...STORM INVESTIGATION 99L FORMATION CHANCE INCREASED THIS MORNING FROM MED 40% TO 60% AS THIS SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE B.O.C.......

 

STORM INVESTIGATION 99LIS QUICKLY ORGANIZING IN THE B.O.C. (BAY OF CAMPECHE) OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  

NHC DECIDED AT 10:30 AM THIS MORNING TO INCREASE THE FORMATION CHANCE FROM MEDIUM 40% TO 60% WITHIN 48 HRS AND 5-DAYS.  

99L IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING.  INTENSITY MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR MAYBE A TROPICAL STORM MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.  

I SAY YOU CAN'T RULE OUT A LOWER CAT 1 HURRICANE IF IT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF TODAY AND TOMORROW.  SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

RTW

838 
ABNT20 KNHC 191449
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1050 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in 
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms 
associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern 
Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche are getting better organized.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional 
development, and a tropical depression could form later today or
on Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the 
southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico.  However, by Saturday 
night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern 
Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
system this afternoon.  Interests along the northeastern coast of 
Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of 
this system.  Regardless of development, this system could bring 
locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern 
Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven