DORIAN 11 AM EDT PUBLIC ADVISORY

DORIAN 11 AM EDT PUBLIC ADVISORY
AUG 26, 2019...1103 AM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER- RTW

DORIAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND WE COULD SEE A HURRICANE AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING.  NEW FORECAST TRACK FROM NHC NOW SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE BAHAMAS.  STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY'S TO HOW STRONG AND WHAT IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE ON FLORIDA.  i WILL KEEP YOU POSTED.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

000
WTNT35 KNHC 261446
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 57.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued by the government of St. Lucia
for St. Lucia.

The government of France has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas later
could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 57.7 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a
turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late
today and tonight, and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Tuesday. Dorian is expected to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on
Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian
could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern
Windward Islands on Tuesday, and is expected to be a hurricane when
it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall:  Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St.
Vincent, including Barbados.  Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches
are possible across the northern Windward Islands.  Rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada
and across Dominica.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday
within the Hurricane Watch area in the Lesser Antilles.  Tropical
storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area by tonight or Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart