Still monitoring two systems that NHC has as invest 97L and 98L.
97L has a LOW chance 20% within 48 hrs and within 5-days. This system is showing signs of development as we speak. Thunderstorm activity has increased and the system seems to have a nice circulation associated with it.
This system if it does develop tropically it will more than likely be short lived as it enters the Caribbean.
As for 98L that system is a fish storm will remain out over the north Atlantic until a cold front sweeps it northeast.
GFS model from this morning may have gone bonkers suggesting a tropical cyclone development over the southern Caribbean and a track over Cuba and landfall over southern Florida.
Although this is a hot area during the latter half of September and October, I have to see a consistent model run by run showing the same scenario. I will monitor that as well but for now it remains questionable...RTW
Thursday, September 20, 2018
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 19, 2018... 1055 AM EDT
Invest 97L
Has a Low chance 20% within 48 hrs and within 5- days. However, this system is going to encounter hostile conditions ahead as it tracks toward the west-northwest. Dry air ahead of this system will more than likely inhibit development. Model suggesting dissipation as it tracks over the islands or north of the islands.
I will be monitoring west of Africa below 10 deg latitude along the monsoonal trough which seems active with showers and storms. This trough is far enough south and is not being influenced by Sahara Dry Air and Dust. Models want to develop some lows along this trough. However,although some make it to the east Caribbean they seem to dissipate over the Central Caribbean. Still to far out in the future and this may never materialize. I will keep you posted...RTW
Has a Low chance 20% within 48 hrs and within 5- days. However, this system is going to encounter hostile conditions ahead as it tracks toward the west-northwest. Dry air ahead of this system will more than likely inhibit development. Model suggesting dissipation as it tracks over the islands or north of the islands.
I will be monitoring west of Africa below 10 deg latitude along the monsoonal trough which seems active with showers and storms. This trough is far enough south and is not being influenced by Sahara Dry Air and Dust. Models want to develop some lows along this trough. However,although some make it to the east Caribbean they seem to dissipate over the Central Caribbean. Still to far out in the future and this may never materialize. I will keep you posted...RTW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 9, 2018... 0400 PM EDT
013 AXNT20 KNHC 191745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is associated with a distinct 700 mb trough. Scattered showers over Africa from 14N- 18N between 12W-17W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the southern portion of the wave over the Atlantic from 05N-08N between 18W-25W. A surface trough is over the the E Atlantic from 20N28W to 12N31W, moving NW at 15 KT. This trough has no significant convection. It is associated with a distinct 700 mb trough. A surface trough is over the Atlantic along 46W/47W from 12N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This trough may be developing a surface low. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-14N between 40W-50W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 10N-17N between 58W-64W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from W Africa near 13N16W, to 12N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N21W to 08N30W to 07N45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 25W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The northern extent of a surface trough, the remnants of Isaac, is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is over the Yucatan Channel and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Weak surface ridging is over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 28N. In the upper levels an upper level low is centered over S Texas near 28N98W. Upper level diffluence is over the W Gulf. Scattered showers are from 20N-25N between 95W-98W. The remainder of the Gulf has mostly fair weather. The remnants of Isaac will move across the Yucatan Channel today and move into the southwest Gulf of Mexico Thu and Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... The remnant trough of Isaac extends from 22N86W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean N of 15N between 79W-89W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 15N between 77W-87W. The monsoon trough is along 09N over Costa Rica and Panama enhancing convection. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. This tropical wave will move west across the central Caribbean Thu into Fri, and pass west of the area through late Sat into Sun. Strong gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms associated with this tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean. Meanwhile high pressure building from the central Atlc into the central Bahamas will support moderate to fresh trade winds and building seas across the entire basin late Wed through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A quasi-stationary front is off the coast of Georgia. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-31N between 74W-78W. A surface trough is further E from 34N64W to 28N68W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this trough. A 1022 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N49W. The remnant low of Joyce is over the E Atlantic near 30N29W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the center. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N66W enhancing convection. Low pressure moving off the Carolinas tonight will drag an attendant frontal trough across the NW Atlantic waters north of 27N Thu and Fri. The low will sink to near 31N67W Fri evening then drift W and slowly weaken Sat and Sun. NE swell will dominate waters N of 26N over the weekend. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa
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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands has decreased some this morning. Further development is becoming less likely since the environment is becoming unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2. A non-tropical low is forecast to form this weekend between Bermuda and the Azores. After that time, conditions are expected to be favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation while the low meanders over the north Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Avila
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Tuesday, September 18, 2018
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE SEPT 18, 2018... PM EDT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE ADVISORY ISSUED BY NHC
711 WTNT35 KNHC 182028 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018 ...JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE TONIGHT OR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 27.8W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 27.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to gradually turn to the southwest and west through early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low late tonight or early Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Campbell/Blake
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 18, 2018...0222 PM EDT
295 AXNT20 KNHC 181741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 141 PM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Tropical Depression Joyce is centered near 31.6N 27.4W at 18/1500 UTC or 385 nm S of the Azores moving S at 7 kt. Joyce will gradually turn to the southwest and west over the next couple of days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple days, and Joyce is forecast to become a remnant low tomorrow. Scattered moderate convection is noted between 60-90 nm northeast of the center and between 45-75 nm south of the center. Scatterometer data shows that the strongest winds are located in the northwest semicircle of Joyce. See the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with axis along 57W/58W from Suriname to 18N, moving west at 20-25 kt. Model guidance indicates the wave is associated with a 700 mb trough and is well-defined on the TPW product. It is near the leading edge of an extensive area of dry Saharan air from 12N-24N between 37W-57W. Only isolated showers are near the wave axis at this time. Moisture associated with the tropical wave is expected to mainly affect the Windward Islands later today into early Wed. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 07N30W to near the coast of Suriname. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 300 nm south of the ITCZ from 20W-42W. Scattered moderate convection extends to within 60 nm south and 300 nm north of the ITCZ, between 42W-50W. The ITCZ is much more convectively active than 24 hours ago, especially between 37W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1015 mb surface high is over the western Gulf near 27N94W. Another 1017 mb surface high is centered over northern FL near 30N82W. Light to gentle breezes and minimal seas will continue over most of the Gulf during the next few days. An upper-level low is near 26N94W with upper-level cyclonic flow covering the western Gulf. A surface trough, associated with the remnants of Isaac, is over the northwest Caribbean along 83W from western Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. The trough will move across the Yucatan Channel through Wed, then across the Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche late Wed into Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough over the northwest Caribbean along 83W from western Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua is associated with the remnants of Isaac. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west and 120 nm east of the trough axis from 17N-21N. The trough will move west of the area on Wednesday. A trough over the southeast Bahamas continues to enhance some shower and thunderstorm activity across eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. High pressure building from the central Atlantic into the central Bahamas will support moderate to fresh trade winds and building seas across the entire basin late Wed through Fri. Near the coast of Colombia, fresh to strong winds are expected along with 9 ft seas through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Joyce. An upper-level low with a surface reflection is spinning just south of Bermuda. A surface trough extends from this feature southwestward to the southeastern Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are located along and east of the trough axis west of 65W. This convective activity is affecting the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Abundant cloudiness and showers extend elsewhere east of the trough from 20N-31N between 56W-65W. The surface trough will likely weaken over the next 24-48 hours. Another trough extends into the forecast area from T.D. Joyce southward to near 21N32W. A narrow band of mainly low clouds with showers is associated with the trough. A 1023 mb surface high is located in between the two aforementioned troughs near 31N47W. A trough just inland over the southeastern U.S. will move eastward across the waters east of north-central Florida tonight through Wed night while weakening. Hovemoller Diagrams and satellite imagery indicate that a new tropical wave is about to move off the coast of Africa. This wave will likely be added to the 18Z map. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen/GR
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Monday, September 17, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 17, 2018...0450 PM EDT
388 AXNT20 KNHC 171747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Tropical Depression Joyce centered near 34.0N 28.4W at 17/1500 UTC or 250 nm SSW of the Azores moving ESE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that Joyce is a sheared system under strong western vertical shear. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the NE quadrant. Joyce is forecast to turn toward the southeast today, turn south on Tuesday, and then southwest on Wednesday. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low Tuesday. See the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W from 02N-18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Model guidance indicates that the wave is associated with a 700 mb trough. The wave marks the leading edge of an extensive area of dry Saharan air with dust from 10N-25N between 15W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is over the southern portion of the wave near the ITCZ from 05N- 10N between 38W-50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from W Africa near 17N16W to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N20W to 06N30W to 07N44W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N48W to the coast of South America near 08N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N- 12N between 50W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... In the upper-levels, a low is over the western gulf near 25N94W, and a high is centered over N Florida near 30N81W. Upper level moisture is over most of the Gulf producing scattered high clouds. At the surface, a 1016 mb high is over the NW Gulf near 27N93W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NW Gulf. 05-10 kt SE to S winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. The remnants