Tuesday, August 22, 2017
INVEST 92L FIRING UP STORM OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA 1111 PM EDT AUG 22, 2017
MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST 0419 PM EDT AUG 22, 2017
Tonight Aug 22, 2017
Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows around
81°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent.
Wednesday Aug 23
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. Southeast wind 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent.
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows
around 81°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent.
Thursday Aug 24
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs
around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. South southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows
around 81°F. South wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70
percent.
Friday Aug 25
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs
around 88°F. Southwest wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows
around 81°F. West southwest wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Saturday Aug 26
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day: Highs
around 88°F. West southwest wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 17 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent.
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows
around 81°F. West wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Sunday Aug 27
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs
around 88°F. West wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Night: Lows
around 81°F. West northwest wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent.
Monday Aug 28
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the Day: Highs
around 88°F. West northwest wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent.
Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the Night:
Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. North northeast wind to 10 MPH.
Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI, FLORIDA
EYES ON THE TROPICS 0301 PM EDT AUG 22, 2017
TROPICAL UPDATE 1253 AM EDT AUG 22, 2017
000 ABNT20 KNHC 212329 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at this time. Although this system could still become better organized while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday, tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Only slow development of this system is anticipated during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas and then turns northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Monday, August 21, 2017
EYES ON THE TROPICS INVEST 92L AND INVEST 91L HARVEY UPDATE 1216 PM EDT AUG 21, 2017
RTW: Review of the Tropics
1. Not much change with this tropical wave. Atmospheric not favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
2. INVEST 92L Models still insisting on weak depression or tropical storm and even a cat. 1 hurricane at some point with this disorganized system. If it does develop into a hurricane it would be after it tracks over Florida and then back out over the Atlantic waters east of GA.
The EURO model also suggest a track toward Florida and then out over the Atlantic as it tracks back toward the northeast but as a weaker system.
06z Intensity model calls for a tropical storm or even a Cat.1 hurricane to form from this weather system. Not saying this will be a significant event but we always need to be ready just in case..RTW
3.INVEST 91L HARVEY remnants is looking better every hour. We may see a tropical storm develop as it tracks toward the Yucatan and anyone from Mexico to Texas should closely monitor this storm system...RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Harvey's remnants looking better every hour.
Saturday, August 19, 2017
...HARVEY DEGENERATES TO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE...THIS IS THE LAST UPDATE...
000 WTNT34 KNHC 200232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Harvey Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 ...HARVEY DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 71.8W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM N OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of the remnants of Harvey. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Harvey were located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 71.8 West. The tropical wave associated with Harvey's remnants is moving quickly toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this general motion will continue for the next day or two. The remnants are expected to move westward across the central Caribbean Sea on Sunday and across the western Caribbean Sea toward Central America on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system unless regeneration occurs or if tropical cyclone watches or warnings are required for land areas. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Berg
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TRACKING THE TROPICS 0946 PM EDT AUG 19, 2017
000 ABNT20 KNHC 192319 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Harvey, located over the central Caribbean Sea. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized near a trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Conditions could become slightly more conducive for development once the system is near the northern Bahamas or Florida around the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located about a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of cloudiness but limited showers and thunderstorms. The wave is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in a couple of days. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
000 WTNT34 KNHC 192033 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 ...HARVEY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 70.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF CURACAO ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and western Caribbean Sea, northern Nicaragua, northern Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Harvey. Watches may be required for portions of these areas tonight. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 70.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the central and western Caribbean Sea through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and Harvey could regain tropical storm status Sunday or Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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