Tuesday, September 5, 2017

00z MODEL RUN 0900 PM EDT SEPT 5, 2017

Latest 00z model run
Combo of New and old HWFI, HWRF, HMON.  They been shifting north.  They were trending west northwest for the longest now to the north.  They have been right on so far and they can't be ignored. RTW


HURRICANE IRMA 0500 PM EDT UPDATE SEPT 5, 2017


...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA NEARING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SOON... 
 
000
WTNT21 KNHC 052051
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
2100 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
WITH HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND
NEVIS
* SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... AND SINT MAARTEN
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
HAITI

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE
MOLE ST. NICHOLAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... AS
WELL AS CUBA... THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... AND FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  59.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  926 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 240SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  59.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  59.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.6N  61.8W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.5N  64.6W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.5N  67.3W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.4N  70.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N  75.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.7N  79.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.4N  81.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N  59.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




18z MODEL RUN AND 12Z MODEL RUN FOR COMPARING

Well we are see more model on the right of the previous track.  However, still not confident with those tracks.  NHC track holding about the same.
18z Model Run
12z Model run

HURRICANE CENTER DISCUSION FROM 11 AM EDT

000
WTNT41 KNHC 051446
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and
visible satellite images.  Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible
satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several
mesovortices rotating within with eye.  The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily.  A peak
SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.

Irma is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear, a moist
mid-level atmosphere, and high upper-ocean heat content as it moves
west-northwestward during the next several days. These conditions
should allow the hurricane to remain very intense throughout much
of the forecast period, however, fluctuations in intensity are
likely to occur as eyewall replacement cycles take place.  The NHC
intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance and assumes
little overall interaction of Irma with the islands of the Greater
Antilles.

Irma continues to move westward at about 12 kt, and a strong
subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic should steer
Irma generally westward today. The ridge is expected to remain in
place over the western Atlantic during the next several days and
Irma is forecast to move west-northwestward throughout the most of
remainder of the forecast period.  Around day 5, a shortwave trough
dropping southward over the central United States is expected to
begin eroding the western portion of the ridge, allowing a Irma to
gain some latitude.  The new NHC track forecast is close to the
HFIP corrected consensus model and is very similar to the previous
forecast.

Since Irma is a large hurricane, users are reminded to not focus on
the exact forecast track since tropical-storm and hurricane-force
winds and life-threatening storm surge extend far from the center.
Residents in the Leeward Islands should complete their preparations
very soon as the weather will begin to deteriorate over the
easternmost Leeward Islands later this afternoon.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northeastern Leeward Islands beginning later today
and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning tomorrow.
Preparations should be rushed to completion before the arrival of
tropical-storm force winds later today in the Leeward Islands and
tomorrow morning in Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

2. Hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos,
and Irma could bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to
those areas on Thursday and Friday.

3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.

4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma later this week and this
weekend is increasing in the Florida Keys and portions of the
Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing
and magnitude of the impacts. Elsewhere, it is too early to
determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental
United States. Everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 16.8N  58.4W  155 KT 180 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 17.2N  60.3W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 18.1N  63.0W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 19.1N  65.9W  145 KT 165 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 20.1N  68.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 21.4N  74.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 22.7N  78.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 24.4N  81.2W  125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown 
 
 

HURRICANE IRMA 11AM EDT ADVISORY SEPT 5, 2017


...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 051445
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING
TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including the
Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the
Ragged Islands.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the north coast of Haiti from
the border of the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St.
Nicholas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from south of Le
Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. In this case, for some of easternmost islands, the
hurricane conditions are expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as
well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida
should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma
is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to
remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple
of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 931 mb (27.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme
northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and
to the north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to
reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the Leeward Islands by tonight, with tropical storm
conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area where hurricane
conditions are also possible. Hurricane conditions are expected
to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning tonight.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos,
and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across
the northern Leeward Islands.  Irma is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 4 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches across northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, and amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southwest Puerto
Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix.  This rainfall
may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
during the next several days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
 



 

