST ALL MY UPDATES HERE AS USUAL.