...WATCHING THREE DISTURBANCE...AGGRESSIVE WAVES ARE BACK TO BACK EARLY IN THE SEASON...

 

As I mentioned earlier in June the Ensemble models were showing plenty of waves rolling off the coast of Africa.  We have a total of 4 over the Atlantic at this time and two of them are being monitored for development.  

The one over the Gulf is associated with a surface trough and not a wave.  So far this morning the only one that has a good chance for development into a tropical cyclone is invest 94L.  

That system has the potential to be a strong storms as it tracks in the lower latitudes toward Windward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, Islands north of Venezuela/Columbia, and Nicaragua and Honduras.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271125
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 900 miles east-southeast of the 
southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the next couple of days before the system reaches the 
Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward 
across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system 
this afternoon.  Interests in the Windward Islands and along the 
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this 
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for 
portions of these areas later today.  Regardless of development, 
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the 
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Northern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf 
of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure.  Development 
of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves 
west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of 
Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern 
Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions could become conducive for 
gradual development later this week while the system moves 
west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch