Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: ...91L SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH A BURST OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS....WILL SEE IF THIS IS TEMPORARY OR ITS A BEGINNING TO BECOME A DEPRESSION...

INVEST 91L SEEMS TO BE HAVING A GOOD MORNING. STRONG BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN WE COULD SEE 91L UPGRADED TO A DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH DRY AIR AND SOME SHEAR BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING IT AT THIS TIME. 91L CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DUE TO A WEEK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT TURN TO THE NORTH AND EAST DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF WHERE 91L IS LOCATED AT THIS TIME.

I MADE SOME TREND MODELS WITH PRESENT 12Z MODEL RUN AN FOUR OTHER PREVIOUS MODELS RUN. SO FAR THE ONLY ONE THAT SEEMS TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS THE UKMET MODELS. MORE THAN LIKELY THIS MODELS IS FORECASTING A TRACK FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM. WEAKER STORMS TEND TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD. ALL OTHERS TREND THIS SYSTEM NORTH AND EVENTUALLY EAST.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311148
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles 
has changed little this morning.  Although environmental conditions 
are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of 
this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form 
within the next couple of days.  The disturbance is forecast to move 
slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the 
northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located between the west coast of Africa and the 
Cabo Verde Islands have become slightly better organized. Some 
gradual development is possible, and the system could become a 
short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during 
the next couple of days.  By late this week, environmental 
conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for 
further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally 
heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through 
Thursday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone 
over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles 
west-southwest of the westernmost Azores.  Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or 
subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days 
while the system drifts generally eastward.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch