RTW
Thursday, August 30, 2018
ACCIDENT WHILE DOING UPDATE DELAYS MY BLOG POST AND WEBSITE PUBLISH
RTW
SPECIAL STATEMENT FROM NHC AUG 30, 2018
Special Message from NHC Issued 30 Aug 2018 14:08 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Wednesday, August 29, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 29, 2018...0306 PM EDT
Tropical Weather Outlook by NHC
761 AXNT20 KNHC 291750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 15N southward. A 1013 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 09N. scattered moderate to widely scattered strong rainshowers are from 08N to 13N between Africa and 29W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N to 17N between Africa and 31W. An Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 21N58W 16N60W 13N62W 08N62W, ending in Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 13N to 20N between 58W and Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between 54W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W from 22N in the Yucatan Channel, beyond Central America, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 18N northward from the Windward Passage westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 16N17W, to 11N25W, to the 1013 mb low pressure center that is along the 31W/32W tropical wave, 08N38W. The ITCZ continues from 08N38W to 08N49W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 10N between 28W and 40W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward, mainly between 40W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from central Louisiana, to the upper Texas Gulf coast, to inland south central Texas. Scattered moderate to isolated/widely scattered strong rainshowers are to the north of the line from 25N90W to 28N96W from 90W westward. The upper level inverted trough/cyclonic circulation center from 24 hours ago has moved into Mexico, and now it is along 100W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the west of the line that runs from 26N95W to 19N92W. Weak upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the eastern one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 25N northward from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 22N northward in the Gulf of Mexico. A weak ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into the weekend and support gentle to moderate winds. A surface trough will develop each evening over the Yucatan Peninsula before moving W and offshore into the SW Gulf overnight. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level east-to-west oriented trough is along 15N/16N from 70W westward to Central America. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, spans the Caribbean Sea between 60W and 70W. The trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, across Puerto Rico to Venezuela. isolated moderate rainshowers cover the rest of that part of the Caribbean Sea that is between 60W and 70W. A tropical wave is in the easternmost part of the Caribbean Sea, with its associated precipitation. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 09N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. An upper level trough extends from southern Nicaragua to Panama. scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 11N southward from 80W and 83W. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea today, before diminishing from tonight through Saturday. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of cyclonic wind flow. An upper level trough extends from a 32N40W cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 28N46W, to a third 24N63W cyclonic circulation center, toward the Windward Passage. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N38W to 25N47W to 23N60W to the Mona Passage. Surface high pressure will remain centered SW of Bermuda through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds will be S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds will be N of 24N. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong just N of Hispaniola, including the approach to the Windward Passage, during the evening and overnight hours through Sunday. A tropical wave moving into the NE Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean today, will produce active weather as it moves westward across the Lesser Antilles and Bahamas through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Storm Investigation
011 ABNT20 KNHC 291743 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A vigorous low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday. Conditions appears to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands and the adjacent Atlantic. This system is expected to bring rains and gusty winds to those islands in two or three days, and interests in that region should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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African wave has a higher chance for tropical formation but should
stay out over the North Atlantic waters. The system that is forecast
to develop over the Bahamas not very many models other the than the
ECMWF is suggesting development and a track across Florida. I will
continue to monitor but development is still questionable.
Are you Hurricane Ready? RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 29, 2018... 1033 AM EDT
Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
687 AXNT20 KNHC 291205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis along 32W between 03N-14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A 1012 mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 08N32W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 29W-36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends it axis from 20N57W to 07N61W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the northern portion of the wave from 13N-20N between 54W-64W, over the Leeward Islands. A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean with axis along 86W between 03N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean and Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 15N17W to 09N26W to a 1012 mb low near 08N32W to 08N39W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N45W to 08N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is alongthe coast of W Africa from 08N-14N. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 42W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low is in the NE corner of Mexico near 26N100W. Cyclonic flow covers Texas and N Mexico and the W Gulf of Mexico N of 20N and W of 94W. Isolated moderate convection is over the area. Another small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf near 30N88W. Scattered showers are over the E Gulf, Florida, and W Cuba. At the surface, a ridge prevails across the basin along 30N with 10 kt SE return flow. A surface trough will develop each night over the Yucatan Peninsula, then push offshore into the Bay of Campeche with convection. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough. A surface ridge will continue to dominate the reminder of the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean, and another tropical wave has entered the E Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is centered over Jamaica near 18N77W. This feature is producing isolated moderate convection over Jamaica and E Cuba. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 10N to include N Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Fresh to strong winds will develop each night in the south central Caribbean Sea just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave with an embedded low is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 26N60W. Scattered showers are within 300 nm of the center. On the surface, a trough is over the W Atlantic from 30N80W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm of the trough. A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 29N67W. To the east, another 1025 mb high is centered near 37N22W. Surface ridging will prevail through the forecast period. Expect moderate to fresh winds S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh to strong just N of Hispaniola at night through the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Storm Investigation
107 ABNT20 KNHC 291129 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure area is forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in association with a tropical wave that is expected to move off the west coast of Africa late Thursday or early Friday. Additional development is anticipated, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in those islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Still monitoring the African coast for waves with potential for
development. Also off east of Florida since the EURO model still
suggesting development over the Bahamas...RTW
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 28, 2018... 0357 PM EDT
Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
194 AXNT20 KNHC 281655 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1255 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 20N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 05N to 19N between Africa and 23W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 20N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N to 12N between 26W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 04N to 13N between 20W and 30W. Rainshowers are possible in the remainder of the area from 19N southward from 44W eastward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 20N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 43W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W from 21N southward, through the Mona Passage/eastern sections of the Dominican Republic to Venezuela. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 27N between 60W and 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N to 26N between 60W and 70W. A tropical wave is along 88W/89W from 22N southward, from the Yucatan Peninsula through Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N24W, 08N32W, and 09N41W. The ITCZ is not discernible. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are cover the area from 04N to 13N between 20W and 30W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the rest of the area from 19N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level inverted trough is in the N central part of the Gulf of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the NE corner of the area. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 90W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NE corner of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers Texas and Mexico and the coastal waters from 20N northward from 92W westward. isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Gulf waters from 90W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 28/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.21 in Veracruz in Mexico. A surface trough will develop each evening in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf of Mexico. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough. A surface ridge will dominate the rest of the Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 150 nm to the south of Cuba, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N northward from 70W westward. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along 09N from 74W in Colombia beyond southern Costa Rica. An upper level trough extends from southern Nicaragua to Panama. scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N southward from 81W westward to land. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday before diminishing. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an inverted trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward. isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of cyclonic wind flow. An upper level trough extends from a 33N32W cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 28N44W. The trough continues to a third upper level cyclonic circulation center that is near 23N63W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N30W to 24N50W to 18N61W. Surface high pressure will prevail through the forecast period. Expect moderate to fresh winds S of 24N, and gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. The wind speeds will pulse to fresh to strong just N of Hispaniola at night through Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Storm Investigation
742 ABNT20 KNHC 281718 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Thursday. Some development of this system is possible over the weekend while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Monitoring the coast of Africa, the Central Atlantic and the
Bahamas over the weekend for tropical cyclone formation...RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
HEADS UP!
IF YOU HAVE A TOOL USE IT!
When going to http://ralphstropicalweather.com
website just don't look at the tropical weather outlook map! Scroll
down to other satellite map where I post investigations formation
probabilities.
You may miss out on an important investigation that could be of interest to you in the near future.
If you see at top (updated) above one of the buttons, that means I have posted new graphic map at (Ralph's Storm Track Maps).
Remember I do this to be your eyes. What's the purpose of having a tool at your disposition and not use it.
You may miss out on an important investigation that could be of interest to you in the near future.
If you see at top (updated) above one of the buttons, that means I have posted new graphic map at (Ralph's Storm Track Maps).
Remember I do this to be your eyes. What's the purpose of having a tool at your disposition and not use it.
Don't be caught by surprise we are entering the busiest time of the
season and all it takes is one storm to turn your life up side down. Be
Hurricane Ready!! RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 28, 2018... 0950 AM EDT
Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
042 AXNT20 KNHC 281204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is along 25W/26W from 20N southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 09N. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 05N to 19N from 30W eastward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W from 20N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 19N between 48W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 21N southward, through the Mona Passage to Venezuela. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 27N between 60W and 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N to 24N between 60W and 70W. A tropical wave is along 88W/89W from 22N southward, from the Yucatan Peninsula through Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to the 1010 mb low pressure center that is along the 25W/26W tropical wave, to 09N34W and 10N40W. The ITCZ continues from 10N40W to 11N47W and 11N51W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough extends from NE Florida to 23N83W. A ridge prevails over the basin from western Florida to southern Texas. Moist conditionally unstable air across the basin is enhancing scattered showers. The strongest activity is north of 24N between 86W and 92W. An upper low centered over central Cuba is also enhancing convection over the Florida peninsula. A surface trough will develop each evening over the Yucatan Peninsula before pushing offshore into the SW Gulf. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough. Otherwise, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper low centered over central Cuba near 20N81W, along with abundant tropical moisture, is inducing scattered showers across Cuba. Convective activity will gradually shift westward as the upper low tracks moves to the W. The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough stretches across Panama to Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are south of 14N between 79W-86W. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the south- central Caribbean through Wed before diminishing. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section above for details. An upper low centered over the NW Caribbean is enhancing convection across the western Atlantic W of 77W. A surface trough is over Florida, and another trough was noted in scatterometer data from 31N43W to 28N48W. Surface high pressure will prevail through the forecast period. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mundell/al/mt
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Storm Investigation 5-day formation probability
479 ABNT20 KNHC 281121 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Thursday. Some development of this system is possible over the weekend while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Nothing for now but most of the models are suggesting development
from a strong wave that is forecast to move off the African coast
in the coming days and week. Most models suggest a re-curving
tropical cyclone over the North Atlantic. The EURO model now
suggest the same as well. Its still to early to tell, so all we can
do is monitor and be ready in case if one of the systems makes
its way further west... RTW
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/
Monday, August 27, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 27, 2018... 0300 PM EDT
Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
070 AXNT20 KNHC 271741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 141 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical is just west of the African coast with its axis along 21W from 04N-20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is embedded within the broad monsoonal trough region of W Africa. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection in the wave's vicinity between 14W-23W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W from 04N to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is surrounded by a rather stable and dry environment. Isolated showers are noted along the wave's axis from 08N-14N. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean, with axis along 62W between 05N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted by model guidance and surface observations. Scattered showers are noted within this wave mainly south of 10N affecting eastern Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W and south of 20N, moving westward at about 15 kt. The upper-level cyclonic flow prevails across the western Caribbean west of 77W enhancing convection in this area. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 14N between 79W-86W affecting Central America and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Africa near 17N17W to 10N26W to 09N49W. Aside from convective activity associated with the far eastern Atlantic tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 25W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough extends from northeastern Florida to 23N83W, At the surface, a ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high centered over northern Georgia. Very moist and unstable atmosphere is noted across the basin enhancing scattered showers. The strongest activity prevails north of 25N between 86W-92W. An upper-level low is centered over central Cuba enhancing convection across the Florida Peninsula and Keys mainly east of 82W. A surface trough will develop during the evening hours over the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico each night. This trough, in combination with Sunday's daytime heating acting on ample instability in place, will trigger off scattered moderate convection over much of the Peninsula and the eastern Bay of Campeche. A surge of moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will accompany this trough. A weak surface ridge will continue over the rest of basin, with its associated gradient supporting a mainly gentle to moderate wind flow regime. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tow tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered over central Cuba near 20N81W. This feature, along with abundant tropical moisture, is inducing scattered showers currently affecting the island and the southeast Gulf of Mexico. The activity will gradually shift from east to west as the upper low tracks further away to the W. The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough stretches eastward into the far southwestern Caribbean to the northwestern coast of Colombia. This, combined with a tropical wave along 83W, are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms are south of 14N between 79W-86W. Fresh to strong winds, and building seas to 10 feet, will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea through mid-week. The tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles will continue moving across the basin accompanied by fresh easterly winds and wave heights expected to max out around 8 ft. Another wave will enter the eastern Caribbean early on Wed, increasing the likelihood of scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the Lesser Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is centered over the northwestern Caribbean enhancing scattered moderate convection across the west Atlantic mainly west of 77W. A surface trough was noted in current observations extending over the northern Bahamas from 29N77W to 25N79W. To the east, another trough was noted in scatterometer data, extending from 27N67W to 23N69W. Moderate winds are noted with this trough between 67W-69W. A weak cyclonic surface rotation is noted between 40W-50W and north of 28N with scattered showers. A surface trough was analyzed in this area. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a three surface highs aligned along 32N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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All remains quiet for now but I will continue to monitor the coast
of Africa and the Central Atlantic into first and second week of
September for tropical cyclone formation... RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 27, 2018... 0949 AM EDT
Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
393 AXNT20 KNHC 271150 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 750 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical is just west of the African coast with its axis along 20W from 04N to 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave is embedded within the broad monsoonal trough region of W Africa. Moisture and convection within this region of the far eastern Atlantic has increased during the past few days as observed on GOES-16 imagery. The latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection just east of the wave axis to along and just inland the coast of Africa from 07N to 12N. This activity is holding together as it moves away from the African coast. Similar convection is west of the wave axis along and within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between the wave and 23W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W from 04N to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is surrounded by a rather stable and dry environment. Only isolated showers are seen within 150 nm west and within 120 nm east of the wave axis from 08N to 14N. A tropical wave that was tracked across the central Atlantic during the past few days appears to have become more defined at the surface and low-levels near 60W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The 700 mb model wind and streamline fields support a tropical wave in this general area. Scatterometer data from last night highlighted some evidence of a northeast to southeast shift in wind direction across the wave axis. Scattered showers are within 60 nm east of the wave axis from 14N to 20N. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 81W south of 20N, moving westward at about 15 kt. The upper-level flow is cyclonic north of 14N in association with an upper-level low over central Cuba. The northern portion of the wave, being the case that it is in the favorable location east of the upper- level low, is helping to trigger off scattered showers within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 18N to 20N. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 13N affecting Central America and adjacent waters between 79W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N25W to 12N38W and to just east of the tropical wave along 48W/49W. ITCZ from 6N50W to 05N53W. Aside from convective activity associated with the far eastern Atlantic tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 75 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 23W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough extends from northeastern Florida to 29N83W, and continues as a shear axis to an upper-level low at 24N93W. At the surface, a westward moving trough extends from 2991W to 23N92W. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers nearly the entire Gulf of Mexico east of 94W eastward. A second upper-level low is noted at the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. With these features in play along with a very moist and unstable atmosphere in place, scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue over much of the basin through the next couple of days. A surface trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico each night. This trough, in combination with Sunday's daytime heating acting on ample instability in place, triggered off scattered moderate isolated strong convection over much of the Yucatan Peninsula. Over the past few hours this activity has diminish some as it pushes off the west coast of the Yucatan and to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated showers remain over sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surge of moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will accompany this trough. A weak surface ridge will remain over the rest of basin, with its associated gradient supporting a mainly gentle to moderate wind flow regime. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough extends from a small upper-level low near 22N63W west-southwestward to Hispaniola, and continues to another upper-level low over east-central Cuba. A trough extends from this low southward to just south of Jamaica and to northwestern Colombia. Plenty of atmospheric instability over the western half of the Caribbean for these features to work with is bringing scattered moderate convection in clusters over the waters just south of Cuba to 19N between 81W and 85W. Isolated moderate convection is seen elsewhere north of 13N west of 77W. Instability from the upper-level low over Cuba earlier resulted in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the central and eastern sections of that island. This activity has decreased during the past few hours, but is expected to quickly re-develop today as daytime gets underway. The activity will gradually shift from east to west as the upper low tracks further away to the W. The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough stretches eastward into the far southwestern Caribbean to the northwestern coast of Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are south of 13N and west of 75W. Fresh to strong winds, and building seas to 10 feet, will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea through Wed. A tropical wave will approach the waters east of the Lesser Antilles on Tue accompanied by fresh easterly winds and wave heights expected to max out around 8 ft. The wave will enter the eastern Caribbean early on Wed, increasing the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the Lesser Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Several small surface and upper-level feature are evident across this area of the discussion domain. The tail-end of an upper-level trough extends from within 180 nm offshore the southeastern United States southwestward to NE Florida. An upper-level low moving westward is near 28N71W, with and inverted trough stretching southwestward to 25N74W and to an upper-level low over central Cuba. Another inverted trough extends from the upper low northeastward to north of the area at 32N70W. At the surface, a trough with good track history, is analyzed from near 29N75W to the central Bahamas and to just north of the coast of Cuba at 22N78W. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms moving westward over much of the central Bahamas west through the Straits of Florida and to southern Florida. The surface trough is forecast to move across the area through Mon. Gentle to moderate winds will be associated with this trough. A small upper-level low moving steadily westward is seen in water vapor imagery to be near 22N63W, with a trough extending westward to Hispaniola and to an upper-level low over east-central Cuba. This upper low is showing a surface signature identifies as a trough from 27N64W to near 22N66W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm west of the trough from 24N to 27N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere to the west of 60W. An upper-level trough stretches from an upper-level low also located well north of the area at 35N39W southwestward through 32N45W to 27.5N50W and to the upper-level low that is near 22N63W. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed from near 32N43W to 29N50W, and from near 32N50W to 29N56W to 31N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm southeast of the first trough. Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are along and within 30 to 60 nm of the second trough. Isolated showers are elsewhere to the north of 24N between 45W and 60W. Outside the above described features, surface high pressure is present across the Atlantic, with the strongest high pressure found north of 28N and east of 50W. Water vapor imagery and the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) animation reveal that atmospheric moisture is increasing over much of the basin east of 52W. East winds will pulse to fresh to strong at night just north of Hispaniola through Tue. A weak surface ridge will remain over the remainder of these waters, with its associated gradient supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds west of about 50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre/ERA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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I am keeping an eye on the wave off the African coast and the next
one that will eventually follow. Conditions may become a bit more
favorable for some development over the Central Atlantic in the near
future...RTW
Saturday, August 25, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 25, 2018...0302 PM EDT
Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
046 AXNT20 KNHC 251755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 155 PM EDT Sat Aug 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W from 20N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N to 13N between 27W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W from 19N southward. This wave was added to the 25/1200 UTC map analysis based on long loop satellite imagery and computer model diagnostics. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 14N to 24N between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 19N southward. Rainshowers are possible from 14N to 21N between 50W and 62W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W from 18N southward. This wave is moving into an area of pre-existing upper level cyclonic wind flow. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W from 20N southward, passing through Honduras and Nicaragua. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the western Caribbean Sea, with upper level cyclonic circulation centers and troughs. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the waters that are from 80W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from the Windward Passage westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N23W, 09N30W, 08N36W, and 07N39W. The ITCZ continues from 07N39W to 05N45W and 05N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 11N between 30W and 44W, and from 05N to 07N between 50W and 53W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The southernmost part of a stationary front passes through 33N77W to 31N81W near the coast of SE Georgia. A narrow NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough extends from 32N81W near the South Carolina/ Georgia border, across NE Florida, to 28N83W in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to 23N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N75W, on top of the central Bahamas. A second cyclonic circulation center is near 29N67W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the west of the line that passes through 33N70W 27N75W 22N76W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 70W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 94W eastward. A surface trough will develop during the evening hours in the Yucatan Peninsula, before pushing offshore into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico each night. A surge of moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough. A surface ridge will dominate the rest of the Gulf waters, supporting a gentle to moderate wind flow. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 23N62W cyclonic circulation center, into the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea near 18N63W and 16N70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 70W eastward. An upper level inverted trough extends from the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, across Nicaragua and Honduras, to the southern half of the coast of the eastern side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the waters that are from 80W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from the Windward Passage westward. Fresh to strong winds and building seas to 9 or 10 ft will prevail in the south-central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Tropical waves will continue to move across the basin, elsewhere, producing some convective precipitation and little impact in winds and seas. It is possible that the wind speeds and the sea heights may be higher near thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The southernmost part of a stationary front passes through 33N77W to 31N81W near the coast of SE Georgia. A narrow NE-to-SW oriented upper level trough extends from 32N81W near the South Carolina/Georgia border, across NE Florida, to 28N83W in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to 23N88W in the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N75W, on top of the central Bahamas. A second cyclonic circulation center is near 29N67W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the west of the line that passes through 33N70W 27N75W 22N76W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 70W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 94W eastward. An upper level trough extends from a 34N18W cyclonic circulation center, to 34N35W, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 29N46W. The trough continues to a third cyclonic circulation center that is near 23N62W, into the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea near 18N63W and 16N70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 300 nm on either side of the trough from 27N northward between 40W and 55W, and elsewhere from 20N northward between 50W and 72W. A surface trough is along 27N67W 24N70W 20N72W to the north of Hispaniola and at the SE end of the Bahamas. A surface trough, that is near the SE Bahamas, is forecast to move across the area through Monday. Gentle to moderate winds will be associated with this trough. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong during the evening and nighttime hours just N of Hispaniola through the middle of next week. A surface ridge will dominate the rest of the forecast area, supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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The tropical Atlantic remains quiet!... RTW
Friday, August 24, 2018
HURRICANE LANE UPDATE AUG 24, 2018...0800 AM HST
WTPA32 PHFO 241807 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 800 AM HST Fri Aug 24 2018 ...HURRICANE LANE LURKING JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO SOME AREAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 158.0W ABOUT 170 MI...274 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Oahu * Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Hawaii County A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Kauai County...including the islands of Kauai and Niihau A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should already be complete. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hurricane Lane. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was estimated by radar and satellite to be near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 158.0 West. Lane is moving toward the north near 2 mph (3 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is anticipated on Saturday, with an increase in forward speed. On the latest forecast track, the center of Lane will move dangerously close to portions of the central Hawaiian islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast later today and tonight, but Lane is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the islands. Further weakening is expected on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A weather station near Waimea on the Big Island recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with gusts to 51 mph (82 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the Big Island, Maui County and Oahu. These conditions will likely persist today. Hurricane conditions are expected over some areas of Maui County and Oahu starting tonight. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible on Kauai starting tonight or Saturday. RAINFALL: Rain bands will continue to overspread the Hawaiian Islands well ahead of Lane. Excessive rainfall associated with this slow moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with localized amounts up to 40 inches possible over portions of the Hawaiian Islands. Over 30 inches of rain has already fallen at a couple locations on the windward side of the Big Island. SURF: Very large swells generated by the slow moving hurricane will severely impact the Hawaiian Islands into this weekend. These swells will produce life-threatening and damaging surf along exposed shorelines, particularly today through Saturday. In addition, a prolonged period of extreme surf will also likely lead to significant coastal erosion. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along south and west facing shores near the center of Lane. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster R Ballardhttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/?storm=Lane
5day Wind Field Radius
Present Wind field Radius
Radar below are from different islands
Satellite and radar combined
Satellite no radar overlay
Water vapor satellite
Latest guidance models
Late or previous model run
GFS Ensemble
Video looping through different overlays and animation combined
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 24, 2018...0345 PM EDT
Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
249 AXNT20 KNHC 241706 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 106 PM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa along 18W from 04N- 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment and has 700 mb support. Scattered showers are from 11N-21N between 16W-26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N- 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a very dry and stable environment which is inhibiting significant convection at this time. Scattered showers are noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough along and south of 10N. An E Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W from 02N- 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is also embedded within a very dry and stable environment caused by Saharan Air Layer that is spreading westward. Scattered moderate convection is near Trinidad from 09N-11N between 60W-64W. A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 82W south of 20N to 03N81W. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the southern portion of the wave from 08N-13N between 75W-84W. A tropical wave has its axis along 96W south of 20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are over the Bay of Campeche S of 20N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N16W to 08N26W to 09N39W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical wave from 07N43W to 04N51W. A 1012 mb low is centered on the monsoon trough near 09N39W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the low center. Isolated moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N-06N between 10W-40W. Scattered showers are along the ITCZ from 02N-06N between 40W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends across N Florida from 30N80W to 28N83W. Scattered showers are over the Florida Peninsula. An approaching tropical wave is advecting scattered showers oveer W Cuba and the Straits of Florida. The Bay of Campeche has similar showers due to another tropical wave. The remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. The pressure gradient across the Gulf supports light winds throughout, with a wind shift along the frontal system. In the upper levels, an upper level high centered over southern Texas near 30N98W is producing NE upper level winds over the Gulf with upper level moisture. Expect the front to fully dissipate during the next six hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered near the Gulf of Honduras at 17N85W. The low is enhancing scattered showers near the upper-low center, and is enhancing convection over the SW Caribbean with upper level diffluence. Expect strong nocturnal pulses of wind through the upcoming weekend along the coast of Colombia and Venezuela with seas building to 9 ft. A new tropical wave will reach 55W on Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A stationary front is off the coast of northern Florida from 32N76W to 30N80W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 26N and west of 70W. An upper level low is centeredE of the Bahamas near 24N71W enhancing convection. A surface trough extends over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 24N40W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm of the trough. Saharan dust and associated dry air is noted mainly east of 60W on GOES-16 GEO color dust imagery. The dust is suppressing convection across most of the tropical Atlantic waters from 15N- 30N. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Tropics remain quiet! RTW
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