of tropical cyclone Isaac, currently near Jamaica, will move west across Yucatan Channel on Wed and across the southwest Gulf waters on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak area of low pressure, associated with he remnants of Isaac, is located just south of Jamaica. Showers and thunderstorms are currently limited, and any development should be slow to occur during the next day or so. By Wednesday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for re-development to occur when the system moves toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days as the system moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives the system a low chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours. Gentle trades are west of the Isaac remnants, while gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. An upper level trough north of Hispaniola is also enhancing convective activity over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The tropical wave currently along 46W is expected to enter the Caribbean Sea on Wed, accompanied by fresh trades and building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above, for details on Tropical Depression Joyce. Also refer to the tropical wave section for a wave along 46W. A broad deep layer trough extends SW to NE across the central Atlantic from a large upper-level low centered near 27N65W. The upper-level low will move northward over the next couple of days. At the surface, a 1013 mb low is near 25N66W with a trough extending southwest to near Hispaniola at 29N59W. The system is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the trough axis between 20N-30W and west of 50W. Well east of the trough, a 1024 mb high is centered near 28N39W. The surface trough and low are forecast to weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours as a ridge builds westward. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa/Hagen
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 17, 2018...09/17/2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
A new surge or Sahara dust and dry air will more than likely suppress any activity that may try to form off the African coast. Our attention should now be focused on the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. RTW
566 AXNT20 KNHC 171204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Tropical Depression Joyce is centered near 34.2N 329.0W at 17/0900 UTC or 250 nm SW of the Azores moving E at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that Joyce is a sheared system under strong west to northwest vertical shear as noted by its deep convection being sheared off to the northeast of its center. The convection is defined as the moderate type intensity within 30 nm either side of a line from 35N25W to 35N29W. Overcast to broken low and mid-level clouds with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are well to the east and northeast of Joyce from 34N to 38N between 20W and 25W. Strong southwest to west winds aloft and dry air in its surrounding environment will continue to hamper Joyce over the next few days causing it to gradually weaken. Joyce is forecast by the latest NHC advisory to slow its forward motion while turning toward the southeast today, south on Tue, and southwest on Wed. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 43W from 04N and 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Model guidance indicates that the wave is moving through a pretty well pronounced 700 mb jet stream branch accompanied by a jet core of 30-45 kt east winds to the east of the wave axis. The wave marks the leading edge of quite an extensive area of Saharan Air for this time during the season. The African dust extends from 10N to 25N east of the wave to Africa. Dust that surrounded the wave has thinned out since yesterday as a surge of low-level moisture is on either side of the wave south of 15N to the ITCZ. This moisture surge consists of scattered showers and thunderstorms moving quickly westward from 10N to 15N between 38W and 44W, and within 120 nm either side of the wave in the vicinity of the ITCZ region from 04N to 09N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from well inland Africa southwestward to the coastline of northwest Senegal near 17N16W and continues to 09N22W. The ITCZ extends from 09N22W to 06N30W to just west of the tropical wave along 43W. It resumes at 08N43W to 08N58W. Aside from the shower and thunderstorms activity associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 210 nm north of the ITCZ between 53W and 58W, within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 45W and 49W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 51W and 53W. Similar convection is northwest of the ITCZ within 60 nm of a line from 09N58W to the coast of S America at 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 48W and 51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... In the upper-levels, and elongated upper low is over the western gulf near 25N93W, with a trough extending northeastward to inland southeastern Louisiana and continues well northeastward of the area. Another trough extends southeastward from the low to the eastern Bay of Campeche and the southwest Yucatan Peninsula. Upper-level cyclonic flow covers the western Gulf W of 90W. An upper level high is centered over the eastern Gulf near 25N84W. Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the eastern Gulf. At the surface, a trough is just inland the coast of Mexico from 20N to near San Fernando. Plenty of atmospheric instability along with deep moisture in place is leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 25N and west of 94W to inland Mexico. A 1015 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 27N93W. Relatively weak high pressure is across the basin. A surface trough extends southwestward from what is now Tropical Depression Florence located over the border of eastern Georgia, southwestward to the Florida Panhandle. Scatterometer data highlighted light to gentle anticyclonic flow west of 87W, and light to moderate south to southwest flow east of 87W. Little change in surface Gulf winds is expected through the middle part of this week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the central Caribbean from just west of Haiti to a 1009 mb low near 17.5N76W, and southeastward to near 13N74W. These features and related convection denote a broad area of low pressure associated with the former tropical cyclone Isaac. Abundant moisture and atmospheric instability, that is further enhanced by the tail-end of a central Atlantic deep layer trough that extends to Haiti and to near 17N85W, remains entrenched across the central Caribbean and much of the eastern Caribbean. This is resulting in scattered moderate to strong convection from 16N to 18N between 75W and 76W, including the eastern portion of Jamaica. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere between 65W and 80W, while isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of 65W. The broad area low pressure remains disorganized. Only slow development will be possible during the next day or so due to proximity to dry air and land interaction with Jamaica. By Wed, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for re-development to occur. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will be possible over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days while the system moves west- northwestward to westward toward the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Gentle trades are west of the trough and low, while, gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere east of the trough. The central Atlantic tropical wave will move across the tropical waters east of the Windward Islands Tue and Tue night, and through the east Caribbean on Wed and Thu accompanied by fresh to strong trades and building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above, for details on Tropical Depression Joyce. A rather strong and broad deep-layer trough extends across the central Atlantic from a large upper-level low, centered near 27N65W. Plenty of instability exists with this trough as it acts on a very moist atmosphere. The upper-level low is forecast to gradually move westward today, then move in a northward direction tonight through Tue. At the surface, a nearly stationary 1013 mb low is near 24N65W, with a trough extending northeastward to near 30N59W, and southwestward to near 20N70W. To the east of this system, another surface trough extends from 29N50W to near 24N61W. All of these features acting on the present very moist and unstable atmosphere are leading to the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters from 19N to 26N between 59W and 65W, and from 18N to 23N between 65W and 74W, including the Windward Passage and vicinity waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also evident from 18N to 23N between 54W and 59W, and from 26N to 32N between 50W and 56W. Any of this activity is capable of producing very heavy rainfall as well as frequent lightning strikes. Drier air is present to the west of the upper- level trough and low, where only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted. A 1022 mb high is center over the central Atlantic near 28N39W, with a ridge extending southwestward to near 20N60W. Rather dry and stable conditions are present east of 50W, except near the tropical wave along 43W as described above. Also as stated above, a rather extensive batch of Saharan Air is observed over the eastern Atlantic from 10N to 25N between 15W and 45W. These conditions are contributing to the already dry and stable conditions supported by the high pressure that in place over that part of the Atlantic. The dust will continue to migrate westward during the next few days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre/Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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A new surge or Sahara dust and dry air will more than likely suppress any activity that may try to form off the African coast. Our attention should now be focused on the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. RTW
ISP CONNECTION PROBELM AT WORK CONTINUES SEPT 17, 2018...0906 AM EDT
Well I tried opening my website builder at home and it works fine, so apparently they made some changes to the wifi here at work which does not allow for my website builder to load. So I am not going to be able to update the website here at work during the day, unless they correct the problem on their end. I may have to try using another Website builder instead or just stop using the website altogether and update my tropic images here on the blog instead. I will see what else I can do in the mean time to prevent losing the website I built. I apologize for the inconvenience.
RTW
RTW
Sunday, September 16, 2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 16, 2018...0508 PM EDT
001 WTNT35 KNHC 162032 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 ...JOYCE HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 32.6W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 32.6 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. After that time, the cyclone should slow down and turn toward the southeast and then the southwest away from the Azores. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Joyce could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Saturday, September 15, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 15, 2018 0543 PM EDT
CLICK BELOW FOR NHC WEBSITE
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
HELENE
JOYCE
REMNANTS OF ISAAC
NEW SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE COMING DAYS
...FLORENCE FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA CAUSING CATASTROPHIC LIFE THREATENING RIVER FLASH FLOODING...
297 WTNT31 KNHC 150241 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 ...CENTER OF FLORENCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES AND STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... ...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 79.1W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been discontinued north of Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina * Pamlico Sound Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor the progress of Florence. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located over extreme eastern South Carolina near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 79.1 West. Florence is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. Florence is forecast to turn westward and then northward through the Carolinas and to the Ohio Valley by Monday. Radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently reported at Lumberton, North Carolina. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) were recently reported at Florence, South Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground... The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...4-7 ft Ocracoke Inlet NC to Cape Lookout NC...2-4 ft Cape Lookout NC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft Cape Fear NC to Myrtle Beach SC...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive rainfall in the following areas... Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding. Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday in portions of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well inland. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through Saturday night. SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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