HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 1100 PM EDT SEPT 3, 2017

...MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 040232
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

...MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 51.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
Irma.  Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be
required for portions of this area on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 51.0 West.  Irma is moving
toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A
west-southwestward to westward motion is expected through Monday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Irma is expected to
approach the northern Leeward Islands late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central
pressure of 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma will begin affecting the northern
Leeward Islands on Monday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 

00z MODEL RUN FOR HURRICANE IRMA 0900 PM EDT SEPT 3, 2017

HERE ARE THE LATEST MODEL STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 7 DAYS.  STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...RTW

 These are the Hurricane center models and note that the HWFI is further south and west.  This could be an indication that high pressure continues to build over Irma pushing the cyclone south a more westward.   Also note the OFCI hurricane center forecast tracking somewhat south of previous as well.
This persistence puts South Florida under the gun.  Consider checking your kits making sure every thing is in order.  The Coast of Florida from the Florida Keys northward to Jacksonville will more than likely be under some sort of watch and warning by next weekend.  BE HURRICANE READY!

BRYAN NORCROSS HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE SEPT 3, 2017

No good news this afternoon on HURRICANE IRMA. The track of the hurricane is as projected. It's heading a little south of due west, which will take it into a much more threatening position.
It appears that full hurricane preparations are going to be required in the northern Leeward Island, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the D.R. & Haiti, and the Bahamas.
It is increasingly likely that hurricane preparations will be required on at least the east coast of Florida. There is no way to know the level of impact Irma might have on Florida at this time. South Florida will likely be touched by the end of the cone tomorrow.

After this week, a track up the East Coast or even into the Gulf cannot be ruled out. If Irma tracks over the mountainous Caribbean islands, it may miss the first opportunity to turn north and be pushed farther west. The bottom line is, everybody along the hurricane coast from New Orleans to New England should review their plans.
This will be a large, powerful storm, based on everything we know. It will not have to make a direct hit to have a significant effect. This is going to require everybody's attention until we have more certainty on the future track.

IRMA INTERMIDIATE ADVISORY 0800 PM EDT SEPT 3, 2017

...IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE TUESDAY...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 032346 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 18A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
800 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

Corrected location

...IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
LATE TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 50.3W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
Irma.  Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be
required for portions of this area on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.4 North, longitude
50.3 West.  Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A
westward to west-southwestward motion with some reduction in forward
speed is expected through Monday night.  On the forecast track, the
center of Irma is expected to approach the northern Leeward Islands
late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
observations is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown 

HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 0500 PM EDT SEPT 3, 2017

...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO IRMA...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 032050
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO IRMA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 49.8W
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for
the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St.
Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and
U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of
Irma.  Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be
required for portions of this area on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 49.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A westward to west-southwestward
motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected through
Monday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Irma is
forecast to approach the northern Leeward Islands late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 I am keeping an eye on HWFI model because it performed well with Harvey and comparing it to the NHC OFCI model.  NHC model run still adjusting further south because of the dip southward the cyclone took.  This has prompted Hurricane watch for a portion of the Leeward Islands.

 18z model run

LABOR DAY THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Hail Point®‏ @HailPoint 4

Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #HailPoint

HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 11 PM EDT SEPT 2, 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA HEADING WESTWARD WITH 110 MPH WINDS...

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA HEADING WESTWARD WITH 110 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 46.2W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Irma.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 46.2 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a motion just south of due
west is expected for the next 48 h.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Irma is currently a small-size hurricane. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN

00z MODEL GUIDANC E AND INTENSITY MODEL RUN

BRYAN NORCROSS Saturday update on HURRICANE IRMA -

Bryan Norcross added 3 new photos.

2 hrs · 

Saturday update on HURRICANE IRMA - Irma continues on track. The weather pattern for the next few days is straightforward. High pressure to the north will push the hurricane slightly south into a part of the ocean from which a number of great hurricanes have come. Hurricanes that passed within 75 miles of the NHC's 5-day forecast position include the 1926 Great Miami, 1947 Ft. Lauderdale/New Orleans, 1949 West Palm Beach, Donna, Betsy, Hugo, Frances, and Ike. And, of course, many storms went out to sea. The only lesson here is that the entire East Coast needs to be aware and ready to prepare.

The weather pattern that is expected to steer Irma when the storm is within striking distance of the East Coast is notoriously very difficult to forecast. This accounts for the constant changes in the long-range models. While a big dip in the jet stream is anticipated over the East, which will deflect Irma north, the future evolution of that dip is unknown. High pressure building across the Canada over the top of the dip makes the future steering very uncertain. Literally, anything is possible.

Irma is expected to come close enough to the northern Leeward Island, Virgin Island, and Puerto Rico that everyone there should have their hurricane plans in order. There will likely be threatening weather as Irma approaches on Tuesday into Wednesday. It is uncertain how close the core of the hurricane will come, but Watches could be issued as soon as tomorrow.

The message is similar for the Bahamas. Residents should be reviewing their hurricane plans.

There is NO credible forecast that can tell us who will be threatened on the U.S. East Coast, if anybody. There are too many variables in play. For now, enjoy the weekend, and be sure you're ready to take action if necessary. We wouldn't expect a U.S. hurricane threat until the end of next week.

 

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST MY OBSERVATION

This is why I don't want the Northern Leeward, Saba ST. Maarten, the British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to drop their guard. They are still in the cone of error and in danger of a direct hit. Here is one model that brings the cyclone dangerously close the the Leeward and Puerto Rico.

Also the last image shows a fairly strong northward flow in the weakness between a trough along the east coast and the Bermuda high to east. This could be the channel for Irma to track through but it still to close to the East coast and everything can change into next week. So everyone from the Florida Straits north to New York should closely monitor the progress of Irma...RTW

PUBLIC INFOMATION ON IRMA FROM N.W.S. IN MIAMI, FLORIDA

NWS Miami‏Verified account @NWSMiami 30m30 minutes ago

5pm 9/2 It's too early to know if S FL will be impacted next weekend. Review your hurricane plans this weekend just in case #flwx #Irma

LATEST BRYAN NORCROSS UPDATE

Bryan Norcross‏ @TWCBryan 14

Bryan Norcross Retweeted Bryan Norcross

The only message from this fact, however, is that the entire East Coast needs to be aware of developments with Irma. And have preps ready.

Check the hurrs that have passed within 75 mi of the NHC 5-day point: 1926 Miami, 1947 FTL/NOLA, 1949 WPB, Donna, Betsy, Hugo, Frances, Ike.

HURRICANE IRMA 0500 PM EDT FORECAST INFO

...IRMA MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 022045 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  14...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017

Corrected to add west in motion paragraph

...IRMA MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 44.6W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Irma.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 44.6 West. Irma is moving a
little south of due west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Irma is currently a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 70 miles
(110 km). However, the hurricane is expected to grow in size during
the next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven 

 Note red line is latest NHC forecast track. The others are previous from the morning.  You can see the NHC has had to adjust their track further to the south or left of previous track.  This is due to the high pressure ridge to Irma's north curving southwestward and this forces the storm to track West of due South.  That will have to watched closely, because this could change forecast for the Northern Leeward Islands and put then in harms way.  This also changes the tracks further west.  Keep monitoring closely and Leeward Island be ready for a hurricane if it does not shift northward...RTW