TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 5, 2018... 1111 AM EDT

Leslie still stuck in a blocked environment.  Leslie swells will now be reaching as far as the Eastern seaboard. 

Caribbean disturbance gradually becoming better organized and could become a depression or tropical storm this weekend or early next week.

Model tracks flip flopping,  now a track northward.  These tracks will continue doing this so they remain questionable.

High pressure in the Atlantic over a portion of Florida helps to slowly steer this system around the peripheral of he high pressure ridge.  Leslie in the Atlantic sandwiched between high pressure is not allowing Bermuda high to move much Eastward so this keeps a buffer over a portion of Florida. 

However, on a track like models suggest at this time, the cyclone would make landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.  That seems to have been the tracks for Gulf storms this season. 

I say anyone who lives from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 4, 2018...1239 PM EDT

Leslie a tad weaker and continues producing rough surf for the Bermuda Island.

Caribbean disturbance drifting northwestward. 

Models continue trending to the west of previous model run, an indication that high pressure over southeast will block a northward track or a northeast track for now. 

As high pressure moves east toward the Atlantic then this a tropical storm or hurricane will begin to turn north and eventually northeastward around the peripheral of the high pressure ridge. 

This is as I see it right now.  I caution you though!  This is not an official forecast just my observation.

Always monitor National Hurricane Center forecast...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 3, 2018... 0404 PM EDT

Leslie tracking over the north Central Atlantic.  Bermuda is feeling swells from the tropical Cyclone.

Broad are of low pressure located in the South Caribbean is still being monitored for tropical cyclone formation.

Last three model run has been trending to a weaker system and more toward the west-northwest.  There were a few that took it north. It's hard to tell if these run are valid because we don't have an actual center of circulation so these model run are all questionable for now.

I do believe if any of these model run to the west were to be valid, it could be due to high pressure in the Atlantic building west over Florida.  If that were the case, then we could see a Mexico or even Texas landfall.  However, like I said before these model run are questionable for now...RTW

HOW MUCH RAIN WILL TRACK NORTH FROM CARIBBEAN?

As the disturbance in the Caribbean begins to drift north- northwestward, it will also drag some of the precipitation associated with it.

This means moisture will spread northward over the Cayman islands, Jamaica, Cuba, the Florida straits and South Florida.

How much rain will all depend on the evolution and track of this tropical disturbance.

Below are the 48 hour and day 7 over all rainfall forecast...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 3, 2018... 1019 AM EDT

Leslie now a hurricane over the North Central Atlantic.  Leslie continues to be only a threat to shipping, but it is producing swells along the Bermuda coast.

Still monitoring a disturbance in the South Caribbean associated with a broad area of low pressure.

This disorganized area of showers a storms is spreading west and east and could affect as far as Haiti and Puerto Rico as it drifts slowly northward toward the Northwest Caribbean.

As this system drifts north- northwest, it could become better organized and a depression or tropical storm could form during the weekend.

At this time models continue to show some development but are not as aggressive as past model run, where some showed a hurricane in the Caribbean and Eastern Gulf.

High pressure in the Atlantic should keep this system moving toward the Northwest or North-Northwest.

Interest in Cuba, the Yucatan, South Florida, New Orleans to the Florida Pan Handle, should closely monitor the progress of this system...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 2, 2018...0441 PM EDT

Leslie nearing hurricane strength.  Leslie remains only a threat to shipping!

I continue to monitor the South and northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation.  

Models continue to hint development in the coming days and week.  

The track of this future storm is questionable.  Anywhere from the Gulf to the Bahamas for now.  However with high pressure in the Atlantic the likelyhood of a Gulf storm is possible...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 2, 2018... 0954 AM EDT

Leslie strengthens over night and is forecast to become a hurricane as it tracks slowly north and then east over the nirth Central Atlantic.  Only a threat to shipping!

Other than Leslie the Atlantic remains quiet at this time.

The south Caribbean is the focus of attention during the coming days and week as the forecast models are hinting on tropical development.

As always with a developing future system, the uncertainty to where this storm system will end up is like a million dollar question.  So always have a plan of action, and check your supplies!  

RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 1, 2018... 1041 AM EDT

The tropics have quiet down sfor now.  Other than Leslie over the open waters of the north Central Atlantic, there are two tropical waves not doing much.

Now that we enter October we focus our attention on the Caribbean.  Forecast models have been hinting on some development in the Southern Caribbean in the coming week.

This development is questionable at this time, but I will closely monitor this area during the coming days...RTW