...INVEST 95L AND ATLANTIC INVEST UPDATE...06-30-2022...0255 PM EDT...

 

Invest 95L has a slight chance for development before it moves on shore.  So far this weather disturbance is mainly a flood threat.  Heed the warnings when issued for your areas.

Atlantic disturbance has a low chance for development as it track into the eastern Caribbean where the upper level conditions are unfavorable for development.

The way things are looking with MJO Oscillation  July should be less active than June was.  So lets enjoy a bit if quiet time before the August and September rolls around.

Azores high is still in control and any development if at all would track westward for now as we seen with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

RTW

National Hurricane Center 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301745
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Western Gulf of Mexico:
Recent satellite and radar imagery indicate that showers and 
thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the 
southern coast of Texas have changed little in organization since 
this morning. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward 
and inland over southeastern Texas later today. Slow development of 
this system is possible while the low remains over water and it 
could still become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves 
inland. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along 
portions of the Texas coast for the next two days. For more 
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products 
issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter plane is currently enroute to investigate the 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward 
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any 
development of this system should be slow to occur while the wave 
moves west-northwestward during the next day or two. The wave is 
forecast to move over the Windward Islands on Friday and then over 
the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development 
is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/D. Zelinsky