Well this is getting really ridiculous with this web site builder and servers. It seems like at least once a month or even twice a month, I loose connection to their server, and I am unable to edit and publish RTW website. This is annoying and it is not fair to those who have donated to have RTW website on the web. I will continue to post maps and tropical updates on the blog because so far it seems to be more stable, and is also a good back up if the site server is down. I apologize for the inconvenience this is causing but it is out of my control. I have open several tickets with support but this continues to happen. Either they are doing unannounced maintenance or they have a serious problems with their servers. Check back later to see if this has been resolved and once again I am sorry for the inconvenience.
Ralph
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)
Thursday, August 16, 2018
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
ERNESTO UPDATE AND TROPIC OUTLOOK AUG 18, 2018...
ERNESTO UPDATE
951 WTNT35 KNHC 152035 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 ...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 45.7W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 45.7 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast tonight, and a faster northeastward motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. The system is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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TROPICAL OUTLOOK
956 AXNT20 KNHC 151809 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 209 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Subtropical Storm Ernesto is centered near 38.1N 46.0W at 15/1500 UTC or 600 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is just off the coast of W Africa along 19W, from 05N-16N, moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on either side of the wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W, from 06N-19N, moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on either side of the wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 06N-22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 15N-18N between 50W- 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 08N-22N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is repositioned along a 700 mb axis. This is now the only wave located in the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is S of W Cuba from 19N- 22N between 80W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa from near 09N13W, to 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 10N36W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from 10N40W to 08N55W. Besides the showers mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between 40W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NE upper level winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to a large upper level high centered over N Mexico near 29N106W. At the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N68W. Surface ridging extends from the high to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf from 24N-30N between 83W-90W. Elsewhere, widely scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-23N between 96W-98W. The surface ridge, extending westward from the Atlantic Ocean into the northern Gulf of Mexico will prevail across the region for the rest of the week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night, accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical waves is over the W Caribbean Sea. See above. A small upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near 25N78W producing scattered showers. Another upper level low is centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 18N86W. Upper level diffluence from this low is enhancing the convection S of W Cuba. The monsoon trough is along 09N from Costa Rica to N Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 13N between 70W-80W. A surface ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the rest of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic N of 28N and W of 75W. A large upper level high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N56W. Upper level diffluence E of this center is enhancing convection near 30N47W. At the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N68W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 32N55W to 26N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-30N between 56W-61W. The tail end of another surface trough extends from 32N46W to 27N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-32N between 45W-49W. A large 1028 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 38N28W with ridging N of 23N between 15W-45W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
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Ernesto expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters
of the north Atlantic. I am monitoring an area of showers
storms between 50°-40° West and 10° North that has a slight
chance for short term development...RTW
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE SERVER TO MY SITE PROVIDER
SEEMS TO BE TEMPORARY DOWN SO CHECK BACK LATER.
ALSO NOTE THAT I WAS UNABLE TO UPDATE RTW TRACK MAP.
BECAUSE OF SERVER PROBLEM...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
ERNESTO UPDATE AND TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 15, 2018... 1100 AM EDT
ERNESTO
591 WTNT35 KNHC 151451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 46.0W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 46.0 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today, and a faster northeastward motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. The system is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
024 AXNT20 KNHC 151203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... At 15/0900 UTC, the center of Subtropical Depression Five is located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 45.6 West, about 882 nm W of the Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). The subtropical depression is moving toward the north near 4 kt, and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected today. A faster northeastward motion is forecast to occur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the subtropical depression is expected to become a subtropical storm later today. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 22N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on either side of the wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 20N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 15N-18N between 50W-60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 21N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of Jamaica from 18N-20N between 75W-78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over N Colombia and NW Venezuela between 07N-12N between 70W-78W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W, from 23N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 11N18W, 10N20W, and then to 10N33W. The ITCZ is along 09N36W 08N43W 07N48W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-11N between 39W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NE upper level winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to a large upper level high centered over N Mexico near 29N106W. At the surface, a 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N70W. Surface ridging extends from the high to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is over the NE Gulf from 25N- 29N between 83W-88W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 17N-22N between 95W-98W. The surface ridge, extending westward from the Atlantic Ocean into the northern Gulf of Mexico will prevail across the region for the rest of the week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night, accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. An upper level trough passes over Andros Island in the Bahamas, to Belize in Central America. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that runs from Haiti to Cuba, and from Honduras to Guatemala to SE Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible also from 15N northward from 80W westward, and elsewhere from 70W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 100 nm to the north of the northern coast of Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 360 nm of the center in NE semicircle. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 73W in Colombia and 84W in southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Panama, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela between 07N-12N between 70W-82W. A surface ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the rest of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is along the coast of the SE U.S.A., passing through 32N76W to Andros Island in the Bahamas, to Belize in Central America. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs through 32N70W to 28N80W along the Florida coast, from Haiti to Cuba, and from Honduras to Guatemala to SE Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible over the W Atlantic W of 73W to include the Bahamas. An upper level trough passes through 32N37W in the north central Atlantic Ocean, to 22N47W to 14N60W, just to the east of Martinique and Saint Lucia. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 480 nm to the north of the trough between 49W and 60W. A surface trough passes through 32N48W to 26N56W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 26N northward between 44W and 60W. Gentle to moderate trade winds, with a 30N surface ridge, will prevail across the region for the rest of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
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ERNESTO IS NOT A THREAT LAND AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE
THE TROPICS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET FOR NOW...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
Tuesday, August 14, 2018
TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 14, 2018... 0342 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
469 AXNT20 KNHC 141759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A low pressure system centered near 37N47W is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms east of the center. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move NE over colder waters Thursday and Friday. There is medium potential for this low to become a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 08N to 20N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered rain showers are in the monsoon trough area from 07N to 10N between 26W and 33W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 08N to 21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the monsoon trough area from 07N to 09N between 46W and 55W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 10N to 22N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of N Hispaniola from 18N to 22N between 68W and 72W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 10N to 22N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the monsoon trough south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 10N30W to 09N42W. The ITCZ continues from 09N42W to 08N450W to the coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 37W and 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation is over southern Mexico near 18N100W. Isolated showers are over the area. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and west of 90W. A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation centered near 28N94W spans the rest of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain showers are over the NE Gulf from 26N to 31N between 82W and 87W. On the surface a surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 31N86W to 28N90W. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 20N95W to 17N94W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis. A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle of the week, allowing the winds to diminish. A surface ridge will support light to moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of the basin through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the coast of N Cuba near 23N78W. Upper level diffluence is over Hispaniola enhancing convection. Another upper level cyclonic circulation is over the NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Upper level diffluence is over Honduras and Nicaragua enhancing convection. The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 74W and 84W, to include N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Surface high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through tonight. Winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, have begun to subside, and continue during the middle of the week as western Atlantic Ocean high pressure slowly weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic N of the N Bahamas and W of 77W. A large upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N59W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is enhancing convection near 29N50W. A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center near 30N67W to N Florida. The tail end of a surface trough extends from 32N50W to 26N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Another 1025 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 38N25W producing fair weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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STORM INVEST 98L
179 ABNT20 KNHC 141725 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical low appears to be forming to the east of the larger complex low pressure system centered several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. This new low could acquire some subtropical characteristics by Wednesday. However, after that time the low should be moving northeastward over colder waters and be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 14, 2018... 0948 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
692 AXNT20 KNHC 141207 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 807 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A low pressure system centered near 37N47W is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms east of the center. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move NE over colder waters Thursday and Friday. There is medium potential for this low to become a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 08N to 20N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered rain showers are in the monsoon trough area from 07N to 10N between 26W and 32W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 08N to 21N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the monsoon trough area from 07N to 09N between 47W and 54W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 10N to 22N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of N Hispaniola from 18N to 21N between 67W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 10N to 22N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the monsoon trough south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W to 09N20W to 10N40W. The ITCZ continues from 10N40W to 08N450W to the coast of South America near 07N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 36W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation is over southern Mexico near 18N100W. Isolated showers are over the area. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and west of 90W. A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation centered near 28N94W spans the rest of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain showers are over the NE Gulf from 26N to 31N between 82W and 87W. On the surface a surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 31N85W to 26N88W. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 24N90W to 18N93W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis. A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle of the week, allowing the winds to diminish. A surface ridge will support light to moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of the basin through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the coast of N Cuba near 23N78W. Upper level diffluence is over Hispaniola enhancing convection. Another upper level cyclonic circulation is over the NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Upper level diffluence is over Honduras and Nicaragua enhancing convection. The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 74W and 83W, to include N Colombia and Panama. Surface high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through today. Winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, have begun to subside, and continue during the middle of the week as western Atlantic Ocean high pressure slowly weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow from an upper level trough covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and Hispaniola northward and west of 70W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Upper level cyclonic wind flow associated with a trough covers the Atlantic from 22N northward between 35W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers cover the Atlantic Ocean north of 28N between 45W and 56W. A low pressure center and a trailing surface trough are north of the area along 50W. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center near 30N66W. The tail end of a surface trough extends from 32N50W to 27N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Another 1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N29W producing fair weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Monday, August 13, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 13, 2018...0318 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
190 AXNT20 KNHC 131753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 20N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the monsoon trough area, from 07N to 10N between 26W and 34W. It is possible that any precipitation may be more related to the monsoon trough than to just the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 21N southward, moving west 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 40W and 44W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 21N southward. It is possible that any precipitation may be more related to the ITCZ than to just the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are between Jamaica and SE Cuba. It is possible that this precipitation may be more related to the current upper level cyclonic wind flow than to just the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W, to 10N24W 09N29W and 10N41W. The ITCZ is along 08N46W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 09N to 11N between 60W and 62W, near Venezuela and Trinidad. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N to 12N between 58W and 64W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 11N between 46W and 56W. Other isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 44W eastward. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for Trinidad, that is listed for the period that ended at 13/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.81. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 24N southward from 90W westward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the area. A surface trough extends from the Florida Big Bend to 25N85W in the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N to 29N between Florida and 91W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N northward from 92W eastward. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N89W. A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle of the week, and it will allow the wind speeds to subside. A surface ridge generally will support light to moderate E to SE winds in the remainder of the basin through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow across the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from the Windward Passage westward, including to 90W in the Yucatan Peninsula and in Central America. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 15N northward between 75W and 90W. The areas of the comparatively greatest concentration of precipitation are: from the coast of Honduras to 20N in the Yucatan Peninsula between 84W and 90W, and between Jamaica and SE Cuba. Broken low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the areas that are from 17N to 21N between 58W and the Windward Passage, and from 12N to 18N between 65W and 74W. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 73W in Colombia and 85W in Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 45 nm on either side of the line that runs from 09N80W at the coast of Panama, to 12N85W in south central Nicaragua. Surface high pressure, that is to the north of the area, will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. Earlier strong to minimal gale force winds, that were being experienced along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, have begun to subside. The wind speeds and the sea heights in the Caribbean Sea will subside during the middle of the week, as the western Atlantic Ocean high pressure center gradually weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an upper level trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and Hispaniola northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward between 35W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward between 45W and 56W. A low pressure center and a surface trough are to the north of the area, along 50W. A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 33N34W, to 28N50W, to a second 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 30N63W, to the NW Bahamas. The surface ridge will remain in place during the next several days. This ridge will help to maintain fresh to locally strong winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage, during the evening and nighttime hours. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow will continue N of 23N, while mainly moderate easterly wind flow will prevail S of 23N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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STORM INVESTIGATION
049 ABNT20 KNHC 131713 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad non-tropical area of low pressure located a little more than 600 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Some development could occur within this complex low pressure area while it moves toward the northeast during the next 2 to 3 days before it reaches the colder waters of the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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TROPICAL OUTLOOK AUG 13, 2018... 1053 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
617 AXNT20 KNHC 131204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W, from 20N southward, moving west 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the monsoon trough area. It is possible that any precipitation may be more related to the monsoon trough than to just the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 21N southward, moving west 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in model diagnostics and 700 mb streamline analysis, and TPW imagery shows moderate moisture in its vicinity. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 40W and 43W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 21N southward, moving west 15-20 kt. This wave is also depicted in model diagnostics. It is possible that any precipitation may be more related to the monsoon trough than to just the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W from 22N southward, moving west 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are between Jamaica and SE Cuba. It is possible that this precipitation may be more related to the current upper level cyclonic wind flow than to just the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of NW Mauritania near 21N17W, to 16N21W 10N26W and 10N40W. The ITCZ is along 08N between 45W and 55W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N to 11N between land and 22W, and from 04N to 10N between 26W and 38W, and from 07N to 11N between 47W and 63W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 28N88W. With this, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the area. To the southwest, a surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from 23N93W to 19N92W. A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will accompany this trough. It will become weaker by mid-week. High pressure, elsewhere, generally will support light to moderate E to SE winds in the remainder of the basin through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is centered near 21N80W. This feature is enhancing convection across the northwest Caribbean waters mainly north of 18W and west of 79W, including western Cuba. A tropical wave is along 72W. The monsoon trough extends along 10N between 76W- 82W. Scattered showers are in Panama and Costa Rica. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected along the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela through early this morning. Winds and seas in the Caribbean Sea will subside during mid-week as the western Atlantic Ocean high pressure weakens slightly. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low is centered in the northwestern Caribbean Sea near 21N80W. This feature is also enhancing convection across the western Atlantic Ocean, mainly across the Bahamas. Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 31N61W and another 1026 mb high near 34N35W. The surface ridge will remain in place during the next several days. This ridge will help to maintain fresh to locally strong winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage, during the evening and nighttime hours. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow will continue N of 23N, while mainly moderate easterly wind flow will prevail S of 23N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ era/mt
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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STORM INVESTIGATION
112 ABNT20 KNHC 131134 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical broad area of low pressure is located a little more than 600 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Conditions could become somewhat favorable for subtropical or tropical development during the next 2 or 3 days, and if formation occurs, the system should move toward the northeast over the north Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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The tropics reamin quiet just that one swirl with a low chance
for development within the next few days... RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
Sunday, August 12, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 12, 2018... 1212 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
420
AXNT20 KNHC 121205
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA...
NE-to-E GALE-FORCE WINDS are being experienced from 11N to 13N
between 70W and 76W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Expect
sea heights to range from 9 feet to 13 feet, in the Caribbean Sea
but not in the Gulf of Venezuela. Expect the GALE-FORCE wind
conditions to continue for the next 12 hours or so, before slowing
down to less than gale-force. GALE-FORCE wind conditions will
start again Monday morning in the same areas, and last for 12
hours or so, ending during the early afternoon hours. Please read
the High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the WMO/AFOS
headers, as FZNT02 KNHC/MIAHSFAT2, for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W/17W from 19N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 04N to 11N between land and 20W.
It is easily possible that some of this precipitation also
is related to the monsoon trough.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 21N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 17N
between 34W and 42W. It is easily possible that some of this
precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 21N
southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 08N to 10N between 48W and 56W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N to 10N between 44W and
60W. It is easily possible that some of this precipitation also is
related to the monsoon trough.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 21N
southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 24N in the Atlantic Ocean between
66W and 72W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 12N37W, and 08N46W. The ITCZ is along 10N40W
08N45W 08N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 04N to 10N between 20W and 34W. Other broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are
elsewhere, away from the precipitation that is attributed to the
tropical waves, from 10N southward from 40W eastward.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered near 27N87W. With this, a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails across the area. To the southwest, a
surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from 22N94W to
19N94W. Abundant cloudiness and scattered showers prevail across
the west Gulf mainly west of 93W. An area of upper level
diffluence prevails across the southeast Gulf waters enhancing
scattered showers currently affecting the Florida Straits and
Keys.
A nocturnal trough moving off the Yucatan peninsula
will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Bay
of Campeche each night. Otherwise, high pressure ridging will
prevail across the area, supporting moderate to locally fresh SE
winds over the west-central and NW Gulf most of the forecast
period.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is
centered near 18N75W. This feature is enhancing convection across
the northwest Caribbean waters mainly north of 20W and west of
74W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 66W. For more
information, refer to the section above. The monsoon trough
extends along 10N between 76W-82W. Scattered showers are noted
across Panama and Costa Rica due to this.
High pressure, that is to the north of the area, will support
fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through
Tuesday. It is possible that sustained wind speeds may reach
gale force along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela from tonight into Monday morning. The winds and seas
in the Caribbean Sea will subside during the middle of the week,
as the surface ridge that is in the western Atlantic Ocean weakens
slightly.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level low is centered over the northwest Caribbean near
18N75W. This feature is also enhancing convection across the west
Atlantic, mainly over the Bahamas. Two tropical waves are moving
across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge,
anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 29N54W and a 1030 mb high
near 35N35W.
The current surface ridge will remain in place during the next
several days. The ridge will help to maintain gentle to moderate
anticyclonic wind flow N of 23N, and mainly moderate easterly
wind flow will prevail S of 23N. This scenario will support fresh
to locally strong winds along the N coast of Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward Passage during the evening and
nighttime hours.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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912
ABNT20 KNHC 121143
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles south
of Cape Race, Newfoundland is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the south of its center of circulation. This low
could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics
through the middle of the week while it meanders over the central
subtropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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The INVEST that was in the Central Atlantic has been removed
since there were no longer signs of any development. The INVEST
in the North Atlantic remains and development if any will be short lived.
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
Saturday, August 11, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE AUG 11, 2018... 0713 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
925 AXNT20 KNHC 111720 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA... The 12-hour forecast, meaning on Saturday night, consists of frequent gusts to GALE-FORCE, near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Expect NE to E winds 20 to 30 knots, from 11N to 13N between 70W and 76W. Sea heights will range from 9 feet to 12 feet. The 36-hour forecast, meaning on Sunday night, consists of GALE-FORCE NE winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, and frequent gusts to GALE-FORCE winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. The sea heights are forecast to range from 9 feet to 13 feet. Please read the High Seas Forecast, that is listed under the WMO/AFOS headers, as FZNT02 KNHC/MIAHSFAT2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W from 21N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to 16N between 30W and 40W. It is easily possible that some of this precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 21N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 09N to 12N between 40W and 43W. It is easily possible that some of this precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 21N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 18N to 23N between 60W and 65W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea between 60W and 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 19N16W, to 13N30W, and 08N46W. The ITCZ continues from 08N46W to 04N50W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, away from the precipitation that is attributed to the tropical waves, from 18N16W 16N33W 12N60W southward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N87W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the east of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the Florida Keys, and from 26N northward from 90W westward. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along 92W/94W, from 22N southward into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward from 90W westward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are along the coast of Mexico from 26N southward from 94W westward. Other broken multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 26N southward from 88W westward. A surface ridge passes across the NW Bahamas, to a 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 27N88W, and it continues to the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds cover the NE part of the area. The sea heights are in the range of 1 foot to 2 feet in the NE corner of the area, and in the range of 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. The current surface ridge will prevail across the area through early next week. The ridge will support moderate to fresh SE winds in the west-central and NW Gulf. A nocturnal trough moving off the Yucatan peninsula will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche each night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N73W in the Atlantic Ocean. A trough extends from the 23N73W cyclonic center to 14N76W in the Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward between 63W and 84W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 15N northward between the Mona Passage and 83W. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 73W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N southward from 80W westward, in the coastal plains/coastal waters from Panama to Costa Rica to Nicaragua. High pressure, that is to the north of the area, will support fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia tonight and Sunday night. It is possible that sustained wind speeds may reach gale force along the coast of Colombia on Sunday night. One tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean Sea. The next tropical wave will enter the Caribbean Sea on Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N73W. A trough extends from the 23N73W cyclonic center to 14N76W in the Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward between 63W and 84W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from the Greater Antilles northward elsewhere from 60W westward. Rainshowers that are associated with a 62W/63W tropical wave are from 18N to 23N between 60W and 65W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 36N49W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward between 40W and 58W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 28N northward between 44W and 57W. A surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that is near 35N30W, through 32N42W, to 27N56W 27N73W, across the south Florida peninsula, to a Gulf of Mexico 1020 mb high pressure center that is near 25N87W. The current surface ridge will remain in place during the next several days. The ridge will help to maintain gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of 22N, and mainly moderate easterly winds will prevail S of 22N. This scenario will support fresh to locally strong winds along the N coast of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage during the evening and nighttime hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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STORM INVESTIGATION
055 ABNT20 KNHC 111725 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 11 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some slight development of this disturbance is possible during the next day or two while it remains nearly stationary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form over the central Atlantic in a few days. After it forms, the low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while it meanders over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Friday, August 10, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 10, 2018... 0337 PM EDT
National Hurricane Center
276 AXNT20 KNHC 101731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 131 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W S of 20N. The position is in line with the long-loop satellite imagery and the model diagnostics. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 04N to 17N between 20W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W S of 12N, moving W 15 knots. This is a low amplitude and low latitude wave. Any nearby precipitation is probably more related to the monsoon trough/ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W S of 19N, moving W 15 to 20 knots. A well-defined inverted V surface pattern is apparent in satellite imagery. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 14N to 18N between 57W and 63W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea from 16N southward between 60W and 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Mauritania near 18N16W to 12N30W to 07N41W. The ITCZ is along 07N45W 05N52W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 06N to 11N between 50W and 54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N to 10N between 33W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, except for the SW corner of the area. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 26N85W in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W. Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N southward between 90W and land. A weakening upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N85W. The cyclonic center was comparatively much more well- defined 24 hours ago. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the north of the line from 27N81W in Florida, to 28N88W in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of the Florida Panhandle, to 28N96W off the coast of Texas. A surface ridge will prevail across the area through early next week. The ridge will support moderate to fresh SE winds in the western and central Gulf of Mexico. A nocturnal trough moving off the Yucatan peninsula will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche each night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from a 23N68W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center, across Hispaniola, to 15N71W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward between 63W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea, in parts of Hispaniola, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward between 60W and 76W. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible from 13N southward from 76W westward. High pressure, that is to the north of the area, will support fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through early next week. One tropical wave, moving into the eastern Caribbean Sea today, will reach the central Caribbean Sea late on Saturday, and then pass to the west of the region on Tuesday. A second tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday. The winds will approach gale force on Sunday night and Monday morning along the coast of Colombia as the pressure gradient tightens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface cyclonic wind flow is from 30N northward between Bermuda and the U.S.A. A frontal boundary is to the north of the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between Bermuda and the U.S.A. An upper level trough extends from a 33N50W cyclonic circulation center to 28N55W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward between 44W and 63W. A surface ridge passes through 32N39W to 30N46W 27N63W, beyond Lake Okeechobee in south Florida. The current 32N39W-30N46W-27N63W-to-Lake Okeechobee surface ridge will shift southward today, ahead of a surface trough that is forecast to move off the southeast coast of the U.S.A. on Saturday. The ridge then will move N to 28N through early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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STORM INVESTIGATIONS
396 ABNT20 KNHC 101743 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Strong upper-level winds are likely to limit development of this system for the next day or two, but some gradual development is possible after that time while the system moves slowly westward through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form over the central Atlantic in a few days. The low could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics while moving slowly northeastward for couple of days thereafter. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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The tropics remains about the same but there are two areas
being monitored now. One of them is an area of showers and storms
over the Central Atlantic and a mid-to upper level swirl of low pressure
over the north Atlantic. Development of the Central Atlantic system
if any should be short lived and also with the N. Atlantic system...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 10, 2018... 1017 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center
077 AXNT20 KNHC 101204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W S of 20N, moving W 10 to 15 knots. This wave is associated with a 700 mb trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are possible from 04N to 17N between 20W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W S of 12N, moving W 15 knots. This is a low amplitue and low latitude wave. Any nearby precipitation is probably more related to the monsoon trough/ITCZ. An E Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/61W S of 19N, moving W 15 to 20 knots. A well-defined inverted V surface pattern is apparent in satellite imagery. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 180 nm on either side of the line that runs from 21N56W 16N59W 10N65W, from the Atlantic Ocean to the coast of Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 17N16W to 10N30W to 07N42W. The ITCZ is along 06N45W 03N51W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 06N to 10N between 35W and 43W, and from 08N to 11N between 48W and 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W. 10 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the E Gulf. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 17N93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the trough axis An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N84W, over the SE Gulf. Scattered showers remain over S Florida. Another upper level cyclonic circulation center is over Mexico near 20N101W. Upper level diffluence is over the Bay of Campeche enhancing convection. A surface ridge will prevail across the area through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the western and central Gulf. A nocturnal trough moving off the Yucatan peninsula will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche each night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. Scattered showers remain over Hispaniola. More scattered showers are over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador. The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough extends over Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia along 09N. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 75W-86W. The base of an upper level low is over the NE Caribbean enhancing showers. A large upper level high is centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 17N86W. Anticyclonic upper level winds are W of 75W. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean through early next week. A tropical wave moving over the Lesser Antilles will reach the central Caribbean Sat night, and pass W of the region Tue. Another tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean on Mon. Winds will approach gale force Sun night and Mon morning along the coast of Colombia as the pressure gradient tightens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A small area of scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 29N-32N between 72W-75W due to the southern extent of a surface trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is under high pressure ridging from a 1030 mb high centered over the E Atlantic near 38N23W to the W Atlantic near 25N63W. An upper level low is centered N of the Leeward Islands near 23N67W. Elsewhere, the base of an upper level low is over the central Atlantic N of 27N between 45W-60W enhancing showers. Ridging along 26N will shift southward today ahead of a trough moving off the southeast coast of the U.S. through Fri. The ridge will then move N to 28N through early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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NEW STORM INVEST
808 ABNT20 KNHC 101151 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some gradual development while the system moves slowly west over the next few days. By the middle of next week, stronger upper-level winds could limit the chance for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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There is a new storm investigation in the Central Atlantic. Same
strong wave I had circled on the website and mentioned in previous
post on blog. Models suggest some development, but they are
suggest that it will weaken and dissipate before reaching the
east Caribbean. Elsewhere the tropics are quiet...RTW
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