...08:00 PM EDT TROPICAL UPDATE 08-31-2022...

 

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

 

000 
ABNT20 KNHC 312331
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands 
have gradually increased in organization over the past day or so. 
Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive,
only slight additional development of the system over the next few 
days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression.  The 
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward 
the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Recent satellite wind data indicate that a broad area of low 
pressure is located just to the northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Although shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the 
system has diminished since earlier today, there is still a 
potential for the system to become a short-lived tropical depression 
within the next day or so before environmental conditions become 
unfavorable for further development.  Regardless, the system could 
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands 
through Thursday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 850 miles west-southwest of 
the westernmost Azores has changed little in organization since 
earlier today.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression 
is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system 
drifts generally eastward.  Additional information on this system 
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown