Friday, August 24, 2018

HURRICANE LANE UPDATE AUG 24, 2018...0800 AM HST

WTPA32 PHFO 241807
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
800 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
 
...HURRICANE LANE LURKING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO SOME AREAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 158.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...274 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should already be complete.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was
estimated by radar and satellite to be near latitude 18.8 North,
longitude 158.0 West. Lane is moving toward the north near 2 mph (3
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight. A turn toward the west is anticipated on Saturday, with an
increase in forward speed. On the latest forecast track, the center
of Lane will move dangerously close to portions of the central
Hawaiian islands later today and tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast later today and
tonight, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it
approaches the islands. Further weakening is expected on Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

A weather station near Waimea on the Big Island recently reported
sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with gusts to 51 mph (82 km/h). 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big
Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely persist
today. Hurricane conditions are expected over some areas of Maui
County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai starting tonight or Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts up to 40
inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over 30
inches of rain has already fallen at a couple locations on the
windward side of the Big Island.
 
SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells
will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed
shorelines, particularly today through Saturday. In addition, a
prolonged period of extreme surf will also likely lead to
significant coastal erosion.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane



5day Wind Field Radius
Present Wind field Radius
Radar below are from different islands


Satellite and radar combined
Satellite no radar overlay
Water vapor satellite
Latest guidance models
Late or previous model run
GFS Ensemble
 Video looping through different overlays and animation combined

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 24, 2018...0345 PM EDT

Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
249 
AXNT20 KNHC 241706
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 PM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa along 18W from 04N- 
20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment 
and has 700 mb support. Scattered showers are from 11N-21N between
16W-26W. 



A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N-
17N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a very
dry and stable environment which is inhibiting significant 
convection at this time. Scattered showers are noted where the 
wave meets the monsoon trough along and south of 10N. 

An E Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W from 02N- 
20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also embedded 
within a very dry and stable environment caused by Saharan Air 
Layer that is spreading westward. Scattered moderate convection 
is near Trinidad from 09N-11N between 60W-64W.

A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 82W south of 20N 
to 03N81W. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is over the southern portion of the 
wave from 08N-13N between 75W-84W. 

A tropical wave has its axis along 96W south of 20N, moving 
westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are over the Bay of 
Campeche S of 20N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N16W to 
08N26W to 09N39W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave from 
07N43W to 04N51W. A 1012 mb low is centered on the monsoon trough 
near 09N39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
low center. Isolated moderate convection is along the monsoon
trough from 03N-06N between 10W-40W. Scattered showers are along
the ITCZ from 02N-06N between 40W-48W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends across N Florida from 30N80W
to 28N83W. Scattered showers are over the Florida Peninsula. An 
approaching tropical wave is advecting scattered showers oveer W 
Cuba and the Straits of Florida. The Bay of Campeche has similar 
showers due to another tropical wave. The remainder of the Gulf 
has fair weather. The pressure gradient across the Gulf supports 
light winds throughout, with a wind shift along the frontal 
system. In the upper levels, an upper level high centered over 
southern Texas near 30N98W is producing NE upper level winds over
the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect the front to fully 
dissipate during the next six hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. An upper-level low is centered near the
Gulf of Honduras at 17N85W. The low is enhancing scattered 
showers near the upper-low center, and is enhancing convection
over the SW Caribbean with upper level diffluence. 

Expect strong nocturnal pulses of wind through the upcoming 
weekend along the coast of Colombia and Venezuela with seas 
building to 9 ft. A new tropical wave will reach 55W on Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. A stationary front is off the coast of
northern Florida from 32N76W to 30N80W. Scattered moderate 
convection is north of 26N and west of 70W. An upper level low 
is centeredE of the Bahamas near 24N71W enhancing convection. A 
surface trough extends over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 
24N40W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm of the trough. 
Saharan dust and associated dry air is noted mainly east of 60W 
on GOES-16 GEO color dust imagery. The dust is suppressing 
convection across most of the tropical Atlantic waters from 15N-
30N. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
----------------------------------------------------------------
Tropics remain quiet!  RTW 


HURRICANE LANE STILL A SERIOUS FLOOD PROBLEM FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AUG 24, 2018

HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY
WTPA32 PHFO 241452
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
 
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 158.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 158.0 West. Lane is moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is
anticipated on Saturday, with an increase in forward speed. On the
latest forecast track, the center of Lane will move dangerously
close to portions of the central Hawaiian islands later today and
tonight. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lane is now category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional weakening is forecast later
today and tonight, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous
hurricane as it approaches the islands. Further weakening is
expected on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big
Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely persist
today. Hurricane conditions are expected over some areas of Maui
County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai starting tonight or Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts up to 40
inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over 30
inches of rain has already fallen at a couple locations on the
windward side of the Big Island.
 
SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will
severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells
will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed
shorelines, particularly today through Saturday. In addition, a
prolonged period of extreme surf will also likely lead to
significant coastal erosion.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane 
 











 


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 24, 2018... 1114 AM EDT

Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
311 
AXNT20 KNHC 241204
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of W Africa along 16W from
04N-20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist
environment and has 700 mb support. Scattered showers are from
11N-21N between 14W-24W.  

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W from 02N-
17N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a very
dry and stable environment which is inhibiting significant 
convection at this time. Scattered showers are noted where the 
wave meets the monsoon trough along and south of 10N. 

An E Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending along 61W 
from 02N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also 
embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by 
Saharan Air Layer that is spreading westward across the Atlantic. 
Scattered moderate convection is near Trinidad from 09N-11N
between 60W-64W.

A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W south of 20N 
to 03N79W. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is over the southern portion of the
wave from 08N-13N between 75W-84W. 

A tropical wave has its axis along 94W south of 20N, moving 
westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are over the Bay of 
Campeche S of 20N.  

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to 
08N26W to 07N39W. The ITCZ beginsW of a tropical wave from 07N41W
to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between
10W-32W. Scattered showers are from 02N-08N between 38W-45W. 


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends across N Florida from 30N80W
to 28N83W. A pre- frontal trough extends over central Florida and
the E Gulf of Mexico from 27N80W to 26N86W. Scattered showers are
over the Florida Peninsula. An approaching tropical wave is
advecting scattered showers oveer W Cuba and the Straits of
Florida. The Bay of Campeche has similar showers due to another
tropical wave. The remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. The 
pressure gradient across the Gulf supports light winds throughout,
with a wind shift along the frontal system. In the upper levels, 
an upper level high centered over southern Texas is producing NE 
upper level winds over the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect 
the front to fully dissipate during the next 12 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. An upper-level low is centered near the
Cayman Islands at 18N82W. The low is enhancing scattered 
showers near the upper-low center, together with a tropical wave 
along 80W. 

Expect strong nocturnal pulses of wind through the upcoming 
weekend along the coast of Colombia and Venezuela with seas 
building to 9 ft. The next tropical wave will enter the eastern
portion of the basin during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. A stationary front is off the coast of
northern Florida from 32N76W to 30N80W. Scattered moderate 
convection is north of 28N and west of 76W. To the east, scattered
showers are over the west Atlantic from 25N-30N between 67W-74W 
due to an upper-level low centered near 25N72W. A surface trough 
extends over the central Atlantic from 24N57W to 21N60W. Scattered
showers are noted along the trough. Another trough extends from 
32N34W to 26N37W. Saharan dust and associated dry air, although 
not as dense as in previous days, is noted mainly east of 60W on 
GOES-16 GEO color dust imagery. The dust is keeping convection 
limited to non-existent across most of the Atlantic waters.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Monday!  The 
storm invest off the African coast which is another wave with a low 
chance for development as it moves swiftly across the Atlantic.
Some models suggest maybe some development when it slows 
down as it tracks either north of the Islands or as it enters the eastern 
Caribbean by the end of this month... RTW
 
 

Thursday, August 23, 2018

MAJOR HURRICANE LANE ADVISORY AUG 23, 2018...1100 HST

WTPA32 PHFO 232043
TCPCP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 23 2018
 
...EYE OF LANE PASSES OVER NOAA BUOY 51002 AS THE DANGEROUS
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 157.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Hawaii County
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
Interests in the the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 157.5 West. Lane is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward motion
is expected to begin today. A turn toward the west is expected
Saturday and Sunday, with an increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the center of Lane will move over, or dangerously
close to portions of the main Hawaiian islands later today through
Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lane remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some weakening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, but Lane is expected to remain a
hurricane as it draws closer to the islands.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

NOAA Buoy 51002 located about 250 miles southwest of the Big Island
reported a peak wind of 107 mph (172 km/h) as the northwest eyewall
of Lane passed over. The buoy is now reporting light winds in the
eye of the hurricane.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on portions of the Big
Island today, with hurricane conditions expected in some areas by
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over
portions of Maui County later today, with hurricane conditions
expected in some areas by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on Oahu late tonight, with hurricane conditions
expected Friday into Friday night. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions are possible on Kauai on Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian
Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this
slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands
into the weekend, leading to significant and life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts in excess
of 30 inches over the Hawaiian Islands. Nearly 20 inches of rain has
already fallen on portions of the Big Island.
 
SURF: As Lane is slow-moving, large swells generated by the
hurricane  will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands over the next
couple of days. These swells will produce very large and damaging
surf along exposed west and south facing shorelines. A prolonged
period of high surf will likely lead to significant coastal erosion.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet
above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near
the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane 
 









  

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 23, 2018...0426 PM EDT

Tropical Weather Discussion by (NHC)
972 
AXNT20 KNHC 231746
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 PM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W from 
04N-20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a 
very dry and stable environment which is inhibiting convection at 
this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 52W
from 05N-20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is also 
embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by 
Saharan Air Layer outbreak of the past several days that is 
spreading westward across the central and eastern Atlantic. 
Scattered showers are noted south of 10N where the wave meets the 
ITCZ.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 20N
to north Colombia. It is moving westward at 20 kt. No significant
convection is observed within the wave at this time.

A tropical wave has its axis along 88W south of 19N, moving westward
near 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 
12N17W to 08N22W to 10N40W to 09N51W. The ITCZ axis begins at 
09N53W and continues to the coast of South America near 07N58W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 07W-
17W. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere within 180 nm either 
side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the N Gulf of Mexico from 31N80W to 29N83W. A
stationary front continues to 27N90W to 29N95W. A pre-frontal 
trough extends from N Florida near 29N82W to the NE Gulf near 
26N86W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of 
the pre-frontal trough. A 1018 mb high is located over the
northwest Gulf near 25N95W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over
the Bay of Campeche from 17N-20N between 93W-96W. The present 
pressure gradient across the Gulf supports light winds throughout,
with a windshift along the frontal system. In the upper levels, an
upper level high centered over Texas near 32N99W is producing NE 
upper level winds over the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect 
the front to become quasi-stationary until Fri and dissipate on Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. An upper level low is centered over the
Cayman Islands near 19N81W. The low is producing scattered showers
near the upper low center and is enhancing convection over the
SW Caribbean due to upper level diffluence. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 12N to
include Panama and Costa Rica. Elsewhere, scattered showers are 
over the SE Caribbean from 11N-15N between 61W-68W. 

Expect strong nocturnal pulses of winds through the upcoming weekend
along the coast of NE Colombia and W Venezuela with seas building to
9 ft. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. A cold front is off the coast of N
Florida from 32N79W to 31N80W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 27N-32N west of 75W. Scattered showers are over
the west Atlantic from 25N-29N between 65W-72W due to an upper
level low centered near 26N72W. A surface trough extends over the
central Atlantic from 27N57W to 19N58W. Scattered showers are 
within 120 nm of the trough. A 1024 mb high is analyzed near 37N51W.
Saharan dust and associated dry air, although not as dense as in 
previous days, is noted mainly east of 60W on GOES-16 GEO color 
dust imagery. The dust is keeping convection limited to non-existent
across the eastern and central Atlantic waters.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa/Hagen
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
---------------------------------------------------------------------
The Tropical Atlantic remains quiet for now!