God Bless and Protect this Nation and the World!
Have a Safe 4th of July...RTW
...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 16N southward, moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 19N southward, moving W 10 knots. The low level cloud field associated with this wave exhibits an inverted-V signature. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 08N to 15N between 50W and 60W, and from 08N to 13N between 60W and 64W in parts of the SE Caribbean Sea and Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago. The moisture that is associated with this wave will a modest increase in the chances for rainshowers for the eastern Caribbean Sea islands during the next day or so. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W from 22N in Cuba southward, across Jamaica. The wave is moving westward 20 knots. Broad cyclonic wind flow exists at 500 mb and 700 mb, from 20N southward between 80W and Central America. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover the area from 11N to 14N between 80W and 85W, in the Caribbean Sea and in Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea from 18N southward between 74W and 84W. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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National Hurricane Center
CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCE
000 ABNT20 KNHC 031731 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of disturbed weather has formed a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Upper-level winds could become somewhat conducive for development by late this week when the disturbance is forecast to be southwest of Bermuda. The system is forecast to move generally northward over the weekened and begin interacting with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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1. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ORLEANS THAT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS AS IT TRACKS
SLOWLY WESTWARD.
2. A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE GRAND
BAHAMAS IS ALSO PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM COULD ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW JULY 4TH.
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 16N33W to 04N34W and is moving W around 10 kt. The wave coincides with a surge of moisture as noted in the TPW product, but African dust surrounds the northern side of the wave and is inhibiting convection there. Scattered moderate convection is seen within the moister southern portion of the wave from 01N to 08N between 30W and 36W. A tropical wave extends from 19N52W to 05N53W. This feature is moving W around 10 kt. The low level cloud field associated with this wave exhibits an inverted-V signature. This wave shows up well in the TPW animation where a pronounced bulge of moisture is observed. This wave remains surrounded by Saharan dust which is limiting convection in the vicinity of this wave. Only a small cluster of moderate convection is noted E of the wave axis from 09N to 11N between 49W and 51W. Moisture associated with this wave will begin reaching the Windward Islands early this afternoon and bring a modest increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms for this area during the next day or so. A tropical wave has an axis extending from the eastern Cuba near 21N76W to the coast of Colombia 08N77W, moving westward at around 20 knots. The wave is well depicted in the moisture product. The monsoon trough extends E over the SW Caribbean from Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 10N74W. The tropical wave is interacting with the trough to generate numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 11N to 13N between 81W and 84W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 120 nm of a line from 08N75W to 14N83W. Model guidance indicates that the abundant moisture associated with this wave will spread W from the SW Caribbean over Nicaragua and Honduras this afternoon and tonight. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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A mid to upper level low north of the Bahamas continues tracking
west and could begin to affect the Florida Peninsula this evening
and on the 4th of July enhancing the rain and storm chance tomorrow.
A low south of Mississippi is also tracking slowly westward. This
low is producing heavy rains and storms over the lower half of
Louisiana. There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation...RTW
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 17N29W to 05N29W and is moving W at around 15 to 20 kt. Satellite imagery depicts a total precipitable water surge in conjunction with this wave. Saharan dust is embedded in the northern portion of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 26W and 32W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 19N50W to 05N51W. This wave is moving W around 15 to 20 kt. This wave coincides with an inverted-V signature in total precipitable water data and visible satellite imagery. At this time, the wave is surrounded by Saharan dust which is inhibiting almost all of the deep convection in the vicinity of this wave, except for isolated moderate convection within 60 nm of the wave axis S of 12N. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean has an axis extending from 19N70W to 05N70W, moving westward at 25 to 30 knots. This wave displays a low amplitude inverted-V signature evident in total precipitable water satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave is noted over Venezuela, and from 11N to 15N between 70W and 75W, while Saharan dust surrounding the northern portion of the wave is inhibiting convection over the north-central Caribbean. A tropical wave extends from the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico near 20N95W to SE Mexico, to the Eastern Pacific, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the wave axis over the Gulf of Mexico and SE Mexico. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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NHC is monitoring a low pressure south of the Modbile Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle for tropical development as it produces
showers and storms over the region. Low is forecast to track westward
and spread heavy rains over the Southeast states...RTW
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 16N28W to 05N29W and is moving W at around 25 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 31W and 36W. Satellite imagery depicts a total precipitable water surge in conjunction with this wave. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 19N49W to 03N50W. This wave is moving W around 25 kt. This wave is well defined in model 700 and 850 mb fields and coincides with an inverted-V signature in total precipitable water data. At this time, the wave is surrounded by Saharan dust which is inhibiting almost all of the deep convection in the vicinity of this wave, except for an area of scattered moderate convection near the southern tip of the wave from 04N to 06N between 47W and 52W. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has an axis extending from 19N67W to 04N68W, moving westward around 30 knots. This wave displays a low amplitude inverted-V signature evident in total precipitable water satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave is noted over Venezuela, while Saharan dust surrounding the northern portion of the wave is inhibiting convection over the Caribbean. A tropical wave has an axis extending from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec near 18N94W to over the EPAC waters near 10N95W. Total precipitable water satellite imagery shows the north side of this wave has only limited moisture to work with. Accordingly, numerous moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this wave lies primarily over the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 14N to 17N between 93W and 96W. This wave will continue moving W across southern Mexico today and support the formation of showers and thunderstorms along the coast of Mexico to the W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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The tropics remain quiet for now... RTW
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave that has emerged off the west coast of Africa is along 15W from 03N-14N. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave's axis from 05N-10.5N E of 18W to the coast of Africa. The Hovmoller Diagram shows the westward propagation of the wave, that also coincides with a moisture surge in the TPW product. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 04N27W to just W of the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N26W moving W around 10 kt. This wave is well defined in model diagnostics guidance and TPW animation. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the southern end of the wave from 03N to 06N between 22W and 26W. The the wave is nearly surrounded by dry Saharan air. A tropical wave has an axis extending N from 05N51W to 18N50W and is moving westward around 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is present where the wave meets the ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 45W and 53W. Similar convection is noted near 10N50W. The wave shows up well in model diagnostics guidance and TPW product. African dust surrounds the wave, that also shows an inverted V pattern on visible satellite imagery. A patch of moisture with embedded showers is noted ahead of the wave approaching the Windward Islands. Tropical moisture associated with this feature will reach the waters E of the Windward Islands late today, and move across the islands tonight into Sun, increasing the likelihood of showers and isolated tstms. A tropical wave has an axis extending N from NW Venezuela to the eastern Dominican Republic near 19N70W. This system is moving W between 10 and 15 kt and despite its longitude has dry Saharan dust on both sides. As a result, there is no significant convection currently associated with this wave. Some moisture on the SE side of this wave could enhance convection over the basin this weekend before the wave reaches Central America by Sun night. Another tropical wave has an axis extending over Guatemala and El Salvador into the eastern Pacific region. This wave is slowing down and moving W at only around 5 kt. TPW satellite imagery and model diagnostics show this wave to be poorly defined.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Sahara Dry air and Dust and cool sea surface temperatures are
are suppressing tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 22W from 02N-16N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in model diagnostics. Convection is limited near the wave's axis. S A tropical wave extends from 19N41W to 03N44W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are near the southern end of the wave's axis. This wave will move into the tropical North Atlantic waters on Sat, and reach the eastern Caribbean early Sun. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean and extends from the Virgin Islands to central Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N-16N between 64W-68W. This will move across the Caribbean basin through Sat night. Another tropical wave extends across the NW Caribbean and Central America into the EPAC region. Its axis is along 86W. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave meets the monsoon trough in the EPAC. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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The Atlantic continues to be unseasonably colder than normal and
if this persist they may need to adjust the forecast to below normal.
RTW
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in Africa, still, along 13W/14W from 17N southward. Clouds and precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds from 03N to 18N between 10W and 20W. isolated moderate rainshowers from 05N to 09N between 11W and 17W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/36W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation appears to be more related to the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/58W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Any precipitation appears to be more related to the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 10N to 12N between 80W and 84W in SE Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between the coast of Colombia and 80W near Panama. A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along 95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 23N southward between 90W and Mexico.
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The tropics remain quiet for now!
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis from 01N to 20N along 27W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 04N-10N between 25W-32W. While no surface observations were in the vicinity of the wave, visible satellite imagery suggests that either a distinct surface trough or broad low is present. A distinct maximum in total precipitable water (TPW) exists along and east of the wave's axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift along the wave axis as it progresses westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from 01N to 19N, and is estimated to be progressing west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. The wave also has negligible surface signature, though it is well-present in the 700 mb model diagnostics and TPW. A tropical wave is analyzed across the central Caribbean and South America along 78W from 02N to 19N, and is moving west about 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection exists south of 13N within 300 nm west of the wave's axis. The wave has negligible surface signature and cannot be easily identified in TPW, though it is present in the 700 mb model diagnostics A tropical wave is progressing west through Central America and is currently analyzed with axis along 90W and extends south from 22N into the east Pacific near 09N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring east of the wave axis over portions of Central America. The wave does have some surface circulation as well as being apparent in the TPW imagery. This tropical wave has the potential to develop into an east Pacific tropical cyclone later this week.
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A Strong surge of moisture Meso type thunderstorm, more than likely
associated with a new tropical wave, is emerging off the coast of
Africa. This system is pushing more African Dust westward over the
Atlantic... RTW
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271129 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A weak, non-tropical low pressure system located offshore of the the southeastern coast of North Carolina continues to produce a small area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development while this system moves northeastward away from the United States during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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There is another strong wave about to emerge off the African coast that is
kicking up Sahara Dust westward over the Atlantic waters.
There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time..RTW
000 ABNT20 KNHC 261721 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A complex, non-tropical area of low pressure has formed near the coast of North Carolina. Environmental conditions could support this system gradually acquiring some tropical characteristics over the next few days while the system moves slowly eastward or northeastward away from the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Monitoring the coast of the Carolina for tropical cyclone formation...RTW
000 ABNT20 KNHC 261135 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical area of low pressure is likely to form along a stationary front near the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support this system acquiring some tropical characteristics over the next few days as the system moves eastward or northeastward away from the United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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There are some models that are suggesting tropical cyclone formation
as low pressure moves off the east coast of the U.S... There are no
signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.
...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with strong signature has been added to the surface analysis over western Africa from 02N to 20N along 11W. A squall line precedes the wave by about 90 nm, and a cluster of strong convection has moved off the African coast to within 75 nm of 09N16W. The longitude of wave axis will likely be adjusted as it passes sites of radiosonde launches over the next few days. A tropical wave is analyzed along 31.5W from 02N to 18N, and is estimated to be progressing west at 18 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 04N to 14N within 210 nm either side of the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed across the east Caribbean from 09N to 20N along 63W and is moving west about 18 kt, but should soon begin to slow it's forward progression as it continues southwest of the a surface high near 30N52W. Isolated showers and tstms are observed within 210 nm of the wave. A tropical wave is moving west through the central Caribbean and is currently analyzed along 74W and extends north across the Mona Passage and south across northern Colombia. Isolated showers and tstms are enhanced near the wave across northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia, with a few showers and tstms also noted along the wave at 17N. Another tropical wave is along 87.5W and will pass across the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of central America late today. Only isolated showers currently accompany the wave. This wave will likely lose identity on Tue as it merges into a broad low pressure over the East Pacific along 95W where conditions are expected to become favorable for tropical cyclone formation late this week. Numerous strong convection is currently observed across the far southwest Caribbean between two tropical waves.
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I added NEW Live National Weather Service Radar webpage to
Ralph's Tropical Weather site. Button at top will take you
there. I am still adding more Radar so check back daily... RTW