Monday, September 4, 2017

BRTYAN NORCROSS EVENING IRMA UPDATE SEPT 4, 2017

Bryan Norcross added 3 new photos.
6 hrs ·
Fierce Cat 4 HURRICANE IRMA is, unfortunately, on track. The center of the storm is forecast to be south of the Keys on Saturday, and then begin a move to the north. It is impossible to know how strong the storm will be - it will depend on how it interacts with the Cuban landmass plus other factors. Therefore it is impossible to say exactly what path the core of the storm - the strongest winds - will take.
Hurricane Irma will be larger than the Peninsula of Florida, so on any of the most likely tracks, the entire width of the state will feel the storm. The parts near where the center goes will get the worst, however, and we won't know where that is until we get much closer to the event.
On the current schedule, winds will start picking up in South Florida Friday afternoon and evening, later on the southwest coast and in the Lower Keys. This means that preps will have to be completed Friday morning, and to be safe, think about being ready by Thursday night on the southeast coast.
People in Southeast Florida - Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach - should imagine Hurricane Wilma at a MINIMUM. Many things can change between now and Saturday, but the odds at this point favor at least that type of storm. Some areas may well get a drastically stronger storm than Wilma was when it hit Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and WPB, but we don't know where that might be. It's just too early.
There is the possibility of an extreme storm in the Keys an in some part of the Peninsula.
We have plenty of time to prepare. If the storm forecast continues to show a direct impact in Florida, evacuations will be ordered and there will be a frenzy in the stores. Take care of things now that everybody has to do - get gas, get supplies, get prescriptions, and get cash. You'll have time for other physical preps this week.
My previous post contains a checklist of the minimum supplies you need. Attached is a list from Brevard County Emergency Management with ADDITIONAL recommended supplies. (Though I recommend 7 days of food and water.)
Now is a good time to get in touch with your friends and neighbors to be sure everybody is paying attention and doing the right thing. Also, think about elderly and electricity-dependent people you know. They may need help this week if the storm tracks as it looks most likely.
More as we know more... but don't wait.

HURRICANE IRMA 11 PM EDT UPDATE SEPT 4, 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 55.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Vieques, and Culebra has been changed to a Hurricane Warning.

The government of Antigua has changed the Hurricane Watch for the
British Virgin Islands to a Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.7 North,
longitude 55.6 West.  Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest late Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane
Hunter observations is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern
Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected by late Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch area in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by
late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Wednesday.  Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area by late Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across
the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico.  These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
during the next several days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
 


 Here you can see a shift northward with NHC forecast track the Florida keys in the path of this major storm.  The Red line is the present position for 11 pm advisory as see above.
 

I PREPARED THIS A LONG TIME AGO AND IT HAS GOOD INFORMATION FOR PLANNING AND PREP

CLICK ON PDF FILE FOR PLANNING PREP BY Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW
file:///C:/Users/Ralph/Documents/Planning%20and%20Preparation.pdf

CALIBRATED EURO MODEL ENSEMBLE INDICATES 40% CHANCE FOR MAJOR STORM WINDS IN FLORIDA

Craig Setzer CBS4 and Conor liked
The latest Calibrated ECMWF Ensembles indicate a 40% chance for Major Hurricane Force Winds in South Florida via next weekend/week

IRMAD 00z MODEL RUN 0900 PM EDT SEPT 4, 2017

MODELS STILL TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH WITH SOME EAST OF FLORIDA MODELS MINUS CLP5 THAT IS A HISTORICAL MODEL OF PAST STORM TRACKS. 

THE HWFI MODEL WHICH I BEEN FOLLOWING IS NOW FURTHER NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  THE HMON HAS NOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.  WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY WHERE THE HWFI  IS A PRESENT.  IT IS NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND FLORIDA AS I SEE IT NOW UNLESS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN EARLIER AND HELPS KEEP IRMA OFFSHORE. 

INTENSITY MODEL KEEPS IRMA AS A CAT 4 AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA AND ONE MODEL SUGGEST CAT 5 IRMA.  THIS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.




WHAT IS A STATE OF EMERGENCY?

55
To be clear, the State of Emergency in Florida simply allows the state to take appropriate prep steps. There is no emergency in FL.

. has declared a state of emergency for Florida ahead of Hurricane Irma



IRMA UPDATE 0500 PM EDT SEPT 4, 2017

...IRMA STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 042036
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...IRMA STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 54.4W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 54.4 West.  Irma is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue into Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwestward late Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center
of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward
Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern
Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected by late Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch area in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by
late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Wednesday.  Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the
tropical storm warning area by late Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches across the Leeward Islands, with isolated maximum
amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands.  These
rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands during the next several days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
 

 

WAVE HEIGHTS OFFSHORE EXPECTED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO 30FT

1h1 hour ago
Wave height forecast for Wed PM from has seas near 30 ft offshore N Puerto Rico and 12 ft seas over 400 nMi from center