...NOTE I JUST ADDED THE CORRECT INVEST IUTLOOK MAP...EARLY MORNING REVIEW OF THE TROPICS...

 

Good morning!

I Just did a quick review of models a surface maps.

The storm invest closer to the Lesser Antilles continues to show signs of organization.  This system is forecast to generally track west-northwestward towards the northern Leeward Islands.

The 00z Euro shows some slow development and a track over the greater Antilles, Virgin Islands St Thomas,  Puerto Rico and exiting north of Dominican Republic.  At that time in the forecast it tracks slowly north as a hurricane and stalls out east of the Bahamas, due to blocking high pressures.  Remember forecast beyond 5 days are subject for error.

The GFS begs to differ not developing this system at all.

However, the CMC (GEM) model does develop this system in the Gulf as a hurricane after passing over the Florida straits as a Depression or Tropical storm.

The 00z ICON model shows this system passing over the northern Leeward as a tropical depression or tropical storm and turning slowly northward east of Puerto rico and becomes a hurricane and also becomes stationary due to a blocking high pressure.

There is a front that is forecast to become stationary across the northern Gulf and across Central Florida.  This would block a northerly track if it were to stay there, but it is forecast to pull away maybe leaving a trough that could produce more heavy rains over a Florida and the Southeast.  

So these forecast are fluent and conutinue change, so we will monitor this system closely.  

RTW

National Hurricane Center 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131113
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Conventional and Low-earth orbit satellite data indicate that 
showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward 
Islands have increased and become better organized since yesterday 
afternoon.  Further development of this system is possible and a 
tropical depression could form over the next several days while it 
generally moves westward to west-northwestward over the central 
tropical Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little overnight in 
association with a tropical wave approaching the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable, and any 
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves 
westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic 
through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts