TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 24, 2019

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
0315 PM EDT...0316 PM EDT
RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER- RTW

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 27°/26° west is accompanied by scattered showers and storms associated with the interaction with a monsoon trough in the area.

2.  Tropical Depression #2 located approximately 1000 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.  This system thunderstorm activity has decreased it could be due to the Sahara dust and dry air to the northwest of this system.  The system at around 100 PM EDT was just along the southeast leading edge of the dust and was gradually moving into it.  So this could be one of the reasons the convective activity has diminished at this time.  This is a large plume of dust, so will have to see what this does to this system in the coming days.  This system is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles as of the 11 AM EDT Forecast.  Regardless of what may happens with the dust and this system.  Interest in the Central and Northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of T.D. Five.

3. A westward moving tropical wave near 63°/62° west is still moving through dry air environment but there are signs to the west of this wave that some scattered showers and storms are developing as this system moves away from the dry conditions.

4.  A westward moving tropical wave near 81°/80° west has some scattered showers and both side of the waves axis.  there are no signs of orgainization from any of these waves at this time.

5.  Storm Invest 98L has moved off the Florida Peninsula and it is approximately located 20-30 miles east-northeast of Port Saint Lucie tracking torward the east-northeast.  Rains and storms are beginning to settle down along the coast as the low moves away form the coast this evening.

This system will begin to to gradually develop as it track northeast over the north Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours is HIGH 70%
Formation chance through 5-days is HIGH 90%

6.  A new storm invest of the Texas/ Louisiana coast is accompanied by heavy rain and storms with frequent lightning.  This system if it holds together could produce flash flooding fro Texas and a portion of Louisiana.  Development chance is low due to the proximity to the coast

Formation chance through 48 hours is LOW 10%
Formation Chance through 5-days is LOW 10%

RTW