...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE OCT 10, 2021

 NATL. HURRICANE CENTER TROPIC OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101704
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association 
with a large, non-tropical low pressure area located about 80 miles 
south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  An Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance aircraft that investigated the low earlier today 
found that the system was still producing a small area of 
gale-force winds just offshore the North Carolina outer banks. 
However, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to 
decrease the chance for further development of this system. The low 
is forecast to move slowly northeastward today, with the center 
remaining just offshore the eastern North Carolina coast this 
afternoon and tonight.  Interests in that area should continue to 
monitor the progress of this system and refer to local National 
Weather Service office products for more information. Regardless of 
development, intermittent periods of locally heavy rains and gusty 
winds will affect southeastern and eastern portions of North 
Carolina during the next day or so.  Additional information on this 
low pressure system, including gale warnings, can be found in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a vigorous 
tropical wave located about 500 miles east-southeast of the Windward 
Islands is producing a concentrated area of cloudiness and 
thunderstorms near the wave axis. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be marginally conducive for some additional development 
of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph 
over the next few days. The disturbance is expected to approach the 
central and northern Lesser Antilles by late Monday and early 
Tuesday, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of 
this system.  Regardless of development, the system will produce 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the 
central and northern Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, and across the 
Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart