RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AND TROPICA DEPRESSION #2 JUNE 14, 2021...12:19AM EDT

 

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Ralph's Tropical Weather

TROPICAL UPDATE BY RTW

JUNE 14, 2021...12:19AM EDT

GULF OF MEXICO, FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS

• STILL MONITORING STORM INVESTIGATION 92L STATIONARY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A MED 60% CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THERE ARE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO MODERATE STORMS OVER THE YUCATAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 92L. TRACK FOR THIS DISTURBANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE A WELL DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER, A FEW MODELS SUGGEST A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM OR DEPRESSION TRACKING NORTH OR NORTHEAST. 
  

• INLAND FLORIDA AND OFF SHORE THE WEST AND EAST COAST ARE SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2, AND SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BECOME STRONG TODAY.  THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF THAT IS HELPING TO ENHANCE STORMS OFF SHORE THE WEST COAST AS THEY MOVE ON SHORE.  THE BAHAMAS IS ALSO ENCOUNTERING SOME OF THE STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

• OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THERE IS TROP DEPRESSION #2.  STRONG TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANY THIS LOW.  TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM IS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA

• SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG TO CLUSTERS OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE #1 AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

• EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALSO HAS A STRONG TO MODERATE CLUSTER OF STORMS AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE #2 APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE THAN LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

NORTH ATLANTIC, CENTRAL AND AFRICAN COAST

• NORTH ATLANTIC HAS SHOWERS AND STORMS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 . OTHER THAN THAT IT REMAINS TROPICAL STORM FREE FOR NOW.

• CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AS SAHARA DUST AND DRY AIR IS STILL IN THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC.

• AFRICAN CONTINENT AND OFF SHORE IS SEEING STRONG TO NUMEROUS HEAVY RAINS SINCE YESTERDAY AS AN AGGRESSIVE NEW TROPICAL WAVE #5 MAKES ITS WAY TO THE WEST.  

• THIS NEW WAVE HAS CAUGHT THIS ATTENTION OF NHC METEOROLOGIST AND IS NOW A STORM INVESTIGATION WITH NO NUMBER AT THIS TIME.  IF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT WAY UP TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR FORMATION IT WILL BE NAMED STORM INVEST 94L.

• THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOSTLY WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST, MOVING THIS WAVE INTO SAHARA DUST AND DRY AIR THAT WILL DISRUPT DEVELOPMENT.

RTW

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141141
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a 
well-defined low pressure system located about 90 miles southeast of 
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical 
characteristics.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is 
likely to form later today or tonight.  This system is expected to 
move northeastward away from the United States and move over colder 
waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for 
further development by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms located over the Bay of Campeche are 
associated with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of 
this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while 
it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression 
could form late in the week when the system moves northward into 
the central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy 
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern 
Mexico during the next several days.  Please consult products from 
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A strong tropical wave just offshore of west Africa is producing 
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Some development 
of this system is possible during the next few days before a 
combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any 
chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical 
Atlantic Ocean late week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA...
...HEADING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... 

11:00 AM EDT Mon Jun 14

Location: 35.0°N 73.7°W

Moving: NE at 21 mph

Min pressure: 1006 mb

Max sustained: 35 mph

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/