000 ABNT20 KNHC 291739 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Southeastern Caribbean Sea: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea to the north of Venezuela. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Northern Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico have increased since this morning but remain disorganized. This system is forecast to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. Some slow development is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland over Texas on Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast for the next few days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is currently investigating the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Slow development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward for the next few days. The wave is forecast to move over the Windward Islands late Friday or early Saturday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend, where further development is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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