...RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...OCT 11, 2021

 

NATL. HURRICANE CENTER TROPIC OUTLOOK

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111150
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 350 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and a few 
thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible during the next day 
or two while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph 
toward the Lesser Antilles. Strong upper-level winds are expected to 
limit further development on Tuesday.  Regardless of development, 
the system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
across portions of the central and northern Lesser Antilles on 
Tuesday, and across the Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands on 
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with another tropical 
wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea has decreased since 
yesterday. Environmental conditions are not expected to support 
development of this system for the next day or two. However, some 
gradual development is possible beginning on Wednesday when the 
system nears the southeastern Bahamas. Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser 
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola during the next couple of 
days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky