TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 2, 2018... 0400 PM EDT

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 17N29W to 05N29W and 
is moving W at around 15 to 20 kt. Satellite imagery depicts a total 
precipitable water surge in conjunction with this wave. Saharan
dust is embedded in the northern portion of the wave. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 26W and 32W. 

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 19N50W to 05N51W. This
wave is moving W around 15 to 20 kt. This wave coincides with an 
inverted-V signature in total precipitable water data and visible 
satellite imagery. At this time, the wave is surrounded by 
Saharan dust which is inhibiting almost all of the deep convection
in the vicinity of this wave, except for isolated moderate
convection within 60 nm of the wave axis S of 12N.

A tropical wave over the central Caribbean has an axis extending 
from 19N70W to 05N70W, moving westward at 25 to 30 knots. This 
wave displays a low amplitude inverted-V signature evident in 
total precipitable water satellite imagery. Scattered moderate 
convection associated with the wave is noted over Venezuela, and 
from 11N to 15N between 70W and 75W, while Saharan dust 
surrounding the northern portion of the wave is inhibiting 
convection over the north-central Caribbean. 

A tropical wave extends from the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico near
20N95W to SE Mexico, to the Eastern Pacific, moving westward at 10
to 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the wave 
axis over the Gulf of Mexico and SE Mexico. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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NHC is monitoring a low pressure south of the Modbile Alabama and the Florida 

Panhandle for tropical development as it produces

showers and storms over the region.  Low is forecast to track westward

and spread heavy rains over the Southeast states...RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 2, 2018... 1100 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 16N28W to 05N29W and 
is moving W at around 25 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 31W and 36W. 
Satellite imagery depicts a total precipitable water surge in 
conjunction with this wave.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 19N49W to 03N50W. This
wave is moving W around 25 kt. This wave is well defined in model
700 and 850 mb fields and coincides with an inverted-V signature 
in total precipitable water data. At this time, the wave is 
surrounded by Saharan dust which is inhibiting almost all of the 
deep convection in the vicinity of this wave, except for an area 
of scattered moderate convection near the southern tip of the wave
from 04N to 06N between 47W and 52W.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has an axis extending 
from 19N67W to 04N68W, moving westward around 30 knots. This wave 
displays a low amplitude inverted-V signature evident in total
precipitable water satellite imagery. Scattered moderate 
convection associated with the wave is noted over Venezuela, while
Saharan dust surrounding the northern portion of the wave is 
inhibiting convection over the Caribbean. 

A tropical wave has an axis extending from the Isthmus of 
Tehuantepec near 18N94W to over the EPAC waters near 10N95W. Total
precipitable water satellite imagery shows the north side of this
wave has only limited moisture to work with. Accordingly, 
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection associated with 
this wave lies primarily over the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 14N to 
17N between 93W and 96W. This wave will continue moving W across 
southern Mexico today and support the formation of showers and 
thunderstorms along the coast of Mexico to the W of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

----------------------------------------------------------------

The tropics remain quiet for now... RTW

 ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 30 2018...0151 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa is
along 15W from 03N-14N. Scattered moderate convection is noted on
either side of the wave's axis from 05N-10.5N E of 18W to the
coast of Africa. The Hovmoller Diagram shows the westward propagation
of the wave, that also coincides with a moisture surge in the TPW
product.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 04N27W to just W of 
the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N26W moving W around 10 kt. This 
wave is well defined in model diagnostics guidance and TPW 
animation. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the 
southern end of the wave from 03N to 06N between 22W and 26W. The 
the wave is nearly surrounded by dry Saharan air.

A tropical wave has an axis extending N from 05N51W to 18N50W and
is moving westward around 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is present where the wave meets the ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 
45W and 53W. Similar convection is noted near 10N50W. The wave 
shows up well in model diagnostics guidance and TPW product.
African dust surrounds the wave, that also shows an inverted V
pattern on visible satellite imagery. A patch of moisture with
embedded showers is noted ahead of the wave approaching the
Windward Islands. Tropical moisture associated with this feature
will reach the waters E of the Windward Islands late today, and 
move across the islands tonight into Sun, increasing the 
likelihood of showers and isolated tstms. 

A tropical wave has an axis extending N from NW Venezuela to the 
eastern Dominican Republic near 19N70W. This system is moving W 
between 10 and 15 kt and despite its longitude has dry Saharan 
dust on both sides. As a result, there is no significant convection
currently associated with this wave. Some moisture on the SE side
of this wave could enhance convection over the basin this weekend
before the wave reaches Central America by Sun night.

Another tropical wave has an axis extending over Guatemala and El
Salvador into the eastern Pacific region. This wave is slowing 
down and moving W at only around 5 kt. TPW satellite imagery and 
model diagnostics show this wave to be poorly defined. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Sahara Dry air and Dust and cool sea surface temperatures are

are suppressing tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 29, 2018... 1024 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 22W from 02N-16N, moving 
west at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in model diagnostics. 
Convection is limited near the wave's axis. S

A tropical wave extends from 19N41W to 03N44W, moving westward 10
to 15 knots. Scattered showers are near the southern end of the
wave's axis. This wave will move into the tropical North Atlantic 
waters on Sat, and reach the eastern Caribbean early Sun. 

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean and 
extends from the Virgin Islands to central Venezuela. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 12N-16N between 64W-68W. This 
will move across the Caribbean basin through Sat night.

Another tropical wave extends across the NW Caribbean and Central
America into the EPAC region. Its axis is along 86W. Scattered 
moderate convection is where the wave meets the monsoon trough in
the EPAC.  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The Atlantic continues to be unseasonably colder than normal and

if this persist they may need to adjust the forecast to below normal.

RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 28, 2018... 1126 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in Africa, still, along 13W/14W from 17N 
southward. Clouds and precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds from 03N to 18N between 10W and 20W.
isolated moderate rainshowers from 05N to 09N between 11W and 17W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/36W from 20N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation
appears to be more related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/58W from 20N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation
appears to be more related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 20N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of
the Caribbean Sea, from 10N to 12N between 80W and 84W in SE
Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 10N southward between the coast of Colombia and 80W near
Panama. 

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of 
Mexico, along 95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern 
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 23N
southward between 90W and Mexico.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

The tropics remain quiet for now!

ralphstropicalweather.com

AFTERNOON TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 27, 2018... 0321 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis from 01N to 20N along 27W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 04N-10N 
between 25W-32W. While no surface observations were in the 
vicinity of the wave, visible satellite imagery suggests that 
either a distinct surface trough or broad low is present. A
distinct maximum in total precipitable water (TPW) exists along
and east of the wave's axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to 
southeast wind shift along the wave axis as it progresses westward
across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from 01N to 19N, and 
is estimated to be progressing west at 15-20 kt. No significant 
convection is related to this wave at this time. The wave also has
negligible surface signature, though it is well-present in the 
700 mb model diagnostics and TPW.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the central Caribbean and 
South America along 78W from 02N to 19N, and is moving west about
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists
south of 13N within 300 nm west of the wave's axis. The wave has 
negligible surface signature and cannot be easily identified in 
TPW, though it is present in the 700 mb model diagnostics

A tropical wave is progressing west through Central America and 
is currently analyzed with axis along 90W and extends south from 
22N into the east Pacific near 09N. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is occurring east of the wave axis over
portions of Central America. The wave does have some surface
circulation as well as being apparent in the TPW imagery. This 
tropical wave has the potential to develop into an east Pacific 
tropical cyclone later this week.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

A Strong surge of moisture Meso type thunderstorm, more than likely

associated with a new tropical wave, is emerging off the coast of

Africa. This system is pushing more African Dust westward over the

Atlantic... RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 27, 2018... 1101 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271129
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak, non-tropical low pressure system located offshore of the
the southeastern coast of North Carolina continues to produce a
small area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental
conditions are not expected to be conducive for development while
this system moves northeastward away from the United States during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

-------------------------------------------------------------------

There is another strong wave about to emerge off the African coast that is

kicking up Sahara Dust westward over the Atlantic waters.

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time..RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 26, 2018... 0402 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261721
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A complex, non-tropical area of low pressure has formed near the
coast of North Carolina.  Environmental conditions could support
this system gradually acquiring some tropical characteristics over
the next few days while the system moves slowly eastward or
northeastward away from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

----------------------------------------------------------------

Monitoring the coast of the Carolina for tropical cyclone formation...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 26, 2018...1042 AM

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261135
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is likely to form along a
stationary front near the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday.
Thereafter, environmental conditions could support this system
acquiring some tropical characteristics over the next few days as
the system moves eastward or northeastward away from the United
States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


$$
Forecaster Blake

----------------------------------------------------------------

There are some models that are suggesting tropical cyclone formation

as low pressure moves off the east coast of the U.S... There are no

signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 25, 2018... 0413 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with strong signature has been added to the 
surface analysis over western Africa from 02N to 20N along 11W.
A squall line precedes the wave by about 90 nm, and a cluster of
strong convection has moved off the African coast to within 
75 nm of 09N16W. The longitude of wave axis will likely be adjusted
as it passes sites of radiosonde launches over the next few 
days. 

A tropical wave is analyzed along 31.5W from 02N to 18N, and is 
estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Isolated moderate 
convection is observed from 04N to 14N within 210 nm either side 
of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave is analyzed across the east Caribbean from 09N to 
20N along 63W and is moving west about 18 kt, but should soon 
begin to slow it's forward progression as it continues southwest 
of the a surface high near 30N52W. Isolated showers and tstms 
are observed within 210 nm of the wave. 

A tropical wave is moving west through the central Caribbean and 
is currently analyzed along 74W and extends north across the 
Mona Passage and south across northern Colombia. Isolated 
showers and tstms are enhanced near the wave across northwest 
Venezuela and northeast Colombia, with a few showers and tstms 
also noted along the wave at 17N. 

Another tropical wave is along 87.5W and will pass across the 
Yucatan Peninsula and portions of central America late today. 
Only isolated showers currently accompany the wave. This wave 
will likely lose identity on Tue as it merges into a broad low 
pressure over the East Pacific along 95W where conditions are 
expected to become favorable for tropical cyclone formation late 
this week.  Numerous strong convection is currently observed 
across the far southwest Caribbean between two tropical waves. 

--------------------------------------------------------------

I added NEW Live National Weather Service Radar webpage to 

Ralph's Tropical Weather site.  Button at top will take you

there.  I am still adding more Radar so check back daily... RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 25, 2018...1035 AM EDT

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico... RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 24, 2018... 1019 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along
19W from 03N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection associated to 
this wave is noted from 07N to 10N between 19W and 21W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W from 03N to 19N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave
meets the ITCZ from 06N to 08N between 50W and 55W.

The axis of a tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 
63W from eastern Venezuela northward to the Leeward Islands, 
moving W at 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave's axis. 

The axis of a tropical wave extends from eastern Cuba to eastern
Panama. This wave, is interacting with an upper level trough 
extending across the SE Bahamas to the central Caribbean, and will
enhance convection over Cuba today. 

Another tropical wave is near 89W, and extends over the Yucatan
Peninsula and Guatemala into the eastern north Pacific region. 
This wave in conjunction with an upper level low spinning over the
west-central Gulf of Mexico will continue to support convection
over SE Mexico and the SW Gulf of Mexico.  

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

------------------------------------------------------------------

The tropics remain quiet for now... RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 23, 2018... 1122 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near the west coast of Africa along
16W from 04N-18N. Scattered moderate convection associated to 
this wave is noted from 06N-10N between 14W and 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave extends from 18N40W to 03N41W.  
Isolated moderate convection is noted at the base of this wave. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W from 04N to 18N, moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-09N 
between 54W and 59W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W from the coast of 
western Venezuela to eastern Hispaniola, moving W at 10-15 knots.
This wave, in conjunction with an upper level trough, is helping 
for active convection over the northeastern Caribbean east of the 
wave axis. This convective activity is affecting Puerto Rico and
parts of Hispaniola.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W extending from the eastern
north Pacific across western Panama to western Cuba. The wave is 
helping for enhanced convection over the NW Caribbean west of 78W,
and the western half of Cuba. Clusters of moderate to strong
convection are seen where the wave meets the monsoon trough.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time... RTW 

ralphstropicalweather.com