TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (Note: Added 98L model run at 0521 PM EDT)

Tropical Weather Outlook
Aug 22, 2019...0400 PM EDT
Ralph's Tropical Weather- RTW

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 17° west has numerous showers and storms associated  on both side of the waves center axis.  This could be due to an interaction with the monsoon trough in this area.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave near 46°/48° west is void of any convection (thunderstorms).  the only thunderstorms I see are near 40° west and that is a low pressure east of this wave.  I am monitoring it for development.

3.  A westward moving tropical wave near 68°/67° west has some showers and storms west of the northern axis that are over Dominican Republic and some storms alonf the southern axis of the wave that is over South America.

4.  Storm Invest over the western Bahamas continues to show signs of slow organization.  Showers and storms are becoming more concentrated.  However, this system still lacking colder cloud tops/ deep convection.  This system is forecast to track northwest toward Southern Florida coast then eventually track north and east along the coast.  Some development could occur as it moves away from the U.S. coast early next week.  As this system gets closer to Florida showers and storms could increase and also over the western Bahamas since all the weather seems to be east of the weak circulation.

NHC has increase formation chance to the following:

Formation chance through 48 hours is LOW 10%
Formation chance through 5-days is LOW 30%

5.  A surface trough of low pressure in the western Gulf has numerous showers and storms associated with it.  I am monitoring this system since the EURO shows a weak low tracking north toward eastern Texas and then east toward Louisiana.  Just something to watch but nothing to be worried about at this time.  If this system continues to track toward the coast , then heavy rains that can produce flooding and storms with gusty winds will move on shore Texas and Louisiana over the weekend.