NEW STORM INVEST IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN JUNE 15, 2018...0141 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151718
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula is associated
with a surface trough.  While significant development of this system
is not anticipated, heavy rain and strong gusty winds are occurring
across the Yucatan Peninsula today, and will overspread the central
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and reach portions of the Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coasts by Sunday.  For more details on this
system please see products issued by your local weather office and
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake 

---------------------------------------------------------------

Looks rather interesting on visible and water vapor satellite with a bit 

of circulation and some outflow.  None of the models are suggesting 

development in this region, but I will continue to monitor it closely...RTW 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 15, 2018... 1018 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from 
13N28W to 03N29W, moving W at 10 kt. The TPW shows moderate 
moisture associated with the wave. The GOES-16 Geocolor RGB 
imagery shows the presence of the Saharan dust and dry air N of 
the wave at 15N. Isolated moderate convection is noted where the 
wave meets the ITCZ. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 13N45W to 03N46W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The Saharan Air 
Layer from CIMSS shows the wave has dry air and dust N of 13N. 
Isolated moderate convection is behind the wave's axis and N of 
the ITCZ from 7N-10N between 37W-45W. 

A tropical wave is just E of the Windward Islands with axis 
extending from 15N60W to 07N61W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The Saharan
Air Layer dust and dry air is N of 10N. Shallow moisture with
embedded showers is associated with the wave, and will affect the
Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean today. 

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis along 82W from
10N-19N. Scattered showers and tstms are over the SW Caribbean,
likely a combination of the wave and the proximity of the Monsoon 
Through. The wave will move westward into Central America through 
Sat. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The tropics remain quiet for now...RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com 

AFTERNOON TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 14, 2018... 0328 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141730
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough, accompanied by an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, has emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico and
the Bay of Campeche. This system is expected to move generally
west-northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today
through Saturday.  Development, if any, of this disturbance should
be slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

ralphstropicalweather.com

Some of the models are suggesting heavy rains for Texas and a portion of Louisiana...RTW

Day 1-5 Rainfall Forecast 

GFS Precipitable Water Model

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 14, 2018... 1204 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141135
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough located over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to
move west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula and over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday.  Development,
if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

ralphstropicalweather.com 

Mostly rain for Texas if at all!  Not worthy of being on the map

but I always monitor regardless.

AFTERNOON TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 13, 2018... 0302 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a surface trough.  This area of
disturbed weather, accompanied by strong gusty winds, is forecast
to move west-northwestward over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula
later tonight, and move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by
Thursday afternoon.  No development is expected for the next day or
so due to land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula and strong
upper-level winds.  However, environmental conditions could become
slightly more conducive for some development of this disturbance
while it moves across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 13, 2018... 1030 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Bud, located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. An area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better defined
since yesterday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive, and slow development could occur during the
next couple of days as the system drifts north-northwestward.  By
the weekend, interaction with land is expected to limit further
organization.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rain
causing flash floods and mudslides is possible over the southern
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca beginning in
a day or so and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

ralphstropicalweather.com 

Upper level outflow from East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Bud is streaming over the Northwest

Caribbean and suppressing any development from Invest 91L north of Honduras... RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 12, 2018... 1155 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea are associated with a surface trough.  This activity
is forecast to move westward to northwestward over Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, with no
development expected. Environmental conditions could become
slightly more conducive for some development if the system moves
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 12, 2018... 1014 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
western Caribbean Sea is associated with a trough of low pressure.
This area of disturbed weather is expected to move westward to
northwestward over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during
the next couple of days, and little development is expected during
that time due to unfavorable upper-level winds.  Environmental
conditions could become slightly more conducive for some development
when the system moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the
end of the week.  Regardless of development, this disturbance will
likely produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua,
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

--------------------------------------------------------------

ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AND STORM INVEST UPDATE JUNE 11, 2018... 0405 PM EDT

 National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, three tropical waves are observed between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 

A tropical wave is along 25W from 02N-12N. This wave shows up 
as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Currently, 
showers are limited near the wave's axis. African dust surrounds 
the wave limiting convection.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N42W to 05N45W. This wave
was repositioned after analyzing current observations and model 
diagnostics. This wave shows up as a low amplitude moisture surge 
on the TPW product. Scattered showers are near the southern end of
the wave's axis south of 10N between 43W-48W. Saharan dust 
surrounds the northern half of the wave limiting convection.

Another tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 05N-16N. The wave 
coincides with a surge of moistened air, as noted in TPW imagery.
This wave was repositioned after analyzing this data, current
observations, and model diagnostics. Scattered showers are noted 
south of 08N between 55W-58W.

A tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola. This wave was 
repositioned after analyzing current observations/satellite
imagery, and model diagnostics. Its axis is along 70W south of 
19N. Scattered showers are noted along the axis.

A tropical wave is moving across the Bay of Campeche, with axis  
along 92W. This wave is forecast to weaken as it enters the EPAC 
region.

Storm Investigation

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111741
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms has persisted over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea for the past several hours. This activity
is associated with a tropical wave over northwestern Venezuela and
a surface trough located just east of Nicaragua interacting with a
large upper-level trough.  Little development of this area of
disturbed weather is expected over the next few days due to
interaction with Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. However,
environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for
some limited development when the system moves into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.  Regardless of development,
this disturbance will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions
of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula
through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart...NHC

ralphstropicalweather.com

 

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 11, 2018...0931 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, three tropical waves are observed between the coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 

A tropical wave is along 22W from 02N-12N. This wave shows up 
well as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. 
Currently, convection is limited near the wave's axis. African 
dust surrounds the wave limiting convection.

A tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 02N-13N moving westward 15 
to 20 kt. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture 
surge on the TPW product. Scattered showers are near the southern 
end of the wave's axis. Saharan dust surrounds the wave limiting 
convection.

Another tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 03N-13N. The wave 
coincides with a surge of moistened air. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N-08N between 42W-47W.

A tropical wave is moving across Hispaniola. Its axis is along 
71W south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are noted over Hispaniola in association with this
system, forecast to move west through the central Caribbean today
reaching the west Caribbean waters on Tue and Wed. 

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and 
Guatemala, with axis along 91W. This wave is forecast to weaken as
it enters the EPAC region.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

I will continue to monitor the Northwest and Southern Caribbean for 
development even though the GFS has now changed the forecast to No 
development.  For the past two weeks the model has been persistently
saying development and now it has changed its tune.  So just to being 
cautious, I will continue to monitor during this week...RTW

NOTICE TO MY VIEWERS:  I WILL BE CELEBRATING MY 38 WEDDING
ANNIVERSARY TOMORROW TUESDAY JUNE 12, 2018.  I WILL POST
THE MORNING TROPICAL UPDATE BUT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO POST
THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.  I WILL RESUME NORMAL UPDATES ON
WEDNESDAY JUNE 13, 2018.  SORRY FOR THE INCONVENIENCE.
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

ralphstropicalweather.com

  

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK EVENING EDITION JUNE 10, 2018 0927 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 11N
southward. The Hovmoller Diagram clearly indicates the westward 
propagation of the wave, and model diagnostics guidance also 
suggests the presence of this system. This wave shows up well
as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered convective debris
clouds, from earlier and already-dissipated precipitation, cover
the area from 03N to 10N between 16W and 26W. it is possible that 
isolated moderate rainshowers may remain in the area of
cloudiness.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 12N southward 
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. This wave shows up well as a low 
amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Precipitation: 
isolated moderate rainshowers are in the ITCZ from 04N to 08N 
between 29W and 36W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W based on the TPW
animation. The wave coincides with a good surge of moistened air.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 10N
between 37W and 47W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, starting to move 
across Hispaniola, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N to 22N between 63W and
71W. 

A tropical wave is along 88W/89W, moving across the Yucatan 
Peninsula and northern Central America. The wave is interacting 
with an upper level trough, with continued development of
rainshowers in parts of the western Caribbean Sea, northern 
Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula. 

---------------------------------------------------------------

I continue monitoring the Northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone 

formation during the this week as the GFS continues suggesting low 

pressure could possibly develop, and eventually move into the Gulf of 

Mexico.  

An upper level trough has dropped into the northwest Caribbean adding 
some instability for the formation of showers and storms over the southern 
Caribbean and a portion of the northwest Caribbean as it interacts with a 
tropical wave near the Yucatan.  This instability if it persist could be the 
start of an area of disturbed weather and low pressure that the GFS has 
been forecasting for 2 weeks now.  I will continue to monitor this area for
development during the coming week...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY JUN 10, 2018

National Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 102339
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 104.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 104.7 West. Bud is moving toward
the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds
are expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Bud is forecast to strengthen rapidly during the
next 24 hours or so, but weakening is expected to begin by late
Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 145
miles (230 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through
Tuesday afternoon over portions of southwestern Mexico. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of
high terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Monday afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi 

 STORM WIND FIELD RADIUS AND NHC FORECAST TRACK BY RTW

 CURRENT GUIDANCE MODEL RUN

 CMC COMBO MODEL RUN

 H-MODEL COMBO RUN

 UKMET COMBO MODEL RUN

 ADDITIONAL GRAPHICS CURRENT MODEL RUN

 LATE MODEL RUN

 GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL RUN

ATLANTIC TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 10, 2018...1024 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, two tropical waves are observed between the coast of 
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Two tropical waves are moving 
across the Caribbean Sea. 

A tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 4N-14N moving westward 15 
to 20 kt. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture 
surge on the TPW product. Currently, scattered showers are near
the southern end of the wave's axis. African dust surrounds the 
wave.

A second tropical wave extends its axis along 40W south of 15N, 
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate 
convection is seen where the waves axis meets the ITCZ. Saharan 
dust also surrounds the wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis 
is along 65W/66W south of 18N, moving westward 15 to 20 kt. A 
patch of low level moisture with embedded showers is associated 
with the wave, affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The 
wave will reach Hispaniola late today. 

A tropical wave is along 88W moving west at 10 kt. The wave is
interacting with an upper-level trough resulting in continued 
thunderstorm development across parts of the western Caribbean and
northern Central America. Scattered showers and tstms are now
observed near the northern end of the wave's axis. affecting the
east part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

----------------------------------------------------------------

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com