TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 21, 2018... 0336 PM EDT

Invest 97L still encountering upper level shear development if any will be slow to occur.

Invest 98L still lacking thunderstorm activity.  Development if any will be slow to occur.

Invest 99L continues to look good on satellite and NHC raised the chance for development within 48 hrs to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 21, 2018

The tropical Atlantic looking busy again however, only a few systems have a chance for development.

Invest 99L off the African coast is looking rather impressive on visible satellite and on color image this morning.  The system has a nice outflow and color image shows very cold cloud tops a sign that this system is becoming better organized.  A depression or tropical storm can form at anytime.

This system has a LOW chance 20% within 48 hrs and a MED chance 60% within 5-days.  The chance for development more than likely increase later today because the system continues to show signs of organization...RTW

Invest 98L southeast of Bermuda the remnants of Florence is void of thunderstorms.  This system is forecast to loop back toward the coast and recurve out to sea.  I dont see much development with this system at this time.  Chance for development is LOW 0% within 48 hrs and LOW 20% with 5-days...RT

Invest 97L has an exposed circulation to the west-northwest of the thunderstorms. This system is presently passing through a shear environment with upper level shear from the west seperating the thunderstorms the east and away from circulation.  Development if any will be slow to occur.  Chances for development are LOW 10% within 48 hrs and LOW 10% within 5-days... RTW

There are watching a non-tropical low pressure in the north Atlantic bewteen Bermuda and the Azores that has LOW chance 10% within 48 hrs and a HIGH chance 70% within 5-days.  Not much going on here now but there is a frontal boundary where a low could form from...RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 20, 2018... 0322 PM EDT

Invest 97L not looking as well define as earlier.  In fact this system seems to be in a shear environment and dry air is also interacting with this 97L.  Chances for development are still low and have dropped to 10% within 48 hrs and within 5-days.

Invest 98L has not yet developed but most of the models suggesting development from this system over the north Central Atlantic in the coming days.  This system has a MED chance 50% within 5- days.  No a threat to land a fish storm!

Another area of investigation will emerge off the African coast In a day or so.  That has a LOW chance 0% within 48 hrs and 20% within 5-days.

An area of low pressure near Bermuda more than likely the remnants of Florence seems to be getting better organized and is forecast to turn back toward the Eastern seaboard and maybe brush the coast as it turns north and east.

I will continue to monitor the Caribbean for development in the coming weeks...RTW

REMNANT LOW FROM FLORENCE LOOKING WELL ORGANIZED

REMNANT low from what use to be Florence is looking somewhat organized.  Center is slighly exposed but it seems like it wants to reform.  It is presently being pulled by a frontal boundary.  Some models show a loop back toward the Eastern seaboard and a loop back north and northeast along the coast.  Questionable but I will watch it...RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE SEPT 20, 2018

Still monitoring two systems that NHC has as invest 97L and 98L.

97L has a LOW chance 20% within 48 hrs and within 5-days.  This system is showing signs of development as we speak.  Thunderstorm activity has increased and the system seems to have a nice circulation associated with it.

This system if it does develop tropically it will more than likely be short lived as it enters the Caribbean.

As for 98L that system is a fish storm will remain out over the north Atlantic until a cold front sweeps it northeast.

GFS model from this morning may have gone bonkers suggesting a tropical cyclone development over the southern Caribbean and a track over Cuba and landfall over southern Florida.

Although this is a hot area during the latter half of September and October, I have to see a consistent model run by run showing the same scenario.  I will monitor that as well but for now it remains questionable...RTW