000 WTNT33 KNHC 281142 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 84.0W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 84.0 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move across western Cuba this afternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to assess the strength of the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and landslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas tonight or early Sunday. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys from midday through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
FLUS42 KMFL 280913 HWOMFL Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida National Weather Service Miami FL 513 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676- 282115- Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay- Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM- Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry- Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier- Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade- Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami- Dade-Far South Miami-Dade- Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM- Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- 513 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...Deteriorating Conditions as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 Approaches... ...Isolated Tornadoes Possible This Afternoon and Evening... ...Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Through Tonight... This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT Rip currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches. Thunderstorms: Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 over the northwestern Caribbean is forecast to move north-northeast across western Cuba later today, and into the Florida Straits and Northwestern Bahamas late tonight. Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms from this system are expected to overspread South Florida starting later this morning, and continue through the overnight hours. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, along with locally heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes. Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible today, especially this afternoon and evening. Wind: A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, which may produce wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. In addition, conditions will become hazardous over the local Atlantic and Gulf waters as sustained winds increase with the approach and passage of Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all of the local Atlantic waters. Flooding: There is a reasonable threat of minor flooding of streets and poor drainage areas due to heavy rainfall this afternoon and tonight. The heaviest rainfall may lead to to substantial ponding of water, leading to lane closures on roadways, especially in the most vulnerable areas. Waves: Seas will build to 7 to 11 feet well offshore Miami-Dade County as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is forecast to cross through the local Atlantic waters late this evening and overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 is forecast to move quickly away from the region early Sunday morning, followed by another strong cold frontal passage by Sunday afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous conditons over the local Gulf waters, as well as continue hazardous conditions over the local Atlantic waters, into Monday. The Atlantic rip current risk is expected to remain moderate this weekend, with the rip current risk over the Gulf increasing behind the front early next week. Cool and dry conditions behind the front may allow low temperatures Monday morning to drop into the mid to upper 40s across interior Palm Beach, Glades, and Hendry Counties. RH values may also drop into the 30-35 percent range across portions of South Florida Monday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however individual spotters are encouraged to report high wind and flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami. For more information...visit the National Weather Service in Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami. $$During a tropical cyclone situation, view the Hurricane Local Statement for additional hazard details.
000 WTNT33 KNHC 280240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 84.4W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 84.4 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northward motion is expected Saturday morning, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast later on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night. The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and landslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
000 WTNT33 KNHC 272044 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 84.5W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 84.5 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward motion is expected to begin tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system has the potential to produce the following rainfall totals: Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through Friday night. Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba and northwestern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. South Florida including the Florida Keys: 3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum of 8 inches possible. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba Saturday and the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271719 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or Saturday as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before turning northeastward by late Saturday. Tropical storm watches and warnings may be needed for the Cayman Islands, central and western Cuba, and the central and northwestern Bahamas later today or tonight. Interests in the Florida Keys and South Florida should also monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. Rainfall is also forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern and central Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown/Brennan
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271123 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development today and Saturday, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Increasing upper-level winds will make conditions less favorable when the system moves north of Cuba and merges with a cold front on Sunday. Interests in the Cayman Islands and central and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC AC 270524
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with at least a marginal risk of severe weather may
impact southern Florida and the Keys late Saturday afternoon and
evening.
...South Florida...
A positive-tilt synoptic trough currently from the upper MS Valley
to the southern Rockies will undergo further amplification. By 12Z
Saturday this feature will extend from the Great Lakes to the lower
MS Valley and will advance slowly east during the day. Downstream
cold front will stretch from a surface low over the Great Lakes to
the central Gulf early Saturday and approach the Atlantic seaboard
by the end of this period. Preceding the upper trough, a
southern-stream perturbation accompanied by a weak surface low will
emerge from the Caribbean. A warm front will lift north through
southern FL in advance of the low with near 70F dewpoints spreading
inland contributing to destabilization. However, instability will
remain weak owing to widespread clouds and areas of
showers/thunderstorms. Surface-2 km hodograph size will increase by
early evening over south FL in vicinity of the warm front as the
low-level jet strengthens in association with the approaching
surface low, though winds aloft will remain modest. Given the moist
boundary layer and favorable low-level wind profiles expected to
evolve by Saturday evening, some potential exists for convection
developing in this environment to produce a couple of brief
tornadoes. The anticipated weak thermodynamic environment precludes
more than a marginal risk category at this time.
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
| Event: | Hydrologic Outlook | ||
| Alert: | ...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... A tropical disturbance over the Western Caribbean Sea is forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to move slowly north northeast and be near South Florida on Saturday. This disturbance will bring deep tropical moisture to the area leading to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, mainly Saturday and Saturday night. Total rainfall amounts are forecast to be between 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts with any training thunderstorms. If this trend continues for South Florida, then a Flood Watch may be needed later today or tonight for Saturday. | ||
| Instructions: | |||
| Target Area: |
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000 ABNT20 KNHC 261731 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development on Friday and Saturday as the system moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
