TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 17, 2019

Tropical Weather Outlook
July 17, 2019 1100 AM EDT

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 22° West is not showing any signs of organization at this time.  There are some showers and storms in a long line that extends southeast from the African coast to 30° West.  This is mainly being enhanced by the monsoon trough in that area.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave or a mid latitude trough is near 31°-30° West with the wave axis extend north and south between 30°-20 North.  This wave / Mid Latitude trough is void of convection (thunderstorms) at this time.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 51°-50° West is also void of convection (thunderstorms).

4.  A westward moving tropical wave near 64°-63° West has some showers and storms trailing behind near the Venezuela Northeast coast.  There are no signs of organization.

5.  A westward moving tropical wave over Nicaragua/ Honduras has some scattered showers and storms inland.  This wave will be dropped from the Atlantic outlook and will be added to the East Pacific outlook in the coming day.

The tropical remains quiet for now!  Lets talk a bit about El Nino for the peak of Hurricane season.  As it is at this time I figured that El Nino would be stronger but there are hints that this may not be the case.  Blues are showing up which is cooler sea surface temps.  If this persist we may be in a neutral season once again between El Nino and La Nina.  Conditions like this are like a balance scale it could tip either way.  We have seen several years of a neutral like season where El Nino is present then another moment it tips on the La Nina condition.  So if that is the case all bets are off and the guessing game begins.  Just be hurricane ready in case nature throws another curve ball in the forecast.

RTW

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