RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...09:02AM EDT

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS

JUNE 22, 2021...09:02AM EDT

INVEST EAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  THIS ARE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.  THIS WAVE IS UNDER INVESTIGATION BY NHC AND HAS A 30% CHANCE OF FORMATION THROUGH 5-DAYS.  THE GFS MODEL HAS DROPPED THE DISTURBANCE TURNING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF, BUT THERE IS NOTHING NEW WITH THAT.  LONG RANGE FORECAST IS UNRELIABLE.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT INTO NEXT WEEK.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221142
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in coverage associated with 
the tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the Windward 
Islands. Some additional development of this disturbance is possible 
over the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less 
conducive for further organization by Thursday. The system is 
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi