...0200 PM EDT 08-31-2022 TROPICAL OUTLOOK...

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311745
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Data from a NOAA aircraft reconnaissance mission earlier today 
showed little change in organization of the area of low pressure 
located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. 
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, 
additional gradual development of this system is expected and a 
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of 
days.  The disturbance is forecast to move slowly 
west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern 
Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can be found 
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located just to the northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands 
have changed little since earlier today. Some gradual development is 
possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical 
depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next 
couple of days.  By late this week, environmental conditions are 
forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development. 
Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to 
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is showing signs of organization over the 
central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles west-southwest of the 
westernmost Azores.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression 
is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system 
drifts generally eastward.  Additional information on this system 
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch