970 WTNT35 KNHC 162031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 ...ERNESTO BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WHILE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.0N 41.0W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 41.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) A faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Although Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Friday, some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Little change is expected late Friday through Saturday before the post-tropical cyclone merges with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown970 WTNT35 KNHC 162031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 ...ERNESTO BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WHILE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.0N 41.0W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 41.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) A faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Although Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Friday, some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Little change is expected late Friday through Saturday before the post-tropical cyclone merges with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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571 ABNT20 KNHC 161737 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Ernesto located several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 700 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is associated with a tropical wave. Some development of this system is possible over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph toward the Windward Islands. By late Saturday, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for additional development while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday and Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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INVEST 99L HAS NOW A LOW 20% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 48 HRS AND
A LOW 20% CHANCE WITHIN 5-DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST
A WEAK AND SHORT LIVED SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS THE EAST CARIBBEAN. THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF 99L...RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
105 AXNT20 KNHC 161803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 16/1500 UTC is near 42.0N 43.2W, or 510 nmi to the ESE of Cape Race in Newfoundland. Ernesto is moving NE at 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 39N to 46N between 39W and 44W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 06N-17N along 23W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a moderate deep layer wind shear environment, and CIRA LPW imagery shows dry air affecting the wave. These two factors are contributing to the lack of convection at this time. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 04N-16N along 49W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a low deep layer wind shear environment, and CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant low level moisture associated with it. These factors along with upper level diffluence support scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms from 07N-18N between 46W-60W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 09N-18N along 65W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a moderate to strong deep layer wind shear environment. GOES-16 water vapor imagery at the lower levels show very dry air over this region of the Caribbean. There is no convection associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is in the Yucatan Peninsula S of 21N with axis along 89W, moving W at 10-15 kt. GOES-16 water vapor imagery at the lower levels shows very dry air over this region, which in part is hindering convection at the time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W to 09N29W. The ITCZ begins near 09N29W and continues to 10N36W to 11N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N-14N E of 18W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 27W-37W. For more information about convection, see the tropical waves section. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The Bermuda high extends a ridge axis SW across Florida and large portions of the Gulf to 96W, and weak winds in the range of 5-10 kt prevail in the region. Inflow of shallow moisture from the Caribbean by southeasterly wind along with a middle level inverted trough in the E basin support scattered showers and tstms N of 24N E of 90W. Winds in this region may be slightly higher in the range of 15-20 kt enhanced by the convection. Otherwise, a surface trough is in the W Bay of Campeche supporting scattered heavy showers and tstms within 75 nm of the coast of Vera Cruz. Surface ridging will prevail across the basin through early next week. Showers over the NE basin are forecast to continue through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant shallow moisture across most of the Caribbean. In the western basin, diffluent flow aloft supports a broad area of scattered showers and tstms from 11N-18N W of 76W. A tropical wave is moving across the E basin, however both Saharan Air Layer dry air and strong deep layer wind shear are suppressing the development of convection at the time. Otherwise, surface ridging extending from the Atlc continues to support fresh to near gale force winds in the south-central Caribbean that is forecast to continue the next two days...strongest winds will be along the coast of Colombia. A tropical wave within 700 nm SE of the Lesser Antilles will move across the Islands Sat morning along with showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda high and the Azores high covers most of the Atlc ocean mainly supporting fair weather. A weakness in the ridge is analyzed as a 1019 mb low centered near 32N55W from which a surface trough extends SW to 24N63W. Scattered showers and tstms are within 150 nm ahead of the low and trough N of 27N. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is SE of Lesser Antilles associated with a tropical wave. Some development of this system is possible over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward toward the Windward Islands. By late Saturday, unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for additional development while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday and Saturday. For further information associated with the tropical waves, see section above. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos/Hagen
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168 WTNT35 KNHC 161451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 ...ERNESTO HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.0N 43.2W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 43.2 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A significantly faster northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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TROPICAL OUTLOOK:
666 AXNT20 KNHC 161205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto at 16/0900 UTC is near 40.8N 44.1W, or 975 km to the SE of Cape Race in Newfoundland. Ernesto is moving NNE at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 38N to 43N between 40W and 45W. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 21W, from 04N-20N. There is no convection associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is along 48W, from 03N-18N. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-17N between 47W-58W. A tropical wave is along 61W, from 09N-21N. There is no convection associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is along 89W S of 22N. This wave stretches into the eastern Pacific Ocean. There is no convection associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 12N16W to 08N30W. The ITCZ begins near 08N30W and continues to 07N40W to 09N47W then resumes near 08N49W to 07N57W. For convection information see the tropical waves section. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level low is centered SE of Louisiana supporting isolated rainshowers in the NE Gulf. Middle level diffluent flow support scattered showers and tstms in the SE basin. A surface ridge that extends westward from the Atlantic Ocean into the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue across the region into early next week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night, accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough. The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N from 75W in Colombia beyond 84W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 15N southward from 72W westward, in an area of middle level to lower level cyclonic wind flow. A surface ridge, that is across the western Atlantic Ocean, will maintain fresh to occasionally strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea into early next week. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N44W, in the central Atlantic Ocean, to 27N47W, to an Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center that is near 22N60W, to a cyclonic circulation center that is along the coast of the Dominican Republic near 19N69W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward between 60W and the Windward Passage, and it spans the Atlantic Ocean within 240 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N44W 27N50W 22N60W, to the northern coast of Puerto Rico along 66W/67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A surface trough extends from a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 33N57W, through 30N58W, to 25N64W. An upper level trough extends from an Andros Island cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is in northern Belize, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow with the trough. Surface high pressure will continue across the area through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MF/NR
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ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
EXTRA-TROPICAL. INVEST 99L MOVING CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEAK DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...RTW
STILL WORKING WITH THE SITE PROVIDER TO SEE WHY I CAN'T CONNECT TO
THEIR SERVER SO I CAN EDIT AND PUBLISH RTW WEBSITE. I WILL KEEP YOU
POSTED!... RTW
951 WTNT35 KNHC 152035 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 ...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 45.7W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 45.7 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast tonight, and a faster northeastward motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. The system is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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TROPICAL OUTLOOK
956 AXNT20 KNHC 151809 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 209 PM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Subtropical Storm Ernesto is centered near 38.1N 46.0W at 15/1500 UTC or 600 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is just off the coast of W Africa along 19W, from 05N-16N, moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on either side of the wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W, from 06N-19N, moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on either side of the wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 06N-22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 15N-18N between 50W- 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W, from 08N-22N, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is repositioned along a 700 mb axis. This is now the only wave located in the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is S of W Cuba from 19N- 22N between 80W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa from near 09N13W, to 07N21W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 10N36W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave from 10N40W to 08N55W. Besides the showers mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-12N between 40W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NE upper level winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to a large upper level high centered over N Mexico near 29N106W. At the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N68W. Surface ridging extends from the high to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf from 24N-30N between 83W-90W. Elsewhere, widely scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-23N between 96W-98W. The surface ridge, extending westward from the Atlantic Ocean into the northern Gulf of Mexico will prevail across the region for the rest of the week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night, accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical waves is over the W Caribbean Sea. See above. A small upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near 25N78W producing scattered showers. Another upper level low is centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 18N86W. Upper level diffluence from this low is enhancing the convection S of W Cuba. The monsoon trough is along 09N from Costa Rica to N Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 13N between 70W-80W. A surface ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the rest of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic N of 28N and W of 75W. A large upper level high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N56W. Upper level diffluence E of this center is enhancing convection near 30N47W. At the surface, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N68W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 32N55W to 26N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-30N between 56W-61W. The tail end of another surface trough extends from 32N46W to 27N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-32N between 45W-49W. A large 1028 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 38N28W with ridging N of 23N between 15W-45W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
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Ernesto expected to weaken as it moves over cooler waters
of the north Atlantic. I am monitoring an area of showers
storms between 50°-40° West and 10° North that has a slight
chance for short term development...RTW
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE SERVER TO MY SITE PROVIDER
SEEMS TO BE TEMPORARY DOWN SO CHECK BACK LATER.
ALSO NOTE THAT I WAS UNABLE TO UPDATE RTW TRACK MAP.
BECAUSE OF SERVER PROBLEM...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
591 WTNT35 KNHC 151451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 46.0W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 46.0 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today, and a faster northeastward motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. The system is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
024 AXNT20 KNHC 151203 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... At 15/0900 UTC, the center of Subtropical Depression Five is located near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 45.6 West, about 882 nm W of the Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). The subtropical depression is moving toward the north near 4 kt, and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected today. A faster northeastward motion is forecast to occur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the subtropical depression is expected to become a subtropical storm later today. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 22N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on either side of the wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 20N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are from 15N-18N between 50W-60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 21N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of Jamaica from 18N-20N between 75W-78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over N Colombia and NW Venezuela between 07N-12N between 70W-78W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W, from 23N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 11N18W, 10N20W, and then to 10N33W. The ITCZ is along 09N36W 08N43W 07N48W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-11N between 39W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NE upper level winds are over the Gulf of Mexico due to a large upper level high centered over N Mexico near 29N106W. At the surface, a 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N70W. Surface ridging extends from the high to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is over the NE Gulf from 25N- 29N between 83W-88W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 17N-22N between 95W-98W. The surface ridge, extending westward from the Atlantic Ocean into the northern Gulf of Mexico will prevail across the region for the rest of the week. A nocturnal surface trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico each night, accompanied by a surge of fresh NE to E winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. An upper level trough passes over Andros Island in the Bahamas, to Belize in Central America. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that runs from Haiti to Cuba, and from Honduras to Guatemala to SE Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible also from 15N northward from 80W westward, and elsewhere from 70W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 100 nm to the north of the northern coast of Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 360 nm of the center in NE semicircle. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 73W in Colombia and 84W in southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Panama, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela between 07N-12N between 70W-82W. A surface ridge across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea for the rest of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is along the coast of the SE U.S.A., passing through 32N76W to Andros Island in the Bahamas, to Belize in Central America. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs through 32N70W to 28N80W along the Florida coast, from Haiti to Cuba, and from Honduras to Guatemala to SE Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible over the W Atlantic W of 73W to include the Bahamas. An upper level trough passes through 32N37W in the north central Atlantic Ocean, to 22N47W to 14N60W, just to the east of Martinique and Saint Lucia. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 480 nm to the north of the trough between 49W and 60W. A surface trough passes through 32N48W to 26N56W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 26N northward between 44W and 60W. Gentle to moderate trade winds, with a 30N surface ridge, will prevail across the region for the rest of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
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ERNESTO IS NOT A THREAT LAND AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE
THE TROPICS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET FOR NOW...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
469 AXNT20 KNHC 141759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A low pressure system centered near 37N47W is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms east of the center. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move NE over colder waters Thursday and Friday. There is medium potential for this low to become a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 08N to 20N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered rain showers are in the monsoon trough area from 07N to 10N between 26W and 33W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 08N to 21N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the monsoon trough area from 07N to 09N between 46W and 55W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 10N to 22N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of N Hispaniola from 18N to 22N between 68W and 72W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 10N to 22N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the monsoon trough south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 10N30W to 09N42W. The ITCZ continues from 09N42W to 08N450W to the coast of South America near 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 37W and 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation is over southern Mexico near 18N100W. Isolated showers are over the area. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and west of 90W. A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation centered near 28N94W spans the rest of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain showers are over the NE Gulf from 26N to 31N between 82W and 87W. On the surface a surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 31N86W to 28N90W. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 20N95W to 17N94W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis. A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle of the week, allowing the winds to diminish. A surface ridge will support light to moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of the basin through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the coast of N Cuba near 23N78W. Upper level diffluence is over Hispaniola enhancing convection. Another upper level cyclonic circulation is over the NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Upper level diffluence is over Honduras and Nicaragua enhancing convection. The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 74W and 84W, to include N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Surface high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through tonight. Winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, have begun to subside, and continue during the middle of the week as western Atlantic Ocean high pressure slowly weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough is off the coast of N Florida. Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic N of the N Bahamas and W of 77W. A large upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N59W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is enhancing convection near 29N50W. A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center near 30N67W to N Florida. The tail end of a surface trough extends from 32N50W to 26N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Another 1025 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 38N25W producing fair weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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STORM INVEST 98L
179 ABNT20 KNHC 141725 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical low appears to be forming to the east of the larger complex low pressure system centered several hundred miles south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. This new low could acquire some subtropical characteristics by Wednesday. However, after that time the low should be moving northeastward over colder waters and be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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692 AXNT20 KNHC 141207 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 807 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A low pressure system centered near 37N47W is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms east of the center. Environmental conditions may become conducive for some development by Wednesday. The system is forecast to move NE over colder waters Thursday and Friday. There is medium potential for this low to become a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W, from 08N to 20N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered rain showers are in the monsoon trough area from 07N to 10N between 26W and 32W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 08N to 21N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the monsoon trough area from 07N to 09N between 47W and 54W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 10N to 22N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of N Hispaniola from 18N to 21N between 67W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 10N to 22N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the monsoon trough south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W to 09N20W to 10N40W. The ITCZ continues from 10N40W to 08N450W to the coast of South America near 07N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 36W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation is over southern Mexico near 18N100W. Isolated showers are over the area. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico south of 24N and west of 90W. A broad upper level anticyclonic circulation centered near 28N94W spans the rest of the area. Widely scattered moderate rain showers are over the NE Gulf from 26N to 31N between 82W and 87W. On the surface a surface trough is over the NE Gulf from 31N85W to 26N88W. Another surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 24N90W to 18N93W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis. A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle of the week, allowing the winds to diminish. A surface ridge will support light to moderate E to SE winds across the remainder of the basin through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation is along the coast of N Cuba near 23N78W. Upper level diffluence is over Hispaniola enhancing convection. Another upper level cyclonic circulation is over the NW Caribbean near 19N85W. Upper level diffluence is over Honduras and Nicaragua enhancing convection. The monsoon trough is along 09N between 73W and 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 74W and 83W, to include N Colombia and Panama. Surface high pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through today. Winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, have begun to subside, and continue during the middle of the week as western Atlantic Ocean high pressure slowly weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow from an upper level trough covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and Hispaniola northward and west of 70W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Upper level cyclonic wind flow associated with a trough covers the Atlantic from 22N northward between 35W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers cover the Atlantic Ocean north of 28N between 45W and 56W. A low pressure center and a trailing surface trough are north of the area along 50W. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center near 30N66W. The tail end of a surface trough extends from 32N50W to 27N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Another 1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N29W producing fair weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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190 AXNT20 KNHC 131753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 20N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the monsoon trough area, from 07N to 10N between 26W and 34W. It is possible that any precipitation may be more related to the monsoon trough than to just the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W/46W from 21N southward, moving west 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 40W and 44W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 21N southward. It is possible that any precipitation may be more related to the ITCZ than to just the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 22N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are between Jamaica and SE Cuba. It is possible that this precipitation may be more related to the current upper level cyclonic wind flow than to just the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W, to 10N24W 09N29W and 10N41W. The ITCZ is along 08N46W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 09N to 11N between 60W and 62W, near Venezuela and Trinidad. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N to 12N between 58W and 64W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 11N between 46W and 56W. Other isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 44W eastward. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for Trinidad, that is listed for the period that ended at 13/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.81. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 24N southward from 90W westward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the area. A surface trough extends from the Florida Big Bend to 25N85W in the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N to 29N between Florida and 91W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N northward from 92W eastward. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 27N89W. A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will accompany this trough. The trough will become weaker by the middle of the week, and it will allow the wind speeds to subside. A surface ridge generally will support light to moderate E to SE winds in the remainder of the basin through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow across the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from the Windward Passage westward, including to 90W in the Yucatan Peninsula and in Central America. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 15N northward between 75W and 90W. The areas of the comparatively greatest concentration of precipitation are: from the coast of Honduras to 20N in the Yucatan Peninsula between 84W and 90W, and between Jamaica and SE Cuba. Broken low level clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, cover the areas that are from 17N to 21N between 58W and the Windward Passage, and from 12N to 18N between 65W and 74W. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 73W in Colombia and 85W in Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 45 nm on either side of the line that runs from 09N80W at the coast of Panama, to 12N85W in south central Nicaragua. Surface high pressure, that is to the north of the area, will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. Earlier strong to minimal gale force winds, that were being experienced along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, have begun to subside. The wind speeds and the sea heights in the Caribbean Sea will subside during the middle of the week, as the western Atlantic Ocean high pressure center gradually weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an upper level trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and Hispaniola northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward between 35W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward between 45W and 56W. A low pressure center and a surface trough are to the north of the area, along 50W. A surface ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 33N34W, to 28N50W, to a second 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 30N63W, to the NW Bahamas. The surface ridge will remain in place during the next several days. This ridge will help to maintain fresh to locally strong winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage, during the evening and nighttime hours. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow will continue N of 23N, while mainly moderate easterly wind flow will prevail S of 23N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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STORM INVESTIGATION
049 ABNT20 KNHC 131713 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad non-tropical area of low pressure located a little more than 600 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Some development could occur within this complex low pressure area while it moves toward the northeast during the next 2 to 3 days before it reaches the colder waters of the North Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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617 AXNT20 KNHC 131204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W, from 20N southward, moving west 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the monsoon trough area. It is possible that any precipitation may be more related to the monsoon trough than to just the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 21N southward, moving west 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in model diagnostics and 700 mb streamline analysis, and TPW imagery shows moderate moisture in its vicinity. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 40W and 43W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W from 21N southward, moving west 15-20 kt. This wave is also depicted in model diagnostics. It is possible that any precipitation may be more related to the monsoon trough than to just the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W from 22N southward, moving west 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are between Jamaica and SE Cuba. It is possible that this precipitation may be more related to the current upper level cyclonic wind flow than to just the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of NW Mauritania near 21N17W, to 16N21W 10N26W and 10N40W. The ITCZ is along 08N between 45W and 55W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N to 11N between land and 22W, and from 04N to 10N between 26W and 38W, and from 07N to 11N between 47W and 63W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 28N88W. With this, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the area. To the southwest, a surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche from 23N93W to 19N92W. A nocturnal trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf each night. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will accompany this trough. It will become weaker by mid-week. High pressure, elsewhere, generally will support light to moderate E to SE winds in the remainder of the basin through Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is centered near 21N80W. This feature is enhancing convection across the northwest Caribbean waters mainly north of 18W and west of 79W, including western Cuba. A tropical wave is along 72W. The monsoon trough extends along 10N between 76W- 82W. Scattered showers are in Panama and Costa Rica. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected along the coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela through early this morning. Winds and seas in the Caribbean Sea will subside during mid-week as the western Atlantic Ocean high pressure weakens slightly. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low is centered in the northwestern Caribbean Sea near 21N80W. This feature is also enhancing convection across the western Atlantic Ocean, mainly across the Bahamas. Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 31N61W and another 1026 mb high near 34N35W. The surface ridge will remain in place during the next several days. This ridge will help to maintain fresh to locally strong winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage, during the evening and nighttime hours. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow will continue N of 23N, while mainly moderate easterly wind flow will prevail S of 23N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ era/mt
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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STORM INVESTIGATION
112 ABNT20 KNHC 131134 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical broad area of low pressure is located a little more than 600 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Conditions could become somewhat favorable for subtropical or tropical development during the next 2 or 3 days, and if formation occurs, the system should move toward the northeast over the north Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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The tropics reamin quiet just that one swirl with a low chance
for development within the next few days... RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
