MODEL COMPARISON AND TREND MONITORING

NOTE:  THIS IS JUST MY ANALYSIS AND IS NOT IN ANYWAY A FORECAST AND SHOULD NEVER BE INTERPRETED AS ONE.  ALWAYS REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ACCURATE INFORMATION AND FORECAST.

RTW

I RAN THESE PRESENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL TO GET AN IDEA OF ANY POSSIBLE TREND IN MODEL SHIFT.  SIMPLE TEST NO SCIENCE BEHIND IT BUT IT HELPED ME GET A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE IRMA WAS HEADED A FEW YEARS AGO.  LETS HOPE IT WORKS FOR ME AGAIN.

LOOKING AT NHC FORECAST PRESENT AND PAST THERE SEEMS TO BE A NORTHWARD TREND TO THE TRACK.  THE EURO MODEL HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH AS WELL.  TAKE A LOOK AT BELOW MAP.

ALSO COMPARING THE H-MODELS AND YOU CAN ALSO SEE SOME ARE TRENDING NORTH AS WELL.  SO WE NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUN.

ARE MODEL TRENDING NORTH WITH THE EURO IS MY QUESTION?