BARRY UPDATE 10 AM EDT JULY 12, 2019

JULY 12, 2019 1025 PM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER (RTW)

...BARRY GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS THAT BARRY IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST.

LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS A CANOPY OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND INDICATION THAT BARRY IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING.  BARRY STILL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A CAT 1 HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL.  HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST CONCERN HERE IS NOT THE WINDS BUT THE RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY.  MORE PEOPLE DIE FROM FLOODING THAN FROM HURRICANE WINDS SO PLEASE HEED THE ADVICE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND MEDIA FROM YOUR AREA.

MODELS ARE CLUSTERING TOGETHER AS BARRY MOVES CLOSER TO LANDFALL, SO ACCURACY IS BECOMING HIGHER.

RTW

 

National Hurricane Center

000
WTNT32 KNHC 121448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022019
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT BARRY IS STRENGTHENING...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Lake Pontchartrain
and east of Shell Beach to Biloxi Mississippi.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Biloxi
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.  For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 90.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  A motion
toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a
turn toward the north Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Barry will approach the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana through tonight and then make landfall over the central
Louisiana coast on Saturday.  After landfall, Barry is expected to
move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through
Sunday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast
before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the
center reaches the Louisiana coast.  Weakening is expected after
Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.  The NOAA automated station at the Southwest Pass
of the Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of
54 mph and a wind gust of 60 mph at an elevation of 125 ft.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and surface
observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft
Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana along
with southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches.  These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life
threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into
the Lower Mississippi Valley.  Over the remainder of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are
expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area tonight or Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
during the next several hours.  Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area by tonight or Saturday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the Tropical Storm
Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by tonight
or Saturday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are
possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle through Saturday night.

TORNADOES:  A couple tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and
the Alabama coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven