Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: ...WHILE INVEST 91L IS BACK OVER THE YUCATAN, STRONG STORMS BLEW UP TO THE OVER NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...

Good morning I hope you have a blessed day! Last night as Invest 91L moved away from the Yucatan coast temporarily, it took advantage of the warm waters of the Northwest Caribbean. Latest satellite shows very strong thunderstorms with cold cloud tops over the northwest Caribbean. Invest 91 center has tracked back toward the northwest this morning and is located inland over northeast Yucatan. This is in response to an approaching cold front and a strong upper level disturbance producing strong to severe storms over Arkansas. This front induces a northward pull like a magnet for other low pressure systems and also slows them down. As that front progresses east and southeast it will influence 91L to turn back toward the northeast begin moving toward the Florida Peninsula. Depending on the trajectory of the low, will determine who gets the heavy rains from the northwest Caribbean.

Upper level shear is still strong to moderate so will see how 91L responds to these winds. Isolated tornado heavy rains possible as 91L moves over Florida from the southwest.

Be Storm Ready!

RTW

400 
ABNT20 KNHC 021150
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion 
of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula.  Despite strong upper-level 
winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or 
tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during 
the next day or two.  Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, 
and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this 
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required 
for some of these areas later today.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely 
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during 
the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida 
and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern 
Bahamas on Saturday.  These heavy rains could cause scattered to 
numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
Shower activity associated with a weak surface trough located about 
200 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas has 
diminished, and upper-level winds remain strong in the area.  
Development of this system is not expected while it moves 
northeastward at 5 to 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic during 
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven