TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN OCT 7, 2018...0712 PM EDT

Tropical Storm Michael forms in the Northwest Caribbean. 

Satellite imagery shows that Michael's inflow is being cut off by westerly upper level shear at this time.  Slow strengthening is forecast until Michael moves away from the Northwest Caribbean and enters the southern Gulf.

Recon relocated the center of Michael further east of previous location and NHC had to adjust the forecast track Eastward as well. 

The question, is will Michael reform the center further east of present location again?  If so This would throw a monkey wrench in the forecast for the west coast of Florida and the Lower keys if that eastward relocation continues.

The northeast bend over northern Florida at the end of forecast is in response to trough that is tracking east from the central U.S., the timing of this trough determines when the north eastward turn will occur.  Either it crosses the Florida Big Bend or further south of there.

The Atlantic high pressure ridge is keeping the cyclone from tracking northeast for now so the cyclone is forecast to track northward around the peripheral of the Atlantic high pressure ridge.

Interest from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle and southward along the Florida west coast including the Keys should closely monitor the progress of Michael and be ready in case the forecast keeps shifting eastward.
RTW

STORM INVEST 92L A POSSIBLE EUROPEAN THREAT

Storm Investigation 92L looks to be a possible European threat, however, if it does acquire sub-tropical or tropical status the conditions are forecast to become unfavorable further east of this system.

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 7, 2018...0102 PM EDT

Tropical Depression 14
Fourteen continues organizing and a tropical storm can form at anytime time. 

Models still suggesting a northerly track then a northeasterly track around the peripheral of the Atlantic high pressure ridge.

Interest from Mississippi to the Florida Big Bend should continue to monitor the progress of T.D. Fourtine...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 7, 2018...0209 AM EDT

PTC  Fourteen
Fourteen continues to show signs of organization and a depression or tropical storm could form at anytime...RTW

WEATHER UPDATE OCT 6, 2018... 0504 PM EDT

Tropical disturbance Invest 91L slowly becoming better organized.  NHC has now upgraded this system to Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen.

Watch and warnings issued for a portion the Yucatan and Western Cuba.

Interest in Key West, Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend should closely monitor the progress of this developing system...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 6, 2018... 0210 PM EDT

• LESLIE TRACK EASTWARD ONLY A THREAT TO SHIPPING.

• STORM INVEST 91L STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT, 80% WITHIN 48 HRS. AND 90% WITHIN 5-DAYS.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  INTEREST IN THE YUCATAN, WESTERN CUBA, FLORIDA KEYS, LOUISIANA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

• STORM INVEST 97E IN THE EAST PACIFIC SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THIS LOW WILL CROSS OVER INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND COULD HEAD INTO THE GULF AS WELL.  ITS NOW MOVED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SO THE CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE NOW 0%.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT INTO NEXT WEEK.

RTW

 LESLIE

 INVEST 91L

 INVEST 97E

STORM INVESTIGATION 97E OCT 5, 2018

The Caribbean needs to monitor Storm Invest 97E which models hint that this low will cross over from the East Pacific into the Caribbean.  That would be after Invest 91L or Michael tracks north across northeast Gulf coast.  This system could follow a similar path.  However,  its Still to early to tell, but Euro model shows this system in the Northwest Caribbean...RTW